scholarly journals Exit Strategies From the Crisis on the Example of the Baltic States

Equilibrium ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Michał Moszyński
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Core Element ◽  
General Direction ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Baltic

The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic policy of the Baltic states in response to the financial crisis of the years 2007-2010. The considerations are based on the thesis that the general direction of the macroeconomic policy chosen by the analyzed countries is correct. The consistent maintaining of a fixed exchange rate during the crisis aroused much controversy and was criticized in the literature. In the study, particular attention was paid to the issues of exchange rate, which has constituted the key element of the policy, both in the initial period of transformation, as well as in the times of recession. The first part of the study concentrates on the specificities of small open economies of the Baltic countries and on the determinants of their monetary and exchange rate policy. Subsequently, the economic situation of the Baltic republics in the face of the crisis was characterized, indicating the main factors increasing their vulnerability to economic shocks. The next subject of the analysis was the macroeconomic policies in response to the deep recession. The considerations were intended to assess the validity of maintaining a fixed exchange rate policy as a core element of an anti-crisis strategy. The methods used in solving the scientific problem were the critical literature studies and the analysis of macroeconomic indicators.

scholarly journals Macro-economic Policies and Energy Security—Implications for a Chronic Energy Deficit Country

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-273
Author(s):  
Inayat U. Mangla ◽  
Jamshed Y. Uppal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Energy Deficit ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper assesses the energy sector’s foreign exchange requirements for meeting energy consumption and for capital expenditures, and identifies its implications for the country’s macroeconomic policy and management. We develop a conceptual model for projecting the energy sector’s long-term requirements for foreign exchange. The model indicates that the country’s chronic dependence on oil imports is likely to expose the economy to high and volatile oil prices. A fundamental issue for Pakistan is how the energy projects requiring large inflows of foreign capital and technology will be financed. The main implication of our analysis is that there will be continuing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources. The demand for foreign exchange by the year 2024-25 is projected to be US$ 20-21 billion without the FDI in new power generation. However, when we include the requirements of foreign exchange for capital expenditure, the total FX requirements are in the range of US$ 23- 24 billion. An implication of the country’s chronic energy deficiency is that the macroeconomic policies, particularly the foreign exchange rate policy, need to be redefined to reflect the projected demands on hard currencies and their expected scarcity value. It is likely that Pakistan will remain dependent on foreign imports to meet its energy requirements for a long time and will need to generate commensurate foreign exchange resources to ensure longterm energy security. JEL classification: E66, F37, Q43 Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Energy Security

Some Issues of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Russia in 2000-2006 and in the Short-term Outlook

2007 ◽  
pp. 26-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Drobyshevsky ◽  
P. Kadochnikov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Budgetary Policy ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper analyzes the problems of macroeconomic policy in Russia in 2000-2006. The authors estimate the trends of realization of monetary, credit, currency and budgetary policy under favorable and unfavorable external economic conditions. Different variants of government and central bank reaction to the oil prices conservation or decline are considered. Different scenarios of macroeconomic policy realization in 2007-2011 are modeled. The results of the computation are presented.

Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate Fixing

2004 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
O. Osipova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Pass Through

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Stability

2010 ◽  
pp. 29-43
Author(s):  
S. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Managed Floating

The Bank of Russia intends to introduce inflation targeting policy and exchange rate free floating regime in three years. Exogenous shocks absorption which stabilizes the real sector of economy is usually considered to be one of the advantages of free floating exchange rate policy. However, our research based on the analysis of 25 world largest economies exchange rates and industrial production during the crisis of 2008-2009 does not confirm this hypothesis. The article also analyzes additional risks associated with free floating exchange rate regime in Russia and presents some arguments in favor of managed floating exchange rate regime.

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

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