Transmission Channels between Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Econometric Analysis Comprising Monetary Factors

Contemporary literature continues to foster discussion whether financial development is important for economic growth. In the clash of theoretical arguments, the prevailing idea is that finance exerts a direct positive influence on GDP growth. However, the presence of theoretical counterarguments and contradictory results of empirical studies suggest that scientists, in search of an answer about the direction and power of the net effect, should develop methods of empirical analysis, and the very mystery of the relationship between finance and growth will finally be solved exclusively empirically. In this paper, the authors contribute to the development of the ‘finance-growth’ literature by answering some existing questions concerning the transmission channels from finance to growth, relying on more recent data compared to already conducted studies. We use panel data covering the period 1995 to 2019 for 168 countries. In addition, the paper touches on the problem of studying the exogenous conditions of such channels, considering the assumption that among these conditions there may be those that hinder the impact of financial deepening on economic growth. Our focus is on monetary conditions, and in the empirical part of the study, we touch upon the problem of the influence of price stability on the operation of these transmission channels. The methods of the conducted study are based on the dynamic panel data analysis techniques (System GMM). The novelty of this paper lies in the development of the modern theory of the financial sector transmission mechanism in the economic growth context. The main result of the study is that productivity channel is the most reliable transmission channel of financial deepening to economic growth. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this channel remains virtually unaffected by inflation. The channel of capital accumulation should be considered less reliable (in terms of statistical reliability of estimates obtained), but it has turned out to be a more economically significant transmission channel. This channel is sensitive to the inflation factor in certain categories of countries. Finally, as follows from the estimates gained, the non-linearity of the “finance-growth” relationship can be explained by the non-linearity of the variable responsible for the capital accumulation channel.

Institutional Quality and Industrial Growth: A Causality Analysis

The research study investigates the causal links between institutional quality and industrial output growth in Nigeria for the periods 1996:Q1-2018:Q4. Institutional quality was delineated into three i.e. economic institution (government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption), financial institution (contract intensive money, lending rate, and financial deepening), and political institution (voice and accountability, and political stability and absence of violence). The study computed the Granger causality test using both the VECM and the Toda and Yamamoto [1] and Dolado and Lutkepohl [2] (TYDL) augmented VAR procedure. The causality result in the short run showed that none of the institutional quality variables have a causal effect on industrial output growth but the feedback was reported. In the long run, a bi-causal relationship was reported from government effectiveness, control of corruption, financial deepening, and voice and accountability to industrial growth, whereas, a one-way directional relation was found running from industrial growth to regulatory quality and political stability & absence of violence. Thus, there is a need for the government to intensify efforts towards improving the extent people can challenge her power and authority because these play significant roles in the development level of Nigerian industries.

Does Financial Deepening Cause Liquidity Problems for Banks? Evidence from Nigeria

Attempt to facilitate economic growth makes the Central Banks to formulate monetary policies that seek to deepen the provision of financial resources to target sectors. Since Banks are the main channels through which monetary policies are executed, we attempted to examine whether financial deepening cause liquidity problem among Nigerian banks in this study. We employed time series analytical techniques to analyze selected financial deepening indicators and data for banking system liquidity between 1981 and 2019. The financial deepening variables used include of broad money to the gross domestic product (GDP) ratio; credit to private sector to the GDP ratio; ratio of commercial banks liabilities to the GDP; financial sector contribution to the GDP and ratio of market capitalization to the GDP. On the other hand, the liquidity of the banking system is proxy by its loan/deposit ratio for the period under study. We estimated the statistical properties of the variables examined and conducted some pre-estimation tests (stationarity and co-integration) to ascertain choice estimation techniques. We used a vector error correction mechanism to investigate long and short-run effects of financial deepening on Nigerian banking system liquidity. Both the long run vector autoregressive (VAR) and the short run and vector error correction (VEC) models results showed that there is a positive but statistically insignificant relationship between banking system liquidity and financial deepening variables. In addition, the results of the Granger causality between the dependent and independent variables revealed that there exists no causal relationship between the liquidity of the banking system and financial deepening. These findings imply that financial deepening did not impair banks’ liquidity position in Nigeria during the years under review. The study concluded that financial deepening does not cause liquidity problem for banks in Nigeria; rather, if well managed, can have positive effect on it. In the light of this, the study recommends that banks should re-strategize in the implementation of financial deepening policies that are liquidity friendly and that the Central Bank of Nigeria, should formulate policies that will not only focus on credit and loan beneficiaries, but also on the banks.

Effect of financial deepening on economic growth: Does it encourage income group transition?

The rapid growth of financial deepening raises the problem of its effect, beneficial for economic development. This paper aims to demonstrate the relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth, GNI per capita) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) in 142 countries, split into four income groups, over 2000–2020, using correlation analysis and data from the World Bank and the IMF. Besides, a comparative analysis of domestic credit to the private sector, economic freedom, Gini index, total government expenditure and national savings of countries that increased their income group status over 2011–2020 is presented. Financial deepening (increased credit availability and expansion of domestic credit to the private sector) encourages economic growth (via GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth). Although the presence of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita growth) and financial depth (domestic credit to private sector and credit availability) over 1991–2020 is insufficient, there is a linear relationship between GNI per capita and credit availability, between credit availability and domestic credit to the private sector for the same sample of countries over 2000–2020. Meanwhile, there is a tendency towards a decrease in the correlation between GNI per capita and GDP per capita growth. Given the revealed linear correlation between domestic credit to the private sector and GNI per capita, financial deepening positively impacts income growth, and this dependence strengthens with increasing income levels. Target values of domestic credit to the private sector are proposed for the income group transition. AcknowledgmentThe paper was funded as a part of the “Relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Ukraine” research project (No. 0121U110766), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

Application of regression function model based on panel data in bank resource allocation financial risk management

Based on the traditional form of the endogenous growth model, and for it to increase the micro-foundation that includes the homogeneous and representative bank resource allocation, this paper constructs an endogenous economic growth model that includes the investment structure of the residential sector and financial deepening. Using China’s prefecture-level data proves that due to the inherent difference between the central planner’s single equilibrium solution and the family’s decentralised equilibrium solution, when the residential sector’s preference for real estate investment causes the investment structure to deviate from the optimal level of society, the increase in the proportion of real estate investment The allocation efficiency of financial resources has a significant inhibitory effect and drags down the realisation of long-term potential economic growth. In the absence of a central planner in a market economy, increasing leverage may not mean financial deepening, but may reduce financial efficiency (FEt) and accumulate systemic financial risks.

The Protective Effect of Digital Financial Inclusion on Agricultural Supply Chain during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from China

Financial inclusion plays a positive role in protecting agriculture during or after disaster. This paper focuses on the protective effect of digital financial inclusion on the agricultural supply chain and analyzes three mechanisms of the protective effect: financial widening, financial deepening, and financial services digitization. Based on the Gravity Equation, we conduct an empirical study using agricultural logistics and digital financial inclusion data from China. The regression results indicate that a 1% increase in the digital financial inclusion, measured by the Peking University Digital Inclusion Index, increases agricultural trade during the COVID-19 pandemic by approximately 1.6%. Furthermore, heterogeneous protective effects exist between regions in China. Digital financial inclusion is more effective in the Eastern regions in protecting the ASC than in other regions. This paper enriches the understanding of financial inclusion in helping agriculture supply chain recovery.