scholarly journals Time series forecasting of styrene price using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 915
Author(s):  
Ali Ebrahimi Ghahnavieh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Ann Models

Every player in the market has a greater need to know about the smallest change in the market. Therefore, the ability to see what is ahead is a valuable advantage. The purpose of this research is to make an attempt to understand the behavioral patterns and try to find a new hybrid forecasting approach based on ARIMA-ANN for estimating styrene price. The time series analysis and forecasting is an essential tool which could be widely useful for finding the significant characteristics for making future decisions. In this study ARIMA, ANN and Hybrid ARIMA-ANN models were applied to evaluate the previous behavior of a time series data, in order to make interpretations about its future behavior for styrene price. Experimental results with real data sets show that the combined model can be most suitable to improve forecasting accurateness rather than traditional time series forecasting methodologies. As a subset of the literature, the small number of studies have been done to realize the new forecasting methods for forecasting styrene price.

scholarly journals Multiplicative Error Modeling Approach for Time Series Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Poulami Chowdhury ◽  
Tanujit Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Error Modeling ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Multiplicative Error ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

Real-world time series data sets contain a combination of linear and nonlinear patterns, making the time series forecasting problem more challenging. In this paper, a new hybrid methodology is introduced for forecasting univariate time series data sets using a multiplicative error modeling approach. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is combined with an autoregressive neural network (ARNN) for improving the predictions of individual forecast models. The proposed multiplicative ARIMA-ARNN model glorifies the chances of capturing the different combinations of linear and nonlinear patterns in time series. The model shows outstanding performance on six standard time-series data sets compared to other widely used single and hybrid forecasting models.

scholarly journals Load forecasting of refrigerated display cabinet based on CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combined model

Open Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 360-374
Author(s):  
Yuan Pei ◽  
Lei Zhenglin ◽  
Zeng Qinghui ◽  
Wu Yixiao ◽  
Lu Yanli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Consumption Reduction

Abstract The load of the showcase is a nonlinear and unstable time series data, and the traditional forecasting method is not applicable. Deep learning algorithms are introduced to predict the load of the showcase. Based on the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM combination algorithm, this paper builds a refrigerated display cabinet load forecasting model. Compared with the forecast results of other models, it finally proves that the CEEMD–IPSO–LSTM model has the highest load forecasting accuracy, and the model’s determination coefficient is 0.9105, which is obviously excellent. Compared with other models, the model constructed in this paper can predict the load of showcases, which can provide a reference for energy saving and consumption reduction of display cabinet.

scholarly journals Cell cycle time series gene expression data encoded as cyclic attractors in Hopfield systems

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Szedlak ◽  
Spencer Sims ◽  
Nicholas Smith ◽  
Giovanni Paternostro ◽  
Carlo Piermarocchi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Gene Expression ◽  
Cell Cycle ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Expression Data ◽  
Time Series Gene Expression ◽  
Human Cervical Cancer

AbstractModern time series gene expression and other omics data sets have enabled unprecedented resolution of the dynamics of cellular processes such as cell cycle and response to pharmaceutical compounds. In anticipation of the proliferation of time series data sets in the near future, we use the Hopfield model, a recurrent neural network based on spin glasses, to model the dynamics of cell cycle in HeLa (human cervical cancer) and S. cerevisiae cells. We study some of the rich dynamical properties of these cyclic Hopfield systems, including the ability of populations of simulated cells to recreate experimental expression data and the effects of noise on the dynamics. Next, we use a genetic algorithm to identify sets of genes which, when selectively inhibited by local external fields representing gene silencing compounds such as kinase inhibitors, disrupt the encoded cell cycle. We find, for example, that inhibiting the set of four kinases BRD4, MAPK1, NEK7, and YES1 in HeLa cells causes simulated cells to accumulate in the M phase. Finally, we suggest possible improvements and extensions to our model.Author SummaryCell cycle – the process in which a parent cell replicates its DNA and divides into two daughter cells – is an upregulated process in many forms of cancer. Identifying gene inhibition targets to regulate cell cycle is important to the development of effective therapies. Although modern high throughput techniques offer unprecedented resolution of the molecular details of biological processes like cell cycle, analyzing the vast quantities of the resulting experimental data and extracting actionable information remains a formidable task. Here, we create a dynamical model of the process of cell cycle using the Hopfield model (a type of recurrent neural network) and gene expression data from human cervical cancer cells and yeast cells. We find that the model recreates the oscillations observed in experimental data. Tuning the level of noise (representing the inherent randomness in gene expression and regulation) to the “edge of chaos” is crucial for the proper behavior of the system. We then use this model to identify potential gene targets for disrupting the process of cell cycle. This method could be applied to other time series data sets and used to predict the effects of untested targeted perturbations.

An Efficient Method for Forecasting Using Fuzzy Time Series

2017 ◽  
pp. 287-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pritpal Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Small Error ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Temperature Forecasting ◽  
The University

Forecasting using fuzzy time series has been applied in several areas including forecasting university enrollments, sales, road accidents, financial forecasting, weather forecasting, etc. Recently, many researchers have paid attention to apply fuzzy time series in time series forecasting problems. In this paper, we present a new model to forecast the enrollments in the University of Alabama and the daily average temperature in Taipei, based on one-factor fuzzy time series. In this model, a new frequency based clustering technique is employed for partitioning the time series data sets into different intervals. For defuzzification function, two new principles are also incorporated in this model. In case of enrollments as well daily temperature forecasting, proposed model exhibits very small error rate.

scholarly journals Partial Correlation-Based Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 13720-13721
Author(s):  
Won Kyung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Partial Correlation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Dependency Structure ◽  
Agnostic Learning

A multivariate time-series forecasting has great potentials in various domains. However, it is challenging to find dependency structure among the time-series variables and appropriate time-lags for each variable, which change dynamically over time. In this study, I suggest partial correlation-based attention mechanism which overcomes the shortcomings of existing pair-wise comparisons-based attention mechanisms. Moreover, I propose data-driven series-wise multi-resolution convolutional layers to represent the input time-series data for domain agnostic learning.

scholarly journals How to Identify Varying Lead–Lag Effects in Time Series Data: Implementation, Validation, and Application of the Generalized Causality Algorithm

Algorithms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Stübinger ◽  
Katharina Adler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Linear Mapping ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Silver Metal

This paper develops the generalized causality algorithm and applies it to a multitude of data from the fields of economics and finance. Specifically, our parameter-free algorithm efficiently determines the optimal non-linear mapping and identifies varying lead–lag effects between two given time series. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences—structural breaks in their relationship are also captured. A large-scale simulation study validates the outperformance in the vast majority of parameter constellations in terms of efficiency, robustness, and feasibility. Finally, the presented methodology is applied to real data from the areas of macroeconomics, finance, and metal. Highest similarity show the pairs of gross domestic product and consumer price index (macroeconomics), S&P 500 index and Deutscher Aktienindex (finance), as well as gold and silver (metal). In addition, the algorithm takes full use of its flexibility and identifies both various structural breaks and regime patterns over time, which are (partly) well documented in the literature.

scholarly journals AstroCatR: a mechanism and tool for efficient time series reconstruction of large-scale astronomical catalogues

2020 ◽  
Vol 496 (1) ◽  
pp. 629-637
Author(s):  
Ce Yu ◽  
Kun Li ◽  
Shanjiang Tang ◽  
Chao Sun ◽  
Bin Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extrasolar Planets ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Data Volume ◽  
And Performance

ABSTRACT Time series data of celestial objects are commonly used to study valuable and unexpected objects such as extrasolar planets and supernova in time domain astronomy. Due to the rapid growth of data volume, traditional manual methods are becoming extremely hard and infeasible for continuously analysing accumulated observation data. To meet such demands, we designed and implemented a special tool named AstroCatR that can efficiently and flexibly reconstruct time series data from large-scale astronomical catalogues. AstroCatR can load original catalogue data from Flexible Image Transport System (FITS) files or data bases, match each item to determine which object it belongs to, and finally produce time series data sets. To support the high-performance parallel processing of large-scale data sets, AstroCatR uses the extract-transform-load (ETL) pre-processing module to create sky zone files and balance the workload. The matching module uses the overlapped indexing method and an in-memory reference table to improve accuracy and performance. The output of AstroCatR can be stored in CSV files or be transformed other into formats as needed. Simultaneously, the module-based software architecture ensures the flexibility and scalability of AstroCatR. We evaluated AstroCatR with actual observation data from The three Antarctic Survey Telescopes (AST3). The experiments demonstrate that AstroCatR can efficiently and flexibly reconstruct all time series data by setting relevant parameters and configuration files. Furthermore, the tool is approximately 3× faster than methods using relational data base management systems at matching massive catalogues.

FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT EASTERN AND WESTERN MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS

Fractals ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 165-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
ATIN DAS ◽  
PRITHA DAS
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Fractal Dimension ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Musical Instruments ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Frequency Regime ◽  
Musical Sounds

In this paper, we attempt musical analysis by measuring fractal dimension (D) of musical pieces played by several musical instruments. We collected solo performances of popular instruments of Western and Eastern origin as samples. We attempted usual spectral analysis of the selected clips to observe peaks of fundamental and harmonics in frequency regime. After appropriate processing, we converted them into time series data sets and computed their fractal dimension. Based on our results, we conclude that instrumental musical sounds may have higher Ds than those computed from vocal performances of different types of Indian songs.

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