Does Real Exchange Rate Respond Asymmetrically to Changes in Real Oil Price?

2022 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-106
Author(s):  
Abubakar Lawan Ngoma
2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 579-606
Author(s):  
Nicola Rubino

Past research has shown how real Exchange rates follow a univariate nonlinear process that approximates their behavior in terms of transaction costs. However, little or nothing has been said about alternative sources of nonlinearity in commodity exporting countries. Our paper investigates the missing link between the Real Exchange Rate Commodity Prices equilibrium by employing an oil price volatility measure as an external source of short-term fluctuations. Our estimates show that the Real Exchange Rate Commodity price relationship appears to be nonlinear with respect to oil price variation, and that the goodness of fit of the nonlinear specifications appears to outperform that of the equivalent linear models. The equilibrium speed of adjustment appears to be different in the two branches of the relationship: in the majority of the threshold models, the negative volatility regime presents a faster speed of adjustment and in some cases a most significant one.


Author(s):  
Mohammad Hassan Kheiravar ◽  
Davood Danesh Jafari ◽  
Hamid Nazeman ◽  
Javid Bahrami

In most of oil exporting countries, oil revenue is considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. These revenues, as the important source of currency, at least, enables the country import various capital goods, intermediaries and consumables and usually covers part of the government's current and development expenditures. However, oil revenues are volatile and uncertain due to the changing nature of the global oil price. This indicate that a significant part of the economy in these countries is exposed to potential instability which is supposed as an anti-growth factor. The present study seeks to examine the effect of oil revenues on inflation and real exchange rate as dominant proxies of macroeconomic stability along with economic growth in oil exporting countries using the GMM method during the 1980 to 2015 period. The results show that oil revenues have different effects on these indicators in selected countries.


2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-64
Author(s):  
Kornelia Gierczyńska

In general thinking, countries possessing rich natural resource deposits are blessed, as resource abundance has seemingly positive correlation with the wealth and economic development of a nation. However, experience shows that countries endowed with extreme amounts of natural resources have found themselves in a serious misuse and on a damaging growth path. Extraordinary resource possession is rather an opportunity than a guarantee for better economic performance. The term “Dutch disease” refers to a situation in which new discoveries of natural resources or sharp rises in commodity prices lead to an increase in the equilibrium real exchange rate, thus undermining the competitiveness of the other tradable sectors in the economy. As suggested in the academic literature the Dutch disease is associated ith four main symptoms: a slowdown in manufacturing output, a booming non-tradable sector, an increase in real wages and real exchange rate appreciation. Russia’s oil price dependence and the risk of the Dutch disease are often considered as the main long-term challenges to sustainable growth in the country. In this regard, it is worth studying the available economic data for evidence of these phenomena. Russia’s oil price dependence and the risk of the Dutch disease are often considered as the main long-term challenges to sustainable growth in the country. In this regard, it is worth studying the available economic data for evidence of these phenomena. The main section examines whether in Russia: exports have become more biased towards oil and gas, GDP growth has become more sensitive to oil price fluctuations, the economy is showing symptoms of the Dutch disease.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidi Mohammed Chekouri ◽  
Abdelkader Sahed

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate and oil prices in Algeria over the period 2004Q1–2019Q4. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method is used to capture the potential asymmetric relationship among oil prices and the exchange rate. Frequency domain spectral Granger causality test is also applied to investigate the causal linkage between the two variables. The wavelet coherence is applied to analyze the evolution of this relationship both in time and frequency domains. Findings The empirical results reveal evidence of long-run asymmetric effects of oil price on Algeria’s real effective exchange rate (REER), implying that an increase in oil price causes a real exchange rate to appreciate, while a decrease in oil price leads to a real exchange rate to depreciate. More specifically, it is found that the impact of negative oil price shocks is higher than the one associated with positive shocks. The spectral Granger causality results further indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from oil price to REER in both medium and long run. The wavelet coherence findings provide evidence of some co-movement between the REER and oil price and point out that the oil price is leading real exchange rate in the medium and long terms. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by investigating the asymmetric impact and the time domain causal linkage between oil price fluctuations and real exchange rate in Algeria.


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