scholarly journals Þekkingarmiðað lýðræði – þegar þekking lýðsins ræður

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Jón Ólafsson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Common Core ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Public Consultation ◽  
Epistemic Democracy ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008

During the democratic awakening in Iceland during and after the financial crisis of 2008 it was evident that different groups based their demands for more or deeper democracy on different conceptions of democracy. Yet their demands had a common core: more democracy meant greater public influence on policy- and decision-making. Thus public discussion insisted on a conception of democracy according to which public consultation is a necessary part of democratic governance. This paper discusses different kinds of consultation depending on the particular demands in each case with particular emphasis on epistemic democracy. I argue that even though it can hardly be said that epistemic democracy is based on much empirical evidence yet, its approach is the most promising way to think about future democratic.

Seeing Like the Fed: Culture, Cognition, and Framing in the Failure to Anticipate the Financial Crisis of 2008

2017 ◽  
Vol 82 (5) ◽  
pp. 879-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Fligstein ◽  
Jonah Stuart Brundage ◽  
Michael Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Recent Work ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
Making Sense ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
Positive Light

One of the puzzles about the financial crisis of 2008 is why regulators, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), were so slow to recognize the impending collapse of the financial system and its broader consequences for the economy. We use theory from the literature on culture, cognition, and framing to explain this puzzle. Consistent with recent work on “positive asymmetry,” we show how the FOMC generally interpreted discomforting facts in a positive light, marginalizing and normalizing anomalous information. We argue that all frames limit what can be understood, but the content of frames matters for how facts are identified and explained. We provide evidence that the Federal Reserve’s primary frame for making sense of the economy was macroeconomic theory. The content of macroeconomics made it difficult for the FOMC to connect events into a narrative reflecting the links between foreclosures in the housing market, the financial instruments used to package the mortgages into securities, and the threats to the larger economy. We conclude with implications for the sociological literatures on framing and cognition and for decision-making in future crises.

Empirical evidence on the profitability of momentum trading strategies using ETFs

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1321-1341
Author(s):  
Susana Yu ◽  
Gwendolyn Webb
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
High Price ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Relative Ease ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
Momentum Trading

PurposeWe extend empirical evidence on the profitability of momentum trading to the realm of plain-equity ETFs.Design/methodology/approachWe employ several ranking measures used in prior research, and for each we apply a traditional ranking based on total return, and a variation based only on the capital gain/loss portion of return.FindingsWhile we find that past momentum is not a strong predictor of future performance in our overall sample period, 2007 to June 2018, we find that the percent off 52-week high price results in positive performance in the recovery years following the financial crisis of 2008–2009.Research limitations/implicationsOur study is limited by the availability of ETF experience and data, and our test period covers just 2007 through June 2018. This period includes the financial crisis of 2008–2009, which previous research finding is associated with the momentum strategy's loss of profitability. When we exclude that period, we find evidence of a profitable momentum strategy based on the measure of percent off 52-week high price, enabling us to reject the null hypothesis that the momentum trading strategy is no longer profitable.Practical implicationsIt is profitable based on both return measures used in the rankings. Our finding of a profitable momentum trading strategy suggests that the null hypothesis that the momentum strategy is no longer profitable can be rejected.Originality/valueWhile perhaps not so strong as to reject the efficient markets hypothesis fully, our empirical findings are more consistent with a behavioral explanation and a market inefficiency. In view of the relative ease and low transactional costs of trading in ETFs, the markets have yet another opportunity to recognize an apparent mispricing and employ arbitrage based on it. To the extent that the relative ease of trading in ETFs makes momentum strategies easier to employ, the momentum anomaly might still be expected to disappear in an efficient market.

Minimizing Missed Opportunities: Modeling Relationships between the State and Business in Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 42-61
Author(s):  
A. Oleynik
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Common Good ◽  
The State ◽  
Power Relationships ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Power Domination ◽  
Individual Decision Making ◽  
Optimal Outcomes

Power involves a number of models of choice: maximizing, satisficing, coercion, and minimizing missed opportunities. The latter is explored in detail and linked to a particular type of power, domination by virtue of a constellation of interests. It is shown that domination by virtue of a constellation of interests calls for justification through references to a common good, i.e. a rent to be shared between Principal and Agent. Two sources of sub-optimal outcomes are compared: individual decision-making and interactions. Interactions organized in the form of power relationships lead to sub-optimal outcomes for at least one side, Agent. Some empirical evidence from Russia is provided for illustrative purposes.

Is the Deductive Falsification Approach a Better Basis for Clinical Trial Appraisal?

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 224-228
Author(s):  
Steffen Mickenautsch
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Inductive Reasoning ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Future Trial ◽  
Grading Systems ◽  
Component Scores ◽  
Current Clinical Trial

Background: Inductive reasoning relies on an infinite regress without sufficient factual basis and verification is at any time vulnerable to single contrary observation. Thus, appraisal based on inductive verification, as applied in current clinical trial appraisal scales, checklists or grading systems, cannot prove or justify trial validity. Discussion: Trial appraisal based on deductive falsification can identify invalid trials and give evidence for the recommendation to exclude these from clinical decision-making. Such appraisal remains agnostic towards corroborated trials that pass all appraisal criteria. The results of corroborated trials cannot be considered more robust than falsified trials since nothing within a particular set of complied trial criteria can give certainty for trial compliance with any other appraisal criterion in future. A corroborated trial may or may not reflect therapeutic truth and may thus be the basis for clinical guidance, pending results of any future trial re-appraisal. Conclusion: Trial grading following appraisal based on deductive falsification should be binary (0 = Invalid or 1 = Unclear) and single component scores should be multiplied. Appraisal criteria for the judgment of trial characteristics require a clear rationale, quantification of such rationale and empirical evidence concerning the effect of trial characteristics on trial results.

A Comparative Analysis of Investor and Auditor Materiality Judgments

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 149-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Todd DeZoort ◽  
Travis P. Holt ◽  
Jonathan D. Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Professional Standards ◽  
Policy Capturing ◽  
Cue Utilization ◽  
Critical Domain ◽  
Extant Literature

SUMMARY Materiality remains a challenging concept for auditors to implement in practice. The challenges underlying auditor materiality assessments are compounded by the fact that courts, regulation, and professional standards emphasize that materiality should be based on a “reasonable investor” perspective. Despite the investor orientation and ambiguous nature of the “reasonable investor” criterion, the extant literature lacks empirical evidence about investor materiality judgments and decision-making. To address this problem, we model sophisticated and unsophisticated investors' materiality judgments in a policy-capturing study and compare them to experienced auditors charged with assessing materiality from an investor perspective. The results indicate significant differences in materiality judgments, judgment consensus, and cue utilization among the three participant groups. We conclude the paper with discussion of the study's implications, highlighting that the overall results suggest the need for further consideration of ways to help auditors meet standards and expectations in this critical domain.

scholarly journals Skill and strategic control

Synthese ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Fridland
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Mental Imagery ◽  
Sports Psychology ◽  
Mental Practice ◽  
Strategic Control ◽  
Cognitive Representations ◽  
Personal Level ◽  
The Right ◽  
Better Than

AbstractThis paper provides an account of the strategic control involved in skilled action. When I discuss strategic control, I have in mind the practical goals, plans, and strategies that skilled agents use in order to specify, structure, and organize their skilled actions, which they have learned through practice. The idea is that skilled agents are better than novices not only at implementing the intentions that they have but also at forming the right intentions. More specifically, skilled agents are able formulate and modify, adjust and adapt their practical intentions in ways that are appropriate, effective, and flexible given their overall goals. Further, to specify the kind of action plans that are involved in strategic control, I’ll rely on empirical evidence concerning mental practice and mental imagery from sports psychology as well as evidence highlighting the systematic differences in the cognitive representations of skills between experts and non-experts. I’ll claim that, together, this evidence suggests that the intentions that structure skilled actions are practical and not theoretical, that is, that they are perceptual and motor and not abstract, amodal, or linguistic. Importantly, despite their grounded nature, these plans are still personal-level, deliberate, rational states. That is, the practical intentions used to specify and structure skilled actions are best conceived of as higher-order, motor-modal structures, which can be manipulated and used by the agent for the purpose of reasoning, deliberation, decision-making and, of course, the actual online structuring and organizing of action.

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