scholarly journals Macro-economic Policies and Energy Security—Implications for a Chronic Energy Deficit Country

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-273
Author(s):  
Inayat U. Mangla ◽  
Jamshed Y. Uppal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Energy Deficit ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper assesses the energy sector’s foreign exchange requirements for meeting energy consumption and for capital expenditures, and identifies its implications for the country’s macroeconomic policy and management. We develop a conceptual model for projecting the energy sector’s long-term requirements for foreign exchange. The model indicates that the country’s chronic dependence on oil imports is likely to expose the economy to high and volatile oil prices. A fundamental issue for Pakistan is how the energy projects requiring large inflows of foreign capital and technology will be financed. The main implication of our analysis is that there will be continuing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources. The demand for foreign exchange by the year 2024-25 is projected to be US$ 20-21 billion without the FDI in new power generation. However, when we include the requirements of foreign exchange for capital expenditure, the total FX requirements are in the range of US$ 23- 24 billion. An implication of the country’s chronic energy deficiency is that the macroeconomic policies, particularly the foreign exchange rate policy, need to be redefined to reflect the projected demands on hard currencies and their expected scarcity value. It is likely that Pakistan will remain dependent on foreign imports to meet its energy requirements for a long time and will need to generate commensurate foreign exchange resources to ensure longterm energy security. JEL classification: E66, F37, Q43 Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Energy Security

scholarly journals Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (190) ◽  
pp. 103-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Gligoric
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Policy

This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested).

The Iranian Foreign Exchange Policy And The Black Market for Dollars

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hashem Pesaran
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
The Face ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

As a result of the oil price shocks, the 1979 revolution, and the eight-year war with Iraq, fundamental changes have taken place in Iran's foreign exchange position as well as in its exchange rate policy. The viable data over the period 1979–1980 to 1988–1989 clearly show that, despite the revolutionary rhetoric, very little has been done to reduce the country's dependence on oil exports as a source of foreign exchange and government revenues. Instead, in the face of falling oil revenues and the country's increasing international isolation, coupled with the regime's unwillingness to incur foreign debt, the government has adopted a severe ‘import compression’ policy through selective tariffs and quotas, strict control of private and government imports by means of import licenses, and the imposition of foreign exchange allocations on government agencies. The result has been an ever-rising premium on the U.S. dollar in the ‘black’ market, a highly overvalued official exchange rate, a substantial increase in rent-seeking activities at the expense of production, a severe misallocation of resources, and loss of output and industrial capacity.

scholarly journals Exit Strategies From the Crisis on the Example of the Baltic States

Equilibrium ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Michał Moszyński
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Core Element ◽  
General Direction ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Baltic

The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic policy of the Baltic states in response to the financial crisis of the years 2007-2010. The considerations are based on the thesis that the general direction of the macroeconomic policy chosen by the analyzed countries is correct. The consistent maintaining of a fixed exchange rate during the crisis aroused much controversy and was criticized in the literature. In the study, particular attention was paid to the issues of exchange rate, which has constituted the key element of the policy, both in the initial period of transformation, as well as in the times of recession. The first part of the study concentrates on the specificities of small open economies of the Baltic countries and on the determinants of their monetary and exchange rate policy. Subsequently, the economic situation of the Baltic republics in the face of the crisis was characterized, indicating the main factors increasing their vulnerability to economic shocks. The next subject of the analysis was the macroeconomic policies in response to the deep recession. The considerations were intended to assess the validity of maintaining a fixed exchange rate policy as a core element of an anti-crisis strategy. The methods used in solving the scientific problem were the critical literature studies and the analysis of macroeconomic indicators.

Exchange Rate Misalignment and International Law

2011 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 423-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claus D. Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
International Law ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Trade Conflicts

History is replete with examples where states have interfered with foreign exchange markets in order to influence exchange rates. The trade conflicts between the two world wars, for instance, were fought not only via the imposition of tariffs, but also via competitive devaluations. Since then, straightforward competitive devaluations have become a rare phenomenon; contemporary scenarios, in which exchange rate policies are criticized for their potentially protectionist impact, tend to be much more sophisticated. The exchange rate policy followed by China is certainly the outstanding, yet not exclusive, example. In recent years policymakers worldwide have criticized China for maintaining an undervalued real exchange rate as part of its strategy of export-led growth.

Some Issues of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Russia in 2000-2006 and in the Short-term Outlook

2007 ◽  
pp. 26-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Drobyshevsky ◽  
P. Kadochnikov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Budgetary Policy ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper analyzes the problems of macroeconomic policy in Russia in 2000-2006. The authors estimate the trends of realization of monetary, credit, currency and budgetary policy under favorable and unfavorable external economic conditions. Different variants of government and central bank reaction to the oil prices conservation or decline are considered. Different scenarios of macroeconomic policy realization in 2007-2011 are modeled. The results of the computation are presented.

scholarly journals OPTIMAL LEVEL OF FOREIGN RESERVES – EXAMPLE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (9) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Tijana Šoja
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Special Review ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Impact

The paper points to the conceptualdefinition of foreign exchange reserves, the role,importance and objectives for holding foreignexchange reserves as well as evaluating the requiredamount of foreign exchange reserves, or adequacy offoreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchangereserves are important assets in each country andthey are significantly affected by monetary policy,exchange rate policy or regulation and externalinstability and the impact of the crisis that may comefrom the environment. This paper presents a simpleway of estimates of adequacy and optimality offoreign exchange reserves, which are basis for theanalysis of foreign exchange reserves, as well as inthe construction of statistical and mathematicalmodels that detail the optimal level of internationalreserves. Special review was paid to the assessmentof the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves ofBosnia and Herzegovina, and the Central Bank ofBosnia and Herzegovina.

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