scholarly journals Runoff Prediction Uncertainty of SWAT Caused by Model Parameters over the Upper Reach of Heihe River Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 02 (06) ◽  
pp. 358-363
Author(s):  
占玲 李
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 980-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidi Huo ◽  
Xiaofan Wang ◽  
Yan Liang ◽  
Cheng Jiang ◽  
Xiaolu Zheng

Abstract The likelihood of future global water shortages is increasing and further development of existing operational hydrologic models is needed to maintain sustainable development of the ecological environment and human health. In order to quantitatively describe the water balance factors and transformation relations, the objective of this article is to develop a distributed hydrologic model that is capable of simulating the surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) in irrigation areas. The model can be used as a tool for evaluating the long-term effects of water resource management. By coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models, a comprehensive hydrological model integrating SW and GW is constructed. The hydrologic response units for the SWAT model are exchanged with cells in the MODFLOW model. Taking the Heihe River Basin as the study area, 10 years of historical data are used to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis on model parameters. The developed model is run for a 40-year prediction period. The application of the developed coupling model shows that since the construction of the Heihe reservoir, the average GW level in the study area has declined by 6.05 m. The model can accurately simulate and predict the dynamic changes in SW and GW in the downstream irrigation area of Heihe River Basin and provide a scientific basis for water management in an irrigation district.


Author(s):  
R. He ◽  
B. Pang

Abstract. The increasing water problems and eco-environmental issues of Heihe River basin have attracted widespread attention. In this research, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model was selected to simulate the water cycle of the upstream in Heihe River basin. The GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) method was used to study the sensitivity of the model parameters and the uncertainty of model outputs. The results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficient coefficient was 0.62 in the calibration period and 0.64 in the validation period. Of the seven elected parameters, Dm (maximum baseflow that can occur from the third soil layer), Ws (fraction of the maximum soil moisture of the third soil layer where non-linear baseflow occurs), and d1 (soil depth of the first soil layer), were very sensitive, especially d1. Observed discharges were almost in the range of the 95% predicted confidence range.


2010 ◽  
Vol 113-116 ◽  
pp. 317-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Su ◽  
Hai Yang Shang

For a long time, these are deeply entrenched in people’s thinking and the institutions or policies of economic activities that the resources are unlimited and the environment exists priceless. Environmentally augmented household livelihood assets were collected from 300 sample households within the HeiHe River Basin. Results show that physical assets possess a maximum value (0.609) and natural assets possess relatively low values (0.241). The human capital, natural capital, physical capital, financial capital and social capital are all important factors to influence the responses. An increment of one unit should reduce the occurrence to participate in ecological compensation for natural capital. Therefore, the local governments should actively introduce the relevant supporting measures in order to provide more non-agricultural employment opportunities for farmers.


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