scholarly journals Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Eusepi ◽  
Bruce Preston
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Learning Dynamics ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

The value of communication is analyzed in a model in which agents' expectations need not be consistent with central bank policy. Without communication, the Taylor principle is not sufficient for macroeconomic stability: divergent learning dynamics are possible. Three communication strategies are contemplated to ensure consistency between private forecasts and monetary policy strategy: communicating the precise details of policy; communicating only the variables on which policy decisions are conditioned; and communicating the inflation target. The former strategies restore the Taylor principle as a sufficient condition for anchoring expectations. The latter strategy, in general, fails to protect against expectations-driven fluctuations. (JEL E32, E43, E52, E58)

Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication: Evidence from the Fed

2010 ◽  
pp. 5-22
Author(s):  
Carlo Rosa ◽  
Tim Breitenstein
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
News Shock ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Future Direction

This paper employs exogenous measures of monetary policy shocks directly derived from financial market information to investigate how the economy responds to the surprise component of monetary policy decisions as opposed to central bank announcements about future movements in the policy rate. We find that the U.S. economy strongly reacts to the news shock, the difference between what the central bank announces regarding the future direction of monetary policy and what the market expects it to announce. The responses of output and prices to the unexpected component of policy decisions regarding the federal funds target rate are weak and have implausible signs.

scholarly journals Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence

2008 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 910-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan S Blinder ◽  
Michael Ehrmann ◽  
Marcel Fratzscher ◽  
Jakob De Haan ◽  
David-Jan Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Real World ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Scholarly Literature ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Almost All

Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication—mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank's toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks' macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.

scholarly journals A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 73-107
Author(s):  
Mohammed M. Tumala ◽  
Babatunde S. Omotosho
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Text Mining ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Textual Data ◽  
Policy Communication ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Monetary Policy Transparency

This paper employs text-mining techniques to analyse the communication strategy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during the period 2004-2019. Since the policy communique released after each meeting of the CBN’s monetary policy committee (MPC) represents an important tool of central bank communication, we construct a corpus based on 87 policy communiques with a total of 123, 353 words. Having processed the textual data into a form suitable for analysis, we examined the readability, sentiments, and topics of the policy documents. While the CBN’s communication has increased substantially over the years, implying increased monetary policy transparency; the computed Coleman and Liau readability index shows that the word and sentence structures of the policy communiques have become more complex, thus reducing its readability. In terms of monetary policy sentiments, we find an average net score of -10.5 per cent, reflecting the level of policy uncertainties faced by the MPC over the sample period. In addition, our results indicate that the topics driving the linguistic contents of the communiques were influenced by the Bank’s policy objectives as well as the nature of shocks hitting the economy per period.

Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-393
Author(s):  
Ruttachai Seelajaroen ◽  
Pornanong Budsaratragoon ◽  
Boonlert Jitmaneeroj
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Monetary Policy Transparency

scholarly journals Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Blinder ◽  
Michael Ehrmann ◽  
Marcel Fratzscher ◽  
Jakob De Haan ◽  
David-Jan Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Central Bank Communication

Moderation Before the Storm

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre L. Siklos
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Current State ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment

This chapter provides an overview of the macroeconomic environment since 2000. The era is broken down into three periods: 2000–2006, 2007–2010, and 2011–present. Warnings of an imminent crisis were present before 2007, but generally they were ignored by self-satisfied policymakers. Pre-crisis, inflation control was the once rising and, seemingly, preeminent monetary policy strategy. A review, both pre- and post-GFC, of a wide variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators is included, with discussion of lesser known variables such as proxies for central bank communication and balance sheet indicators. These clearly enable us to identify interventions by central banks while also highlighting areas of continuing concern. In some respects (e.g. concerns about financial stability), everything has changed post-crisis, but in other respects (e.g. monetary policy strategy) fewer changes are apparent. The chapter concludes by arguing that there are reasons to be apprehensive about the current state of monetary policy and central banking.

scholarly journals Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations

2010 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 274-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Woodford
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Model Consistency ◽  
Long Run

The paper considers optimal monetary stabilization policy in a forward-looking model, when the central bank recognizes that private sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs that are close enough to model-consistency. It is found that commitment continues to be important for optimal policy, that the optimal long-run inflation target is unaffected by the degree of potential distortion of beliefs, and that optimal policy is even more history-dependent than if rational expectations are assumed. (JEL C62, D84, E13, E31, E32, E52)

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