Forecasting seasonal influenza-like illness in South Korea after 2 and 30 weeks using Google Trends and influenza data from Argentina

Abstract School closures are considered as a potential nonpharmaceutical intervention to mitigate severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. In this study, we assessed the effects of scheduled school closure on influenza transmission using influenza surveillance data before, during, and after spring breaks in South Korea, 2014–2016. During the spring breaks, influenza transmission was reduced by 27%–39%, while the overall reduction in transmissibility was estimated to be 6%–23%, with greater effects observed among school-aged children.

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Cross-sectional telephone surveys as a tool to study epidemiological factors and monitor seasonal influenza activity in Malta

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-11862-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

V. Marmara ◽

D. Marmara ◽

P. McMenemy ◽

A. Kleczkowski

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Medical Information ◽

Healthcare Services ◽

Reporting Rate ◽

Google Trends ◽

Activity Levels ◽

Self Perception ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

The Public

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza has major implications for healthcare services as outbreaks often lead to high activity levels in health systems. Being able to predict when such outbreaks occur is vital. Mathematical models have extensively been used to predict epidemics of infectious diseases such as seasonal influenza and to assess effectiveness of control strategies. Availability of comprehensive and reliable datasets used to parametrize these models is limited. In this paper we combine a unique epidemiological dataset collected in Malta through General Practitioners (GPs) with a novel method using cross-sectional surveys to study seasonal influenza dynamics in Malta in 2014–2016, to include social dynamics and self-perception related to seasonal influenza. Methods Two cross-sectional public surveys (n = 406 per survey) were performed by telephone across the Maltese population in 2014–15 and 2015–16 influenza seasons. Survey results were compared with incidence data (diagnosed seasonal influenza cases) collected by GPs in the same period and with Google Trends data for Malta. Information was collected on whether participants recalled their health status in past months, occurrences of influenza symptoms, hospitalisation rates due to seasonal influenza, seeking GP advice, and other medical information. Results We demonstrate that cross-sectional surveys are a reliable alternative data source to medical records. The two surveys gave comparable results, indicating that the level of recollection among the public is high. Based on two seasons of data, the reporting rate in Malta varies between 14 and 22%. The comparison with Google Trends suggests that the online searches peak at about the same time as the maximum extent of the epidemic, but the public interest declines and returns to background level. We also found that the public intensively searched the Internet for influenza-related terms even when number of cases was low. Conclusions Our research shows that a telephone survey is a viable way to gain deeper insight into a population’s self-perception of influenza and its symptoms and to provide another benchmark for medical statistics provided by GPs and Google Trends. The information collected can be used to improve epidemiological modelling of seasonal influenza and other infectious diseases, thus effectively contributing to public health.

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Fluctuations in influenza-like illness epidemics and suicide mortality: A time-series regression of 13-year mortality data in South Korea

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0244596 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. e0244596

Author(s):

Sun Jae Jung ◽

Sung-Shil Lim ◽

Jin-Ha Yoon

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

South Korea ◽

Influenza A ◽

Suicide Mortality ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Time Series Regression ◽

Influenza Like Illness ◽

Pdm09 Virus ◽

Influenza A H1n1 ◽

Novel Influenza A

Aims We explored the association between influenza epidemic and suicide mortality rates in a large population using a time-series regression of 13-year mortality data in South Korea. Methods Weekly suicide mortalities and influenza-like illness (ILI) were analyzed using time series regression. Regression coefficient for suicide mortality based on percentage change of ILI was calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression. Non-linear distributed lag models with quadratic function up to 24 weeks were constructed. Results The association between ILI and suicide mortality increased significantly up to 8 weeks post-influenza diagnosis. A significant positive association between ILI and suicide mortality was observed from 2009, when a novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic. No meaningful association between these factors was observed before 2009. Conclusion There was a significant positive relationship between ILI and suicide mortality after 2009, when a novel influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus provoked a worldwide pandemic.

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Influenza-like Illness Definition Pertaining to Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Diagnosis, Treatment, Chemoprophylaxis, and Institutional Outbreak Management of Seasonal Influenza

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciz766 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 70 (12) ◽

pp. 2749-2749 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Senu Apewokin ◽

Ngozi Onyishi

Keyword(s):

Clinical Practice ◽

Clinical Practice Guidelines ◽

Practice Guidelines ◽

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Outbreak Management ◽

Influenza Like Illness

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The second worldwide wave of interest in coronavirus since the COVID-19 outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran: A Google Trends study

Brain Behavior and Immunity ◽

10.1016/j.bbi.2020.04.042 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 88 ◽

pp. 950-951 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Artur Strzelecki

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

Google Trends

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Healthcare personnel absenteeism, presenteeism, and staffing challenges during epidemics

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology ◽

10.1017/ice.2020.453 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-4

Author(s):

Douglas W. Challener ◽

Laura E. Breeher ◽

JoEllen Frain ◽

Melanie D. Swift ◽

Pritish K. Tosh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seasonal Influenza ◽

Medical Center ◽

Academic Medical Center ◽

The United States ◽

Healthcare Personnel ◽

Linear Regression Models ◽

Influenza Like Illness ◽

Healthcare Workforce ◽

Academic Medical ◽

Hourly Employees

Abstract: Objective: Presenteeism is an expensive and challenging problem in the healthcare industry. In anticipation of the staffing challenges expected with the COVID-19 pandemic, we examined a decade of payroll data for a healthcare workforce. We aimed to determine the effect of seasonal influenza-like illness (ILI) on absences to support COVID-19 staffing plans. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Large academic medical center in the United States. Participants: Employees of the academic medical center who were on payroll between the years of 2009 and 2019. Methods: Biweekly institutional payroll data was evaluated for unscheduled absences as a marker for acute illness-related work absences. Linear regression models, stratified by payroll status (salaried vs hourly employees) were developed for unscheduled absences as a function of local ILI. Results: Both hours worked and unscheduled absences were significantly related to the community prevalence of influenza-like illness in our cohort. These effects were stronger in hourly employees. Conclusions: Organizations should target their messaging at encouraging salaried staff to stay home when ill.

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