scholarly journals Co-Exceedances in Eurozone Sovereign Bond Markets: Was There a Contagion during the Global Financial Crisis and the Eurozone Debt Crisis?

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-112
Author(s):  
Dilip K. Das

The principal thesis of this paper is growth and development of the debt securities markets in Asia, which resulted in financial deepening. In the post-Asian financial crisis period development of Asian currency dominated long-term bond markets was given a high priority. Conception and launch of the ABMI initiative proved to be exceedingly meaningful in this regard. Additionally, with an objective to develop well-capitalized regional bond markets, the EMEAP group of central banks launched the Asian Bond Fund or the ABF1 and ABF2. This process was exceedingly helpful in providing opportunities for learning the game of issuing and investing in bonds. In the post-Asian crisis phase central bankers and finance ministries in several Asian economies were successful in their efforts to develop domestic or local currency bond markets, which included both the government and corporate bond sectors. The paper discusses both the government and corporate bond markets in Asia. During the decade of the 2000s domestic debt securities markets in several Asian economies expanded dramatically. This paper shows that the global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have had both direct and indirect impacts over the global economy. However, statistical data show that the global financial crisis (2007–2009) had only a minor impact on the Asian bond issue trend.


Author(s):  
Nauro F. Campos ◽  
Paul De Grauwe ◽  
Yuemei Ji

Structural reform policies move like the business cycle. There are moments when these are implemented with great fervour and others when they are put on the back burner or even dismantled. After the global financial crisis, and in particular the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, many countries were forced by creditor countries or were self-imposed to apply deep reforms to their product markets and especially to their labour markets. Now that Europe is recovering, the pressure to implement structural reforms has abated....


2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 775-789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvo Dajcman

This paper examines the symmetry of correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics between eight Eurozone countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) in the period from January 3, 2000 to August 31, 2011. Asymmetry of correlation is investigated pair-wise by applying the test of Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, and Guofu Zhou (2007). Whereas the test of Hong, Tu, and Zhou (2007) is static, the present paper provides also a dynamic version of the test and identifies time periods when the correlation of Eurozone sovereign bond yield dynamics became asymmetric. We identified seven pairs of sovereign bond markets for which the null hypothesis of symmetry in correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics can be rejected. Calculating rolling-window exceedance correlation, we found that the time-varying upper- (i.e. for positive yield changes) and lower-tail correlations (i.e. for negative yield changes) for pair-wise observed sovereign bond markets normally follow each other closely, yet during some time periods (for most pair-wise observed countries, these periods are around the September 11 attack on the New York City WTC and around the start of the Greek debt crisis) the difference in correlation does increase. The results show that the upper- and lower-tail correlation was symmetric before the Eurozone debt crisis for most of the pair-wise observed sovereign bond markets but has become much less symmetric since then.


Author(s):  
Alexia Thomaidou ◽  
Dimitris Kenourgios

This chapter investigates the impact of the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in ETFs across regions and segments. In particular, two tests are taking place, with the first one to examine if there is evidence of contagion effect and the second one to test the affection of risks in each pair of ETFs. The evidence across the stable period and the two crisis periods suggests the existence of the transmission of shocks from the Global Financial ETF to regional and sectoral ETFs. However, there is evidence that some of the ETFs remain less unaffected during both crises and some of them are immune. Moreover, the authors examine the impact of several control variables, which represent various risks, to the correlation of each pair of ETFs and the results show the influence of the interest rate risk and interbank liquidity risk during the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis.


Author(s):  
Stella Ladi ◽  
Vivian Spyropoulou

The Greek crisis started in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis of 2008, and it officially ended in August 2018 when Greece exited the Third Economic Adjustment Programme that it had signed with its international lenders to avoid default. Greece had to seek help from international lenders, including the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and, in the last program, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), three times (2010, 2012, and 2015). The crisis soon spread to other European Monetary Union (EMU) countries—namely Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Cyprus—and it was transformed into a Eurozone crisis, with some commonalities but with different characteristics in each case. The Greek crisis was a sovereign debt crisis that resulted from a continuous aggravation of the national economic indicators, such as growth, inflation, and unemployment, serious long term structural shortcomings, and the pressure from the global financial crisis. The economic crisis was soon translated into a political crisis that shook the Greek party system and strengthened more radical parties such as the left-wing Syriza and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn. Strong one-party governments became a memory of the past and were replaced by short-lived coalition governments. The economic pressure also led to a serious social crisis with rising poverty levels, unprecedented numbers of homeless, and a welfare system unable to cope with the increasing demands. It posed questions about the shape of Greece’s political and social institutions, its legal system and Constitution, and its public administration’s capability to cope with the crisis and implement the conditionality attached to the three economic adjustment programs. Last but not least, the Greek crisis brought into fore the weaknesses and discrepancies of the EMU and was the motive behind important structural reforms, such as the creation of new financial assistance and surveillance mechanisms, including the ESM, as well as the strengthening of informal institutions such as the Euro summits. The discussion was soon extended to a questioning of the viability of the European Union (EU) project, the role of Germany, and the changing Europeanization mechanisms. The bibliography about the Greek crisis developed quickly and covers economic, political, social, and legal issues concerning not only Greece, but also the EU as a whole, taking the case of Greece as a starting point.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (02) ◽  
pp. 1850008 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID E. ALLEN ◽  
MICHAEL McALEER ◽  
ROBERT J. POWELL ◽  
ABHAY K. SINGH

This paper presents an application of a recently developed approach by Matteson and James ( 2014 ) for the analysis of change points in a dataset, namely major financial market indices converted to financial return series. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in the distribution of a set of time-ordered variables. The approach involves the non-parametric estimation of both the number of change points and the positions at which they occur. The approach is general and does not involve assumptions about the nature of the distributions involved or the type of change beyond the assumption of the existence of the [Formula: see text] absolute moment, for some [Formula: see text]. The estimation procedure is based on hierarchical clustering and the application of both divisive and agglomerative algorithms. The method is used to evaluate the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the US, French, German, UK, Japanese and Chinese markets, as represented by the S&P500, CAC, DAX, FTSE All Share, Nikkei 225 and Shanghai A share Indices, respectively, from 2003 to 2013. The approach is used to explore the timing and the number of change points in the datasets corresponding to the GFC and subsequent European Debt Crisis.


2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-256
Author(s):  
Kristóf Gyódi

This paper analyses the pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the crises in the Central and Eastern European countries. Panel data are used to estimate the determinants of government bond spreads in three different time periods: before the crisis, during the global financial crisis, and during the European debt crisis. The econometric model includes interactions between the explanatory variables and the crisis dummies. This specification enables the coefficients to change during the crises. The empirical analysis confirms a statistically significant relationship between sovereign risk and macroeconomic fundamental variables. Additionally, the results suggest an increase in the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals during the financial crisis. The analysis also supports that sovereign credit ratings and exchange rate risk have a significant impact on government bond spreads.


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