scholarly journals Too-Systemic-to-Fail: What Option Markets Imply about Sector-Wide Government Guarantees

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (6) ◽  
pp. 1278-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Kelly ◽  
Hanno Lustig ◽  
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007–2009 financial crisis in US option markets, and we show that a large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the cost of financial sector crash insurance during the crisis. The difference in costs between out-of-the-money put options for individual banks and puts on the financial sector index increases four-fold from its precrisis 2003–2007 level. We provide evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks and explains the increase in the basket-index put spread. (JEL E44, G01, G13, G21, G28, H81)

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 517-541
Author(s):  
Dam Cho

This paper analyzes implied volatilities (IVs), which are computed from trading records of the KOSPI 200 index option market from January 2005 to December 2014, to examine major characteristics of the market pricing behavior. The data includes only daily closing prices of option transactions for which the daily trading volume is larger than 300 contracts. The IV is computed using the Black-Scholes option pricing model. The empirical findings are as follows; Firstly, daily averages of IVs have shown very similar behavior to historical volatilities computed from 60-day returns of the KOSPI 200 index. The correlation coefficient of IV of the ATM call options to historical volatility is 0.8679 and that of the ATM put options is 0.8479. Secondly, when moneyness, which is measured by the ratio of the strike price to the spot price, is very large or very small, IVs of call and put options decrease days to maturity gets longer. This is partial evidence of the jump risk inherent in the stochastic process of the spot price. Thirdly, the moneyness pattern showed heavily skewed shapes of volatility smiles, which was more apparent during the global financial crises period from 2007 to 2009. Behavioral reasons can explain the volatility smiles. When the moneyness is very small, the deep OTM puts are priced relatively higher due to investors’ crash phobia and the deep ITM calls are valued higher due to investors’ overconfidence and confirmation biases. When the moneyness is very large, the deep OTM calls are priced higher due to investors’ hike expectation and the deep ITM puts are valued higher due to overconfidence and confirmation biases. Fourthly, for almost all moneyness classes and for all sub-periods, the IVs of puts are larger than the IVs of calls. Also, the differences of IVs of deep OTM put ranges minus IVs of deep OTM calls, which is known to be a measure of crash phobia or hike expectation, shows consistent positive values for all sub-periods. The difference in the financial crisis period is much bigger than in other periods. This suggests that option traders had a stronger crash phobia in the financial crisis.


Author(s):  
SAFITRI NURHIDAYATI ◽  
RIZKI AMELYA SYAM

This study aims to analyze whether the difference that occurs in the cost of raw materials, direct labor, and factory overhead costs between the standard costs and the actual costs in PLTU LATI is a difference that is favorable or unfavorable. Data collection techniques with field research and library research. The analytical tool used is the analysis of the difference in raw material costs, the difference in direct labor costs and the difference in factory overhead costs. The hypothesis in this study is that the difference allegedly occurs in the cost of raw materials, direct labor costs, and factory overhead costs at PT Indo Pusaka Berau Tanjung Redeb is a favorable difference. The results showed that the difference in the cost of producing MWh electricity at PT Indo Pusaka Berau Tanjung Redeb in 2018, namely the difference in the price of raw material costs Rp. 548,029.80, - is favorable, the difference in quantity of raw materials is Rp. 957,216,602, - is (favorable) , the difference in direct labor costs Rp 2,602,642,084, - is (unfavorable), and the difference in factory overhead costs Rp 8,807,051,422, - is (favorable) This shows that the difference in the overall production cost budget is favorable or profitable. This beneficial difference shows that the company is really able to reduce production costs optimally in 2018.  


Author(s):  
Jan Abel Olsen

Chapter 19 starts by distinguishing between the two contrasting perspectives that an economic evaluation would take: the healthcare sector perspective versus the societal perspective. The former is considered a ‘narrow analysis’ which includes only the costs accruing within the healthcare sector, while the latter represents a ‘broad analysis’ that accounts for all resource implications in all sectors of the economy. After an investigation into various types of costs, a ‘limited societal perspective’ is suggested to be more appropriate than either of the two ‘extreme perspectives’. The chapter continues with a discussion of the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold and explains the difference between a demand side- versus a supply-side approach to determining a threshold value for a QALY.


Author(s):  
Federico Solla ◽  
Eytan Ellenberg ◽  
Virginie Rampal ◽  
Julien Margaine ◽  
Charles Musoff ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: To analyze the cost of the terror attack in Nice in a single pediatric institution. Methods: We carried out descriptive analyses of the data coming from the Lenval University Children’s Hospital of Nice database after the July 14, 2016 terror attack. The medical cost for each patient was estimated from the invoice that the hospital sent to public insurance. The indirect costs were calculated from the hospital’s accounting, as the items that were previously absent or the difference between costs in 2016 versus the previous year. Results: The costs total 1.56 million USD, corresponding to 2% of Lenval Hospital’s 2016 annual budget. Direct medical costs represented 9% of the total cost. The indirect costs were related to human resources (overtime, sick leave), revenue shortfall, and security and psychiatric reinforcement. Conclusion: Indirect costs had a greater impact than did direct medical costs. Examining the level and variety of direct and indirect costs will lead to a better understanding of the consequences of terror acts and to improved preparation for future attacks.


Author(s):  
Theresa Schäfer ◽  
Sebastian Utz

AbstractWe study the financial stability of Values-Based Banks (VBBs) and Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs), and how regulatory changes in the aftermath of the financial crisis affected bank stability. These two types of banks allow contrasting an environmental and social impact banking approach to a conventional one. VBBs exhibit significantly higher financial stability before and during the financial crisis. However, regulatory changes in the aftermath of the financial crisis requiring higher capital buffer, have significantly affected GSIBs and rendered the difference in stability levels insignificant.


2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 662-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben G. Andersen ◽  
Nicola Fusari ◽  
Viktor Todorov

2000 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Eichner ◽  
Mark McClellan ◽  
David A. Wise

We are engaged in a long-term project to analyze the determinants of health care cost differences across firms. An important first step is to summarize the nature of expenditure differences across plans. The goal of this article is to develop methods for identifying and quantifying those factors that account for the wide differences in health care expenditures observed across plans.We consider eight plans that vary in average expenditure for individuals filing claims, from a low of $1,645 to a high of $2,484. We present a statistically consistent method for decomposing the cost differences across plans into component parts based on demographic characteristics of plan participants, the mix of diagnoses for which participants are treated, and the cost of treatment for particular diagnoses. The goal is to quantify the contribution of each of these components to the difference between average cost and the cost in a given firm. The demographic mix of plan enrollees accounts for wide differnces in cost ($649). Perhaps the most noticeable feature of the results is that, after adjusting for demographic mix, the difference in expenditures accounted for by the treatment costs given diagnosis ($807) is almost as wide as the unadjusted range in expenditures ($838). Differences in cost due to the different illnesses that are treated, after adjusting for demographic mix, also accounts for large differences in cost ($626). These components of cost do not move together; for example, demographic mix may decrease expenditure under a particular plan while the diagnosis mix may increase costs.Our hope is that understanding the reasons for cost differences across plans will direct more focused attention to controlling costs. Indeed, this work is intended as an important first step toward that goal.


Author(s):  
Gregory M. Foggitt ◽  
Andre Heymans ◽  
Gary W. Van Vuuren ◽  
Anmar Pretorius

Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011) stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk.Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised.Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK) of the South African (SA) banking sector between 2001 and 2013.Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK.Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly.Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst-case scenario analyses (such as those in this study) could aid in determining exactly how much capital banks could need in order to be considered sufficiently capitalised during a financial crisis, and therefore safe from systemic risk.


2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
John F Cogan ◽  
R. Glenn Hubbard ◽  
Daniel Kessler

In this paper, we use publicly available data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - Insurance Component (MEPS-IC) to investigate the effect of Massachusetts' health reform plan on employer-sponsored insurance premiums. We tabulate premium growth for private-sector employers in Massachusetts and the United States as a whole for 2004 - 2008. We estimate the effect of the plan as the difference in premium growth between Massachusetts and the United States between 2006 and 2008—that is, before versus after the plan—over and above the difference in premium growth for 2004 to 2006. We find that health reform in Massachusetts increased single-coverage employer-sponsored insurance premiums by about 6 percent, or $262. Although our research design has important limitations, it does suggest that policy makers should be concerned about the consequences of health reform for the cost of private insurance.


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