scholarly journals PERSAMAAN DIFERENSIAL ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK DALAM PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
Amam Taufiq Hidayat ◽  
Subanar Subanar
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Compound Poisson Process ◽  
Geometric Brownian Motion ◽  
Data Simulation ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Brown Motion

Geometric Brownian motion is one of the most widely used stock price model. One of the assumptions that is filled with stock return volatility is constant. Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process a model to describe volatility in finance. Additionally, Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by Background Driving Levy Process (BDLP) compound Poisson process and the marginal law of volatility follows a Gamma distribution. Barndorff-Nielsen and Shepard (BNS) Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model can to sample the process for the stock price with volatility follows Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Based on these, the simulation result are compared BNS Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with geometric Brown motion for Standard and Poor (SP) 500 stock data. Simulation result give BNS Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and Geometric Brownian motion a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are 0,13 and 0,24 respectively. These result indicate that the BNS Gamma  Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model gives a more accurate  than Geometric Brownian motion

scholarly journals Forecasting model for crude oil price with structural break

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4-1) ◽  
pp. 421-424
Author(s):  
Norshela Mohd Noh ◽  
Arifah Bahar ◽  
Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Geometric Brownian Motion ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Material Procurement

Nowadays, in unstable economic environment, oil refining company is facing fluctuating crude oil price that causes unstable profit margin. Fluctuating crude oil price leads to difficulty in forecasting raw material procurement. Inaccurate forecast leads to inefficient decision making in optimizing refining company profit margin. In order to overcome an inaccurate in forecasting raw material procurement, an appropriate study of forecasting model is needed. Thus the objective of this study is to model fluctuating crude oil price based on geometric Brownian motion and mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and also to forecast fluctuating crude oil price with structural break. In modeling crude oil price, the information on whether the structural break exists is very crucial due to the long memory property might be camouflaged by the existence of the structural break. In this study, we employed long memory test to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) daily data from 2nd January 1986 to 31st August 2016 using log periodogram regression of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983). Bai and Perron test was applied to find break date. The result indicates that crude oil price is characterized by structural breaks. With the assumption that future price is affected by today’s price, we modeled and forecasted crude oil price using geometric Brownian motion and mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for 14 days, 30 days and 6 months. Results showed that forecasting crude oil price is highly accurate for short term with geometric Brownian motion compared to mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. 

scholarly journals MENENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL PADA PASAR SAHAM YANG BERGERAK DENGAN MODEL GERAK BROWN GEOMETRI MULTIDIMENSI

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
RISKA YUNITA ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN ◽  
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Exact Solution ◽  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Geometric Brownian Motion ◽  
Optimal Portfolio ◽  
The Future ◽  
Model Determination ◽  
Stock Price Movements

Model of stock price movements that follow stochastic process can be formulated in Stochastic Diferential Equation (SDE). The exact solution of SDE model is called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. Determination the optimal portfolio of three asset that follows Multidimensional GBM model is to be carried out in this research.Multidimensional GBM model represents stock price in the future is affected by three parameter, there are expectation of stock return, risk stock, and correlation between stock return. Therefore, theory of portfolio Markowitz is used on formation of optimal portfolio. Portfolio Markowitz formulates three of same parameter that is calculated on Multidimensional GBM model. The result of this research are optimal portfolio reaches with the proportion of fund are 39,38% for stock BBCA, 59,82% for stock ICBP, and 0,80% for stock INTP. This proportion of fund represents value of parameters that is calculated on modelling stock price.

scholarly journals The Geometric Brownian Motion of Indosat Telecommunications Daily Stock Price During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2084 (1) ◽  
pp. 012012
Author(s):  
Tiara Shofi Edriani ◽  
Udjianna Sekteria Pasaribu ◽  
Yuli Sri Afrianti ◽  
Ni Nyoman Wahyu Astute
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Geometric Brownian Motion ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Data Movement ◽  
Total Data

Abstract One of the major telecommunication and network service providers in Indonesia is PT Indosat Tbk. During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the daily stock price of that company was influenced by government policies. This study addresses stock data movement from February 5, 2020 to February 5, 2021, resulted in 243 data, using the Geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The stochastic process realization of this stock price fluctuates and increases exponentially, especially in the 40 latest data. Because of this situation, the realization is transformed into log 10 and calculated its return. As a result, weak stationary in variance is obtained. Furthermore, only data from December 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021 fulfill the GBM assumption of stock price return, as R t 1 * , t 1 * = 1 , 2 , 3 , … , 40 . The main idea of this study is adding datum one by one as much as 10% – 15% of the total data R t 1 * , starting from December 4, 2020 backwards. Following this procedure, and based on the 3% < p-value < 10%, the study shows that its datum can be included in R t 1 * , so t 1 * = − 4. − 3 , − 2 , … , 40 and form five other data groups, R t 2 * , … , R t 6 * . Considering Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and amount of data from each group, R t 6 * is selected for modelling. Thus, GBM succeeded in representing the stock price movement of the second most popular Indonesian telecommunication company during COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals On conditional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (04) ◽  
pp. 920-922
Author(s):  
P. Salminen
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Bessel Process ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Brownian Motions ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
The Law ◽  
Similar Description

It is well known that the law of a Brownian motion started from x &gt; 0 and conditioned never to hit 0 is identical with the law of a three-dimensional Bessel process started from x. Here we show that a similar description is valid for all linear Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Brownian motions. Further, using the same techniques, it is seen that we may construct a non-stationary Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process from a stationary one.

scholarly journals On the Entropy of Fractionally Integrated Gauss–Markov Processes

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2031
Author(s):  
Mario Abundo ◽  
Enrica Pirozzi
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Markov Process ◽  
Markov Processes ◽  
Numerical Approximation ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Sample Paths ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Application Fields

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the entropy of the dynamical system {Xα(t),t≥0}, where the stochastic process Xα(t) consists of the fractional Riemann–Liouville integral of order α∈(0,1) of a Gauss–Markov process. The study is based on a specific algorithm suitably devised in order to perform the simulation of sample paths of such processes and to evaluate the numerical approximation of the entropy. We focus on fractionally integrated Brownian motion and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process due their main rule in the theory and application fields. Their entropy is specifically estimated by computing its approximation (ApEn). We investigate the relation between the value of α and the complexity degree; we show that the entropy of Xα(t) is a decreasing function of α∈(0,1).

Admission Control for Multidimensional Workload input with Heavy Tails and Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 476-505
Author(s):  
Amarjit Budhiraja ◽  
Vladas Pipiras ◽  
Xiaoming Song
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Fractional Brownian Motion ◽  
Admission Control ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Admission Control Policy

The infinite source Poisson arrival model with heavy-tailed workload distributions has attracted much attention, especially in the modeling of data packet traffic in communication networks. In particular, it is well known that under suitable assumptions on the source arrival rate, the centered and scaled cumulative workload input process for the underlying processing system can be approximated by fractional Brownian motion. In many applications one is interested in the stabilization of the work inflow to the system by modifying the net input rate, using an appropriate admission control policy. In this paper we study a natural family of admission control policies which keep the associated scaled cumulative workload input asymptotically close to a prespecified linear trajectory, uniformly over time. Under such admission control policies and with natural assumptions on arrival distributions, suitably scaled and centered cumulative workload input processes are shown to converge weakly in the path space to the solution of a d-dimensional stochastic differential equation driven by a Gaussian process. It is shown that the admission control policy achieves moment stabilization in that the second moment of the solution to the stochastic differential equation (averaged over the d-stations) is bounded uniformly for all times. In one special case of control policies, as time approaches ∞, we obtain a fractional version of a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process that is driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H > ½.

scholarly journals Berry–Esséen bound for the parameter estimation of fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Chen ◽  
Nenghui Kuang ◽  
Ying Li
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Index Formula ◽  
Hurst Index ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Time Observation ◽  
Statistical Estimations ◽  
Drift Parameter

For an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index [Formula: see text], we show the Berry–Esséen bound of the least squares estimator of the drift parameter based on the continuous-time observation. We use an approach based on Malliavin calculus given by Kim and Park [Optimal Berry–Esséen bound for statistical estimations and its application to SPDE, J. Multivariate Anal. 155 (2017) 284–304].

Admission Control for Multidimensional Workload input with Heavy Tails and Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (02) ◽  
pp. 476-505
Author(s):  
Amarjit Budhiraja ◽  
Vladas Pipiras ◽  
Xiaoming Song
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Fractional Brownian Motion ◽  
Admission Control ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Ornstein Uhlenbeck Process ◽  
Admission Control Policy

The infinite source Poisson arrival model with heavy-tailed workload distributions has attracted much attention, especially in the modeling of data packet traffic in communication networks. In particular, it is well known that under suitable assumptions on the source arrival rate, the centered and scaled cumulative workload input process for the underlying processing system can be approximated by fractional Brownian motion. In many applications one is interested in the stabilization of the work inflow to the system by modifying the net input rate, using an appropriate admission control policy. In this paper we study a natural family of admission control policies which keep the associated scaled cumulative workload input asymptotically close to a prespecified linear trajectory, uniformly over time. Under such admission control policies and with natural assumptions on arrival distributions, suitably scaled and centered cumulative workload input processes are shown to converge weakly in the path space to the solution of a d-dimensional stochastic differential equation driven by a Gaussian process. It is shown that the admission control policy achieves moment stabilization in that the second moment of the solution to the stochastic differential equation (averaged over the d-stations) is bounded uniformly for all times. In one special case of control policies, as time approaches ∞, we obtain a fractional version of a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process that is driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H &gt; ½.

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