scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0245417
Author(s):  
Nessma Adil Mahmoud Yousif ◽  
Henri Christian Junior Tsoungui Obama ◽  
Yvan Jordan Ngucho Mbeutchou ◽  
Sandy Frank Kwamou Ngaha ◽  
Loyce Kayanula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Antibody Dependent Enhancement ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Background COVID-19 vaccines are approved, vaccination campaigns are launched, and worldwide return to normality seems within close reach. Nevertheless, concerns about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines arose, due to their fast emergency approval. In fact, the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement was raised in the context of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods and findings We introduce a complex extension of the model underlying the pandemic preparedness tool CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to optimize vaccination strategies with regard to the onset of campaigns, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedules, vaccination rates, and efficiency of vaccines. Vaccines are not assumed to immunize perfectly. Some individuals fail to immunize, some reach only partial immunity, and—importantly—some develop antibody-dependent enhancement, which increases the likelihood of developing symptomatic and severe episodes (associated with higher case fatality) upon infection. Only a fraction of the population will be vaccinated, reflecting vaccination hesitancy or contraindications. The model is intended to facilitate decision making by exploring ranges of parameters rather than to be fitted by empirical data. We parameterized the model to reflect the situation in Germany and predict increasing incidence (and prevalence) in early 2021 followed by a decline by summer. Assuming contact reductions (curfews, social distancing, etc.) to be lifted in summer, disease incidence will peak again. Fast vaccine deployment contributes to reduce disease incidence in the first quarter of 2021, and delay the epidemic outbreak after the summer season. Higher vaccination coverage results in a delayed and reduced epidemic peak. A coverage of 75%–80% is necessary to prevent an epidemic peak without further drastic contact reductions. Conclusions With the vaccine becoming available, compliance with contact reductions is likely to fade. To prevent further economic damage from COVID-19, high levels of immunization need to be reached before next year’s flu season, and vaccination strategies and disease management need to be flexibly adjusted. The predictive model can serve as a refined decision support tool for COVID-19 management.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accounting for antibody-dependent enhancement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nessma Adil M. Y. ◽  
Henri Christian Junior Tsoungui Obama ◽  
Jordan Ngucho Yvan Mbeutchou ◽  
Sandy Frank Kwamou Ngaha ◽  
Loyce Kayanula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Antibody Dependent Enhancement ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Background: COVID-19 vaccines are approved, vaccination campaigns are launched, and worldwide return to normality seems within close reach. Nevertheless, concerns about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines arose, due to their fast emergency approval. In fact, the problem of antibody-dependent enhancement was raised in the context of COVID-19 vaccines. Methods and findings: We introduce a complex extension of the model underlying the pandemic preparedness tool CovidSim 1.1 (http://covidsim.eu/) to optimize vaccination strategies with regard to the onset of campaigns, vaccination coverage, vaccination schedules, vaccination rates, and efficiency of vaccines. Vaccines are not assumed to immunize perfectly. Some individuals fail to immunize, some reach only partial immunity, and -- importantly -- some develop antibody-dependent enhancement, which increases the likelihood of developing symptomatic and severe episodes (associated with higher case fatality) upon infection. Only a fraction of the population will be vaccinated, reflecting vaccination hesitancy or contraindications. We parameterized the model to reflect the situation in Germany and predict increasing incidence (and prevalence) in early 2021 followed by a decline by summer. Assuming contact reductions (curfews, social distancing, etc.) to be lifted in summer, disease incidence will peak again. Fast vaccine deployment contributes to reduce disease incidence in the first quarter of 2021, and delay the epidemic outbreak after the summer season. Higher vaccination coverage results in a delayed and reduced epidemic peak. A coverage of 75% - 80% is necessary to prevent an epidemic peak without further drastic contact reductions. Conclusions: With the vaccine becoming available, compliance with contact reductions is likely to fade. To prevent further economic damage from COVID-19, high levels of immunization need to be reached before next year's flu season, and vaccination strategies and disease management need to be flexibly adjusted. The predictive model can serve as a refined decision support tool for COVID-19 management.

scholarly journals Preliminary groundwater modelling by considering the interaction with superficial water: Aosta plain case (northern Italy)

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tullia Bonomi ◽  
Letizia Fumagalli ◽  
Valeria Benastini ◽  
Marco Rotiroti ◽  
Pietro Capodaglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Public Water Supply ◽  
Scientific Cooperation ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Hydrogeological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

The study is developed through scientific cooperation between the University of Milano-Bicocca and the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection (ARPA) of the Valle d’Aosta Region. Its aim is to produce a decision-support tool to help the Public Administration’manage groundwater and public water supply. The study area is the plain of Aosta, between the cities of Aymavilles and Brissogne; in this area groundwater represents the main source of public water supply. The valley is oriented east-west, along the Baltea for a length of 13.1 km and a width of 4.6 km. The textural and hydrogeological properties of the deposits are strictly connected to glacial deposition and to the subsequent sedimentary processes which took place in glacial, lacustrine and fluvial systems. The study is based on available well information in the Aosta plain - including water wells (133) and piezometers (121) - which have been coded and stored in the well database TANGRAM,. The database facilitates interpretation of the well data, and it allows three-dimensional mapping of subsurface hydrogeological characteristics through database codification and ordinary kriging interpolation. The study is designed to achieve two objectives. The first is to provide the Aosta Public Authorities with a well database in order to simplify groundwater management. The second is to provide Public Authorities with a groundwater flow model of the local aquifer. The model integrates surface and subsurface flows in order to fully account for all important stresses, both natural and anthropogenic, on the groundwater system. It provides a tool for testing hypotheses (such as the impact of new wells) and thereby allows science-based management of the aquifer resource.

scholarly journals Decision Support Tool for Offshore Wind Farm Vessel Routing under Uncertainty

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Dawid ◽  
David McMillan ◽  
Matthew Revie
Keyword(s):  
Wind Farm ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Offshore Wind Farm ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Impact

This paper for the first time captures the impact of uncertain maintenance action times on vessel routing for realistic offshore wind farm problems. A novel methodology is presented to incorporate uncertainties, e.g., on the expected maintenance duration, into the decision-making process. Users specify the extent to which these unknown elements impact the suggested vessel routing strategy. If uncertainties are present, the tool outputs multiple vessel routing policies with varying likelihoods of success. To demonstrate the tool’s capabilities, two case studies were presented. Firstly, simulations based on synthetic data illustrate that in a scenario with uncertainties, the cost-optimal solution is not necessarily the best choice for operators. Including uncertainties when calculating the vessel routing policy led to a 14% increase in the number of wind turbines maintained at the end of the day. Secondly, the tool was applied to a real-life scenario based on an offshore wind farm in collaboration with a United Kingdom (UK) operator. The results showed that the assignment of vessels to turbines generated by the tool matched the policy chosen by wind farm operators. By producing a range of policies for consideration, this tool provided operators with a structured and transparent method to assess trade-offs and justify decisions.

scholarly journals To Vaccinate or Not: Impact of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea in French Cow-Calf Herds

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1137
Author(s):  
Sandie Arnoux ◽  
Fabrice Bidan ◽  
Alix Damman ◽  
Etienne Petit ◽  
Sébastien Assié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Bovine Viral Diarrhoea ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Cow Calf

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) remains an issue despite control programs implemented worldwide. Virus introduction can occur through contacts with neighbouring herds. Vaccination can locally protect exposed herds. However, virus spread depends on herd characteristics, which may impair vaccination efficiency. Using a within-herd epidemiological model, we compared three French cow-calf farming systems named by their main breed: Charolaise, Limousine, and Blonde d’Aquitaine. We assessed vaccination strategies of breeding females assuming two possible protections: against infection or against vertical transmission. Four commercial vaccines were considered: Bovilis®, Bovela®, Rispoval®, and Mucosiffa®. We tested various virus introduction frequency in a naïve herd. We calculated BVD economic impact and vaccination reward. In Charolaise, BVD economic impact was 113€ per cow over 5 years after virus introduction. Irrespective of the vaccine and for a high enough risk of introduction, the yearly expected reward was 0.80€ per invested euro per cow. Vaccination should not be stopped before herd exposure has been decreased. In contrast, the reward was almost nil in Blonde d’Aquitaine and Limousine. This highlights the importance of accounting for herd specificities to assess BVD impact and vaccination efficiency. To guide farmers’ vaccination decisions against BVD, we transformed this model into a French decision support tool.

Using a decision support tool to screen for pro-poor policies: Application of Extrapolate to smallholder dairy systems in East Africa

2005 ◽  
Vol 2005 ◽  
pp. 28-28
Author(s):  
P. K. Thornton ◽  
P. J. Thorne ◽  
C. Quiros ◽  
D. Sheikh ◽  
R. L. Kruska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Intervention Mapping ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Target Groups ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Policy Alternatives ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact

Extrapolate (EX-ante Tool for RAnking POLicy AlTErnatives) is a decision support tool to assess the impact of policy measures on different target groups. It is designed to serve as a “filter” that, given the broad characteristics of the population, allows the user to sift through different policy measures to assess ex ante the broad potential impacts of these before deciding to look at particular policy options in more detail. Extrapolate models, in a very simple way, the impact of changes on constraints facing potential beneficiary groups, and how these may affect outcomes and their livelihood status. Extrapolate now makes use of mapping facilities from another decision-support tool, PRIMAS (Poverty Reduction Intervention Mapping in Agricultural Systems), that allows the user to match characteristics of particular technological options and constraints with the spatial characteristics of particular target groups in the landscape.

The Competition Between ISPs in Presence of the Net Neutrality

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 166
Author(s):  
Mohamed El Amrani ◽  
Hamid Garmani ◽  
Mohamed Baslam ◽  
Rachid El Ayachi
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Service ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Neutral Network ◽  
Net Neutrality ◽  
Internet Service ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Content Provider ◽  
The Impact

<p>In this work, we present an economic model of computer networks that describes the in-teraction between Internet Service Providers (ISP ), customers and content provider. The competition between ISP s may be translated by the prices they require and the qualities of service (QoS) they offer. The customer demand for service from an ISP does not only de-pend on the price and quality of service (QoS) of the ISP , but it is influenced by all those offered by its competitors. This behavior has been extensively analyzed using game the-ory as a decision support tool. We interpret a non-neutral network when a content provider privileges ISP s by offering them more bandwidth to ensure proper QoS to support ap-plications that require more data transport capacity (voice over internet protocol (V OIP ) the live video streaming, online gaming). In addition, our work focuses on the price game analysis and QoS between ISP s in two cases: neutral network and non-neutral network. After showing the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in terms of quality of service, we analyzed the impact of net neutrality on competition between ISP s. We also validated our theoretical study with numerical results, which show that the game has an equilibrium point which depends on all the parameters of the system.</p>

scholarly journals Clinical implementation of pharmacogenomics via a health system-wide research biobank: the University of Colorado experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 375-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina L Aquilante ◽  
David P Kao ◽  
Katy E Trinkley ◽  
Chen-Tan Lin ◽  
Kristy R Crooks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Health System ◽  
Clinical Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Clinical Implementation ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
University Of Colorado ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, the genomics community has witnessed the growth of large research biobanks, which collect DNA samples for research purposes. Depending on how and where the samples are genotyped, biobanks also offer the potential opportunity to return actionable genomic results to the clinical setting. We developed a preemptive clinical pharmacogenomic implementation initiative via a health system-wide research biobank at the University of Colorado. Here, we describe how preemptive return of clinical pharmacogenomic results via a research biobank is feasible, particularly when coupled with strong institutional support to maximize the impact and efficiency of biobank resources, a multidisciplinary implementation team, automated clinical decision support tools, and proactive strategies to engage stakeholders early in the clinical decision support tool development process.

scholarly journals BEETSOIL: a decision support tool for forecasting the impact of soil conditions on sugar beet harvest

2019 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 131-141
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Gabarron-Galeote ◽  
Jacqueline A. Hannam ◽  
Thomas Mayr ◽  
Patrick J. Jarvis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Sugar Beet ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Towards Designing Tools for Universities’ R&D Performance Measurement on Mobile Platform

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (04) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Mohd Faizal Omar ◽  
Siti Rasifah Ahmad Roshidi ◽  
Jastini Mohd. Jamil ◽  
Fazillah Mohmad Kamal ◽  
Mohd Nasrun Mohd Nawi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Education Institution ◽  
Mobile Platform ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Prototype Development ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

<p class="Abstract">At the moment, there is a great interest in most universities to achieve higher ranking for better international standings and visibility. With shrinking resources such as financial and infrastructures, there is also a huge demand for the university to move forward and perform better in Research and Development (R&amp;D) in each evaluation year. Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is an excellent tool to enculturate research in a Higher Education Institution (HEI). The culture must be built upon HEI’s strength and weaknesses. Hence, the right decision making tool must be develop to priorities different agendas such as QSWUR, THE, etc. Mobile platform provide an efficient way to engage with stakeholders particularly to measure HEI performance on R&amp;D. There are three main activities involves for developing a decision support tool for measuring R&amp;D impact in HEIs i.e. development of decision model using multi criteria decision making, dashboard prototype development including and UI/UX for mobile platform. This paper describe the importance of measuring the impact of R&amp;D, prioritization technique and the process of prototype development. It is anticipates that our work could mitigate the gaps and improve the research ecosystem in HEIs.</p>

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