Forest Fire Risk Assessment using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Forest fires in the mid hills of Himachal Pradesh are mostly related to human activities. More than 90% of fires are originated from either deliberate or involuntary causes. The purpose of study is linked to identification of forest fire risk factors in 19 villages under Nauni and Oachhghat Panchayats. The methodology paradigm applied here is based on knowledge and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) techniques. Knowledge-based criteria involve socio-economic and biophysical themes for risk assessment. The risk factors are identified according to past occurrence of fire. Fuel type scores highest weight (0.3109) followed by aspect (0.2487), agricultural workers (0.1865), nutritional density (0.1244), population density (0.0622), elevation (0.0311), literacy rate (0.0207) and distance from road (0.0155) in descending order. In the study area applying FAHP, 24.96% of total area was classified under high-risk prone area, 21.69% area classified under high-risk, 34.63% area under moderate risk, while 18.61% area under low risk. The results were in accordance with actual fire occurrences in the past years.