Prediction of temperature variations using artificial neural networks and ARIMA model

Author(s):  
Ali Namazian ◽  
Masoud Ghodsi ◽  
Khaled Nawaser
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.A. Buratto ◽  
R. Timofeiczyk Junior ◽  
J.C.G.L. Silva ◽  
J.R. Frega ◽  
M.S.S.A. Wiecheteck ◽  
...  

The objective of this study was to analyze the application of an artificial neural networks model and an ARIMA model to predict the consumption of sawnwood of pine. For this, we use real and secondary data collected and obtained from a historical data source, corresponding to the period from 1997 to 2016, which were later tested to generate the forecast models. Based on economic and statistical criteria, six explanatory variables were used to fit the best model. The choice of the model was made based on Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Theil U metric, Percentage Error of Forecast and Akaike value information criterion. The results indicated that the models generated through the ARIMA model presented better performance when compared to the artificial neural network. The best adjusted model estimated a reduction of 1.33% in consumption of sawnwood of pine in Brazil for the period between 2017 and 2020.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavitra Kumar ◽  
Sai Hin Lai ◽  
Jee Khai Wong ◽  
Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd ◽  
Md Rowshon Kamal ◽  
...  

The prediction of nitrogen not only assists in monitoring the nitrogen concentration in streams but also helps in optimizing the usage of fertilizers in agricultural fields. A precise prediction model guarantees the delivering of better-quality water for human use, as the operations of various water treatment plants depend on the concentration of nitrogen in streams. Considering the stochastic nature and the various hydrological variables upon which nitrogen concentration depends, a predictive model should be efficient enough to account for all the complexities of nature in the prediction of nitrogen concentration. For two decades, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and other models (such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, hybrid model, etc.), used for predicting different complex hydrological parameters, have proved efficient and accurate up to a certain extent. In this review paper, such prediction models, created for predicting nitrogen concentration, are critically analyzed, comparing their accuracy and input variables. Moreover, future research works aiming to predict nitrogen using advanced techniques and more reliable and appropriate input variables are also discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 174830261988112
Author(s):  
Zineb Aman ◽  
Latifa Ezzine ◽  
Younes Fakhradine El Bahi ◽  
Haj EL Moussami

Recently, the petroleum sector in Morocco has been liberalized which has a significant effect for petroleum product distributors. Since the beginning of December 2015, fuel prices are freely determined. This event presents many constraints affecting the balance of the sector plus the competition between its economic players. The lack of accompanying measures by the State makes this vital reform for public finances that stop subsidizing the price of gasoline vulnerable. As all fuel products are imported, we will be interested in the evolution by making forecasts of the price of fuels in the Moroccan market. In this context, our paper aims mainly to study the selling price of diesel and gasoline in order to provide precise forecasts to the company and to respect the permissible error margin of 3%. To this end, we worked with a widely used approach for price forecasting: artificial neural networks technique (radial basis function). Recently, it is suggested to work with artificial neural networks in forecasting field as an alternative to the traditional linear methods. We developed a radial basis function network to come up with conclusions in terms of the superiority in forecasting performance. Consequently, the radial basis function technique proved its strength manifested in the error that was further minimized: 1.95% instead of 2.85% for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model used in our previous work. The error is further minimized by applying radial basis function technique.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayodele Ariyo Adebiyi ◽  
Aderemi Oluyinka Adewumi ◽  
Charles Korede Ayo

This paper examines the forecasting performance of ARIMA and artificial neural networks model with published stock data obtained from New York Stock Exchange. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of neural networks model over ARIMA model. The findings further resolve and clarify contradictory opinions reported in literature over the superiority of neural networks and ARIMA model and vice versa.


Author(s):  
Kobiljon Kh. Zoidov ◽  
◽  
Svetlana V. Ponomareva ◽  
Daniel I. Serebryansky ◽  
◽  
...  

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