Abstract. Biogenic very short-lived bromine (VSLBr) represents, nowadays, ~ 25 % of the total stratospheric bromine loading. Owing to their much shorter lifetime compared to anthropogenic long-lived bromine (LLBr, e.g., halons) and chlorine (LLCl, e.g., chlorofluorocarbons) substances, the impact of VSLBr on ozone peaks at the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, a key climatic and radiative atmospheric region. Here we present a modelling study of the evolution of stratospheric ozone and its chemical losses in extra-polar regions during the 21st century, under two different scenarios: considering and neglecting the additional stratospheric injection of 5 ppt biogenic VSLBr naturally released from the ocean. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of VSLBr result in a realistic stratospheric bromine loading and improves the quantitative 1980–2015 model-satellite agreement of total ozone column (TOC) in the mid-latitudes. We show that the overall ozone response to VSLBr within the mid-latitudes follows the stratospheric abundances evolution of long-lived inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the 21st century. Additional ozone losses due to VSLBr are maximised during the present-day period (1990–2010), with TOC differences of −8 DU (−3 %) and −5.5 DU (−2 %) for the southern (SH-ML) and northern (NH-ML) mid-latitudes, respectively. Moreover, the projected TOC differences at the end of the 21st century are at least half of the values found for the present-day period. In the tropics, a small (
Predicting the impact of household contact and mass chemoprophylaxis on future new leprosy cases in South Tarawa, Kiribati: A modelling study
