scholarly journals Climate Variability, Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. e83484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aparna Lal ◽  
Takayoshi Ikeda ◽  
Nigel French ◽  
Michael G. Baker ◽  
Simon Hales
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Enteric Disease ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals Climate variability and salmonellosis in Singapore – A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 639 ◽  
pp. 1261-1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Aik ◽  
Anita E. Heywood ◽  
Anthony T. Newall ◽  
Lee-Ching Ng ◽  
Martyn D. Kirk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series analysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (9) ◽  
pp. 1281-1289 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. HASHIZUME ◽  
B. ARMSTRONG ◽  
Y. WAGATSUMA ◽  
A. S. G. FARUQUE ◽  
T. HAYASHI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
River Level ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Level Increase ◽  
Seasonal Factors ◽  
Low Humidity ◽  
Hospital Visits ◽  
Rotavirus Infections

SUMMARYAttempts to explain the clear seasonality of rotavirus infections have been made by relating disease incidence to climate factors; however, few studies have disentangled the effects of weather from other factors that might cause seasonality. We investigated the relationships between hospital visits for rotavirus diarrhoea and temperature, humidity and river level, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using time-series analysis adjusting for other confounding seasonal factors. There was strong evidence for an increase in rotavirus diarrhoea at high temperatures, by 40·2% for each 1°C increase above a threshold (29°C). Relative humidity had a linear inverse relationship with the number of cases of rotavirus diarrhoea. River level, above a threshold (4·8 m), was associated with an increase in cases of rotavirus diarrhoea, by 5·5% per 10-cm river-level rise. Our findings provide evidence that factors associated with high temperature, low humidity and high river-level increase the incidence of rotavirus diarrhoea in Dhaka.

The effect of season and the introduction of rams on oestrous activity in Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and New Zealand Romney Marsh ewes in Kenya

1986 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. Carles ◽  
W. A. K. Kipngeno
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Oestrous Cycle ◽  
Significant Source ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Mean

ABSTRACTA study was made of the levels of oestrous activity of two indigenous breeds of sheep (Somali and Nandi) and three exotic breeds of sheep (Merino, Karakul and New Zealand Romney Marsh) over a period of 3 years, in an equatorial environment. Breed was the only significant source of variation for the length of the oestrous cycle (P < 0·01). The mean lengths of the oestrous cycle were 17·2 (s.d. 3·21), 17·5 (s.d. 2·24), 17·9 (s.d. 2·99), 17·5 (s.d. 2·57) and 16·5 (s.d. 3·41) days for the Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and Romney Marsh breeds, respectively.The mean percentage of ewes of the different breeds showing oestrus in 20-day periods were 69·8 (s.d. 22·57), 49·9 (s.d. 18·67), 63·4 (s.d. 25·70), 79·2 (s.d. 20·30) and 33·2 (s.d. 23·50) % for the Somali, Nandi, Merino, Karakul and Romney Marsh breeds, respectively. Time-series analysis did not detect any evidence of seasonal variation in oestrous activity, although there was an indication that the Merino and Romney Marsh breeds showed a marked increase in oestrous activity following, the introduction of rams. It was concluded that the variation in level of oestrous activity was short term and random.

scholarly journals The impact of city-wide deployment of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes on arboviral disease incidence in Medellín and Bello, Colombia: study protocol for an interrupted time-series analysis and a test-negative design study

F1000Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1327
Author(s):  
Ivan D. Velez ◽  
Eduardo Santacruz ◽  
Simon C. Kutcher ◽  
Sandra L. Duque ◽  
Alexander Uribe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Negative Controls ◽  
Arboviral Disease

Background: Dengue, chikungunya and Zika are viral infections transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and present major public health challenges in tropical regions. Traditional vector control methods have been ineffective at halting disease transmission. The World Mosquito Program has developed a novel approach to arbovirus control using Ae. aegypti stably transfected with the Wolbachia bacterium, which have significantly reduced ability to transmit dengue, Zika and chikungunya in laboratory experiments. Field releases in eight countries have demonstrated Wolbachia establishment in local Ae. aegypti populations. Methods: We describe a pragmatic approach to measuring the epidemiological impact of city-wide Wolbachia deployments in Bello and Medellín, Colombia. First, an interrupted time-series analysis will compare the incidence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications before and after Wolbachia releases, across the two municipalities. Second, a prospective case-control study using a test-negative design will be conducted in one quadrant of Medellín. Three of the six contiguous release zones in the case-control area were allocated to receive the first Wolbachia deployments in the city and three to be treated last, approximating a parallel two-arm trial for the >12-month period during which Wolbachia exposure remains discordant. Allocation, although non-random, aimed to maximise balance between arms in historical dengue incidence and demographics. Arboviral disease cases and arbovirus-negative controls will be enrolled concurrently from febrile patients presenting to primary care, with case/control status classified retrospectively following laboratory diagnostic testing. Intervention effect is estimated from an aggregate odds ratio comparing Wolbachia-exposure odds among test-positive cases versus test-negative controls. Discussion: The study findings will add to an accumulating body of evidence from global field sites on the efficacy of the Wolbachia method in reducing arboviral disease incidence, and can inform decisions on wider public health implementation of this intervention in the Americas and beyond. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03631719. Registered on 15 August 2018.

scholarly journals Time series analysis of tuna and swordfish catches and climate variability in the Indian Ocean (1968-2003)

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Corbineau ◽  
Tristan Rouyer ◽  
Bernard Cazelles ◽  
Jean-Marc Fromentin ◽  
Alain Fonteneau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Indian Ocean

scholarly journals Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis

1984 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 587-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. Anderson ◽  
B. T. Grenfell ◽  
R. M. May
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Whooping Cough ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Childhood Diseases ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

SummaryThis paper uses the techniques of time series analysis (autocorrelation and spectral analysis) to examine oscillatory secular trends in the incidence of infectious diseases and the impact of mass vaccination programmes on these well-documented phenomena. We focus on three common childhood diseases: pertussis and mumps (using published disease-incidence data for England and Wales) and measles (using data from England and Wales, Scotland, North America and France). Our analysis indicates highly statistically significant seasonal and longer-term cycles in disease incidence in the prevaccination era. In general, the longer-term fluctuations (a 2-year period for measles, 3-year periods for pertussis and mumps) account for most of the cyclical variability in these data, particularly in the highly regular measles series for England and Wales. After vaccination, the periods of the longer-term oscillations tend to increase, an observation which corroborates theoretical predictions. Mass immunization against measles (which reduces epidemic fluctuations) magnifies the relative importance of the seasonal cycles. By contrast, we show that high levels of vaccination against whooping cough in England and Wales appear to have suppressed the annual cycle.

scholarly journals Climate Variability and the Outbreaks of Cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A Time Series Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 84 (6) ◽  
pp. 862-869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Reyburn ◽  
Mohammad Ali ◽  
Michael Emch ◽  
Deok Ryun Kim ◽  
Ahmed Khatib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals The impact of city-wide deployment of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes on arboviral disease incidence in Medellín and Bello, Colombia: study protocol for an interrupted time-series analysis and a test-negative design study

F1000Research ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1327
Author(s):  
Ivan D. Velez ◽  
Eduardo Santacruz ◽  
Simon C. Kutcher ◽  
Sandra L. Duque ◽  
Alexander Uribe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Negative Controls ◽  
Arboviral Disease

Background: Dengue, chikungunya and Zika are viral infections transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and present major public health challenges in tropical regions. Traditional vector control methods have been ineffective at halting disease transmission. The World Mosquito Program has developed a novel approach to arbovirus control using Ae. aegypti stably transfected with the Wolbachia bacterium, which have significantly reduced ability to transmit dengue, Zika and chikungunya in laboratory experiments. Field releases in eight countries have demonstrated Wolbachia establishment in local Ae. aegypti populations. Methods: We describe a pragmatic approach to measuring the epidemiological impact of city-wide Wolbachia deployments in Bello and Medellín, Colombia. First, an interrupted time-series analysis will compare the incidence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications before and after Wolbachia releases, across the two municipalities. Second, a prospective case-control study using a test-negative design will be conducted in one quadrant of Medellín. Three of the six contiguous release zones in the case-control area were allocated to receive the first Wolbachia deployments in the city and three to be treated last, approximating a parallel two-arm trial for the >12-month period during which Wolbachia exposure remains discordant. Allocation, although non-random, aimed to maximise balance between arms in historical dengue incidence and demographics. Arboviral disease cases and arbovirus-negative controls will be enrolled concurrently from febrile patients presenting to primary care, with case/control status classified retrospectively following laboratory diagnostic testing. Intervention effect is estimated from an aggregate odds ratio comparing Wolbachia-exposure odds among test-positive cases versus test-negative controls. Discussion: The study findings will add to an accumulating body of evidence from global field sites on the efficacy of the Wolbachia method in reducing arboviral disease incidence, and can inform decisions on wider public health implementation of this intervention in the Americas and beyond. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03631719. Registered on 15 August 2018.

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