Some Issues of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Russia in 2000-2006 and in the Short-term Outlook

2007 ◽  
pp. 26-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Drobyshevsky ◽  
P. Kadochnikov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Budgetary Policy ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper analyzes the problems of macroeconomic policy in Russia in 2000-2006. The authors estimate the trends of realization of monetary, credit, currency and budgetary policy under favorable and unfavorable external economic conditions. Different variants of government and central bank reaction to the oil prices conservation or decline are considered. Different scenarios of macroeconomic policy realization in 2007-2011 are modeled. The results of the computation are presented.

The real equilibrium exchange rate in a commodity­exporting economy: the experience of Azerbaijan

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Vusal Gasimli ◽  
Vusala Jafarova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Relative Productivity

The case of Azerbaijan serves to study the adequacy of exchange-rate policy in a resource-rich economy. This paper analyses the behavior of Azerbaijan’s external accounts over the past twenty years. Declining oil prices made an existing exchange-rate peg unsustainable and led to a large devaluation in 2015. Since then, the current account balance has improved, but by less than expected. We use the EBA-Lite method to derive regression-based estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate, and relate misalignments to measures of “policy gaps”. Our findings suggest that only a few years after the devaluation, Azerbaijan’s currency has once more become overvalued. Moreover, the equilibrium real exchange rate is volatile and hardly compatible with a long-run exchange rate peg. Exchange rate policy should try to accommodate shifts in the fundamental determinants such as relative productivity and real oil prices.

scholarly journals Central Bank Exchange Rate Policy

1987 ◽  
pp. 136-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald R. Hodgman ◽  
Robert W. Resek
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy

A FORECASTING APPROACH TO REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE-OIL PRICE NEXUS IN CHINA

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
HAMID BAGHESTANI ◽  
SEHAR FATIMA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Motivated by the theoretical link between real exchange rates and oil prices, we utilize a univariate moving average (MA) and an augmented MA (A-MA) model to generate multi-period forecasts of China’s real effective exchange rate for 2008–2018. The MA model utilizes past information in real exchange rates, and the A-MA model utilizes past information in both real exchange rates and oil prices. We show that the A-MA forecasts are unbiased and embody useful predictive information beyond that contained in the MA forecasts. In addition, the A-MA forecasts are directionally accurate under asymmetric loss. Such accurate forecasts are useful as inputs for policymakers to design an optimal real exchange rate policy to promote trade and attract foreign investment, and for foreign entities that regard China as an attractive environment for investing in various sectors.

Floating exchange rate of the russian ruble: myth or reality?

2014 ◽  
pp. 50-67
Author(s):  
A. Kiyutsevskaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Major Transformation

Active globalization of the Russian economy has required more flexible exchange rate policy. By 2015, the Bank of Russia plans to finish transition to the floating exchange rate. Though the regulator has been aspiring to achieve this goal since 2007, the exchange rate policy’s mechanism has been changed only after sharp deterioration of external economic conditions in 2008—2009. Expanding bounds of a currency corridor and reducing volumes of carried out interventions, the Bank of Russia continues to weaken the influence on internal currency market, limited to leveling the speculative expectations of economic agents. Stages and reached results of this major transformation of exchange rate policy are investigated in the article.

scholarly journals Macro-economic Policies and Energy Security—Implications for a Chronic Energy Deficit Country

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-273
Author(s):  
Inayat U. Mangla ◽  
Jamshed Y. Uppal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Volatile Oil ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Energy Deficit ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper assesses the energy sector’s foreign exchange requirements for meeting energy consumption and for capital expenditures, and identifies its implications for the country’s macroeconomic policy and management. We develop a conceptual model for projecting the energy sector’s long-term requirements for foreign exchange. The model indicates that the country’s chronic dependence on oil imports is likely to expose the economy to high and volatile oil prices. A fundamental issue for Pakistan is how the energy projects requiring large inflows of foreign capital and technology will be financed. The main implication of our analysis is that there will be continuing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources. The demand for foreign exchange by the year 2024-25 is projected to be US$ 20-21 billion without the FDI in new power generation. However, when we include the requirements of foreign exchange for capital expenditure, the total FX requirements are in the range of US$ 23- 24 billion. An implication of the country’s chronic energy deficiency is that the macroeconomic policies, particularly the foreign exchange rate policy, need to be redefined to reflect the projected demands on hard currencies and their expected scarcity value. It is likely that Pakistan will remain dependent on foreign imports to meet its energy requirements for a long time and will need to generate commensurate foreign exchange resources to ensure longterm energy security. JEL classification: E66, F37, Q43 Keywords: Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Energy Security

scholarly journals THE SCOPE FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET INTERVENTIONS

2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1250018
Author(s):  
PETER BOFINGER
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
European Monetary System ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
Carry Trade ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Rate Policy

The discussion on exchange rate policy is dominated by the so-called "impossible trinity". In this paper, a strategy of managed floating is developed that allows one to transform the "impossible trinity" into a "possible trinity". If a central bank targets an exchange rate path which is determined by uncovered interest parity (UIP), it can at the same time set its policy rate autonomously. As a UIP path removes the incentives for carry-trade, it is also compatible with capital mobility. The approach can be used unilaterally to prevent carry trade as a central bank can always prevent an appreciation of its currency. But it can also be applied bilaterally or multilaterally. Successful examples are the European Monetary System and the exchange rate policy of Slovenia before its EMU membership.

The Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Policy Up Until 1986

2020 ◽  
pp. 209-229
Author(s):  
Einar Lie
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
International Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Government

This chapter studies how Norges Bank came to play a central, technical role in maintaining and defending a stable krone exchange rate during the years 1946–86. This role was reflected in how the bank advised on the basis of a loyal position to the fixed krone exchange rate regime and to binding international exchange rate cooperation. In 1978, Norway backed out of the European fixed exchange rate cooperation, and during 1976–86, the krone was devalued ten times. Even though Norges Bank officially came to contribute to both recommending and carrying out this policy, the policy defied the strong ideals and viewpoints of the organization. The exchange rate policy, and the problems it led to in relation to the central bank, caused the government, in the first half of the 1980s, to push Norges Bank completely aside when it came to the shaping of Norwegian exchange rate policy. Nevertheless, much of the policy was still shaped inside the walls of the institution.

scholarly journals Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurice Obstfeld ◽  
Jay C Shambaugh ◽  
Alan M Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Stability Model ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Modern Era

The rapid growth of international reserves, a development concentrated in the emerging markets, remains a puzzle. In this paper, we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange rate policy are all significant predictors of reserve stocks. Our empirical financial-stability model seems to outperform both traditional models and recent explanations based on external short-term debt. (JEL E23, E43, E44, F31, F32, F34)

scholarly journals Exit Strategies From the Crisis on the Example of the Baltic States

Equilibrium ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Michał Moszyński
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Core Element ◽  
General Direction ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Baltic

The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic policy of the Baltic states in response to the financial crisis of the years 2007-2010. The considerations are based on the thesis that the general direction of the macroeconomic policy chosen by the analyzed countries is correct. The consistent maintaining of a fixed exchange rate during the crisis aroused much controversy and was criticized in the literature. In the study, particular attention was paid to the issues of exchange rate, which has constituted the key element of the policy, both in the initial period of transformation, as well as in the times of recession. The first part of the study concentrates on the specificities of small open economies of the Baltic countries and on the determinants of their monetary and exchange rate policy. Subsequently, the economic situation of the Baltic republics in the face of the crisis was characterized, indicating the main factors increasing their vulnerability to economic shocks. The next subject of the analysis was the macroeconomic policies in response to the deep recession. The considerations were intended to assess the validity of maintaining a fixed exchange rate policy as a core element of an anti-crisis strategy. The methods used in solving the scientific problem were the critical literature studies and the analysis of macroeconomic indicators.

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