Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape shapes variation in mosquito population dynamics and the potential of Aedes albopictus to transmit arboviral disease

AbstractMosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R2 value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.

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Fine-scale estimation of key life-history parameters of malaria vectors: implications for next-generation vector control technologies

Parasites & Vectors ◽

10.1186/s13071-021-04789-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Aaron L. Morris ◽

Azra Ghani ◽

Neil Ferguson

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Population Dynamics ◽

Vector Control ◽

Public Health Policy ◽

Egg Laying ◽

Mosquito Population ◽

Parameter Estimates ◽

Fine Scale ◽

Gene Drive ◽

Mosquito Population Dynamics

Abstract Background Mosquito control has the potential to significantly reduce malaria burden on a region, but to influence public health policy must also show cost-effectiveness. Gaps in our knowledge of mosquito population dynamics mean that mathematical modelling of vector control interventions have typically made simplifying assumptions about key aspects of mosquito ecology. Often, these assumptions can distort the predicted efficacy of vector control, particularly next-generation tools such as gene drive, which are highly sensitive to local mosquito dynamics. Methods We developed a discrete-time stochastic mathematical model of mosquito population dynamics to explore the fine-scale behaviour of egg-laying and larval density dependence on parameter estimation. The model was fitted to longitudinal mosquito population count data using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Results By modelling fine-scale behaviour of egg-laying under varying density dependence scenarios we refine our life history parameter estimates, and in particular we see how model assumptions affect population growth rate (Rm), a crucial determinate of vector control efficacy. Conclusions Subsequent application of these new parameter estimates to gene drive models show how the understanding and implementation of fine-scale processes, when deriving parameter estimates, may have a profound influence on successful vector control. The consequences of this may be of crucial interest when devising future public health policy. Graphic abstract

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Parasitism of Aedes Albopictus by Ascogregarina Taiwanensis Lowers Its Competitive Ability Against Aedes Triseriatus.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-51719/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Emma Stump ◽

Lauren M Childs ◽

Melody Walker

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Competitive Advantage ◽

Aedes Albopictus ◽

Mosquito Species ◽

Mosquito Population ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Aedes Triseriatus ◽

Mosquito Population Dynamics ◽

The Impact ◽

Ascogregarina Taiwanensis

Abstract Background: Mosquitoes are carriers for many diseases that significantly impact the human population such as dengue, malaria and La Crosse virus. When multiple mosquito species are present, the competition between species may alter disease spread. Two mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Aedes triseriatus, both inhabit areas where La Crosse Encephalitis Virus is found. Infection of Aedes albopictus by the parasite Ascogregarina taiwanensis can decrease the mosquito’s fitness and impact its initial competitive advantage over Aedes triseriatus. The decrease in fitness occurs through the impact of Ascogregarina taiwanensis on female fecundity, larval development rate, and larval mortality. Methods: In this paper, we examine the effects of parasitism of Ascogregarina taiwanensis on Aedes albopictus and Aedes triseriatus population dynamics and competition. We build a compartmental model using parameters based on published literature, simulate the dynamics of the system, and analyze the effect of parasitism on competition between the mosquito species. Results: We show that increased levels of parasitism in Aedes albopictus will decrease the initial competitive advantage of the species over Aedes triseriatus and increase the survivorship of Aedes triseriatus. An understanding of how population dynamics are affected by this parasite can inform future mosquito control and mosquito-borne disease mitigation efforts. Conclusions: Mosquito population dynamics are affected by many factors, including abiotic factors (e.g. temperature and humidity) and competition between mosquito species. This is especially true when multiple mosquito species are vying to live in the same area. An understanding of mosquito population dynamics is vital to preventing spread of these diseases.

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