scholarly journals Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. e0009745
Author(s):  
Wei Wu ◽  
Hongyan Ren ◽  
Liang Lu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Pearl River

Background In recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood. Methodology and principal findings In this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070. Conclusions The increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.

scholarly journals Spatial Distribution of Soil Nutrients in Farmland in a Hilly Region of the Pearl River Delta in China Based on Geostatistics and the Inverse Distance Weighting Method

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Rumi Wang ◽  
Runyan Zou ◽  
Jianmei Liu ◽  
Luo Liu ◽  
Yueming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Farmland Protection ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
Hilly Region ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
The Pearl River ◽  
Inverse Distance

Soil nutrients are essential factors that reflect farmland quality. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium are essential elements for plants, while silicon is considered a “quasi-essential” element. This study investigated the spatial distribution of plant nutrients in soil in a hilly region of the Pearl River Delta in China. A total of 201 soil samples were collected from farmland topsoil (0–20 cm) for the analysis of total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (AP), available potassium (AK), and available silicon (ASi). The coefficients of variation ranged from 47.88% to 76.91%. The NSRs of TN, AP, AK, and ASi were 0.15, 0. 07, 0.12, and 0.13, respectively. The NSRs varied from 0.02 to 0.20. All variables exhibited weak spatial dependence (R2 < 0.5), except for TN (R2 = 0.701). After comparing the prediction accuracy of the different methods, we used the inverse distance weighting method to analyze the spatial distribution of plant nutrients in soil. The uniform spatial distribution of AK, TN overall showed a trend of increasing from northeast to southwest, and the overall spatial distribution of AP and ASi showed that the northeast was higher than the southwest. This study provides support for the delimitation of basic farmland protection areas, the formulation of land use spatial planning, and the formulation of accurate farmland protection policies.

scholarly journals Investigating Future Urbanization’s Impact on Local Climate under Different Climate Change Scenarios in MEGA-urban Regions: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 771
Author(s):  
Pak Shing Yeung ◽  
Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung ◽  
Chao Ren ◽  
Yong Xu ◽  
Kangning Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Pearl River

Urbanization is one of the most significant contributing factors to anthropogenic climate change. However, a lack of projected city land use data has posed significant challenges to factoring urbanization into climate change modeling. Thus, the results from current models may contain considerable errors in estimating future climate scenarios. The Pearl River Delta region was selected as a case study to provide insight into how large-scale urbanization and different climate change scenarios impact the local climate. This study adopts projected land use data from freely available satellite imagery and applies dynamic simulation land use results to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulation periods cover the summer periods in 2010 and 2029–2031, the latter of which is averaged to represent the year 2030. The WRF simulation used the observed local climate conditions in 2010 to represent the current scenario and the projected local climate changes for 2030 as the future scenario. Under all three future climate change scenarios, the warming trend is prominent (around 1–2 °C increase), with a widespread reduction in wind speed in inland areas (1–2 ms−1). The vulnerability of human health to thermal stress was evaluated by adopting the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The results from the future scenarios suggest a high public health risk due to rising temperatures in the future. This study provides a methodology for a more comprehensive understanding of future urbanization and its impact on regional climate by using freely available satellite images and WRF simulation tools. The simulated temperature and WBGT results can serve local governments and stakeholders in city planning and the creation of action plans that will reduce the potential vulnerability of human health to excessive heat.

scholarly journals The importance of future urban development in hourly extreme rainfall projections- comparing global warming and urbanization forcing over the Pearl River Delta region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenxi Hu ◽  
Chi-Yung Tam ◽  
Xinwei Li ◽  
Kangning Huang ◽  
Chao Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Pearl River ◽  
Near Future

Abstract The impacts of future urban development and global warming forcing on hourly extreme rainfall over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) area have been investigated, by dynamically downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolution, coupled with an Urban Canopy Model (UCM). Three downscaling experiments corresponding to different urban land cover (1999 and projected 2030) and climate (1951-to-2000 and 2001-to-2050 GCM simulations) were designed. Near-future climate change (up to 2050) and 1999-to-2030 urban development effects on PRD extreme precipitation were then examined. Results show that climate change and rapid urban development forcing have comparable positive effects on the intensity as well as heavy hourly rainfall probability over the PRD megacity. Global warming tends to increase heavy rainfall probability (from 40 to 60mm/hr) by about 1.3 to 1.8 times, but suppresses the frequency of light rainfall. Urban development increases urban rainfall probability within the whole range of intensity, with frequency for very heavy rainfall (> 90mm/hr) almost doubled. Overall, forcing due to rapid urban development plays an important role for projecting rainfall characteristic over the highly urbanized coastal PRD megacity, with impacts that can be comparable to global warming in the near future.

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