Use of Artificial Neural Networks and Arima to Forecasting Consumption Sawnwood of Pinus sp. in Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.A. Buratto ◽  
R. Timofeiczyk Junior ◽  
J.C.G.L. Silva ◽  
J.R. Frega ◽  
M.S.S.A. Wiecheteck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural

The objective of this study was to analyze the application of an artificial neural networks model and an ARIMA model to predict the consumption of sawnwood of pine. For this, we use real and secondary data collected and obtained from a historical data source, corresponding to the period from 1997 to 2016, which were later tested to generate the forecast models. Based on economic and statistical criteria, six explanatory variables were used to fit the best model. The choice of the model was made based on Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Theil U metric, Percentage Error of Forecast and Akaike value information criterion. The results indicated that the models generated through the ARIMA model presented better performance when compared to the artificial neural network. The best adjusted model estimated a reduction of 1.33% in consumption of sawnwood of pine in Brazil for the period between 2017 and 2020.

scholarly journals ARIMA Model Selection for Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. p31
Author(s):  
Zul Amry ◽  
Budi Halomoan Siregar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Stock Price Index

Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) can be used as a reflection of the national economic condition of a country because it is an indicator to know the development the capital market in a country. Therefore, the movement in the future needs to be forecast. This study aims to build a model for the time series forecasting of Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) using the ARIMA model. The data used is the monthly data of ICI in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from January 2000 until December 2017 as many as 216 data. The method used in this research is the Box-Jenkins method. The autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) are used for stationary test and model identification. The maximum estimated likelihood is used to estimate the parameter model. In addition, to select a model then used Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Ljung-Box Q statistics are used for diagnostic tests. In addition, to show the accuracy of the model, we use Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the most appropriate model is ARIMA (0, 1, 1).

scholarly journals Estimating modulus of elasticity (MOE) of particleboards using artificial neural networks to reduce quality measurements and costs

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 257-263
Author(s):  
Rıfat Kurt ◽  
Selman Karayilmazlar
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Modulus Of Elasticity ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Artificial Neural

There are a large number of costs that enterprises need to bear in order to produce the same product at the same quality for a more affordable price. For this reason, enterprises have to minimize their expenses through a couple of measures in order to offer the same product for a lower price by minimizing these costs. Today, quality control and measurements constitute one of the major cost items of enterprises. In this study, the modulus of elasticity values of particleboards were estimated by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and other mechanical properties of particleboards in order to reduce the measurement costs in particleboard enterprises. In addition to that, the future values of modulus of elasticity were also estimated using the same variables with the purpose of monitoring the state of the process. For this purpose, data regarding the mechanical properties of the boards were randomly collected from the enterprise for three months. The sample size (n) was: 6 and the number of samples (m): 65 and a total of 65 average measurement values were obtained for each mechanical property. As a result of the implementation, the low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) performance measures of the model clearly showed that some quality characteristics could easily be estimated by the enterprises without having to make any measurements by ANN.

Prediction by using spectral analysis and artificial neural networks methodologies: Comparison Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Habib Al- Sharoot ◽  
Emaan Yousif Abdoon
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Stable Economy

The variations in exchange rate, especially the sudden unexpected increases and decreases, have significant impact on the national economy of any country. Iraq is no exception; therefore, the accurate forecasting of exchange rate of Iraqi dinar to US dollar plays an important role in the planning and decision-making processes as well as the maintenance of a stable economy in Iraq. This research aims to compare spectral analysis methodology to artificial neural networks in terms of forecasting the exchange rate of Iraqi dinar to US dollar based on data provided by the Iraqi Central Bank for the period 30/01/2004 and 30/12/2014. Based on the Mean Square Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as criteria to compare the two methodologies, it was concluded that is artificial neural networks better than spectral analysis approach in forecasting.

Artificial Neural Networks Estimation for Thicknesses of Multilayer Nano-Scale Films

2019 ◽  
Vol 962 ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Tzong Daw Wu ◽  
Jiun Shen Chen ◽  
Ching Pei Tseng ◽  
Cheng Chang Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Thin Films ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Film Growth ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Thin Film Optics ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study presents a real-time method for determining the thickness of each layer in multilayer thin films. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were introduced to estimate thicknesses from a transmittance spectrum. After training via theoretical spectra which were generated by thin-film optics and modified by noise, ANNs were applied to estimate the thicknesses of four-layer nanoscale films which were TiO2, Ag, Ti, and TiO2 thin films assembled sequentially on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrates. The results reveal that the mean squared error of the estimation is 2.6 nm2, and is accurate enough to monitor film growth in real time.

Prediction of Fracture Force of Weld Line Based on Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 314-316 ◽  
pp. 547-553
Author(s):  
Peng Fei Zhu ◽  
Xiao Fang Sun ◽  
Ying Jun Lu ◽  
Hai Tian Pan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Process Parameters ◽  
Weld Line ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Maximum Relative Error ◽  
Melt Temperature ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Fracture Force ◽  
Artificial Neural

A feed-forward three-layer neural network was proposed to predict the fracture force of injection-molded parts’ weld line. Firstly, the most significant process parameters which affect the fracture force of weld line were analyzed. Secondly, melt temperature, injection pressure, holding pressure and holding time were chosen as import variables and the fracture force of weld line was chosen as output variable to construct artificial neural networks. Furthermore, the performance of ANN was evaluated and tested by its application to verification tests with process parameters randomly selected which all of them were not used in the network training. Results showed that the ANN predictions yield mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the range of 0.86％,and maximum relative error (MRE) in the range of 1.84％ for the test data set, and which can comparatively accurately reflect the influence relation of the injection process parameters on part’s quality index under the circumstance of data deficiencies.

scholarly journals A Methodology for Energy Load Profile Forecasting Based on Intelligent Clustering and Smoothing Techniques

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4040
Author(s):  
Jamer Jiménez Mares ◽  
Loraine Navarro ◽  
Christian G. Quintero M. ◽  
Mauricio Pardo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
High Level ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
Demand Changes

The electrical sector needs to study how energy demand changes to plan the maintenance and purchase of energy assets properly. Prediction studies for energy demand require a high level of reliability since a deviation in the forecasting demand could affect operation costs. This paper proposed a short-term forecasting energy demand methodology based on hierarchical clustering using Dynamic Time Warp as a similarity measure integrated with Artificial Neural Networks. Clustering was used to build the typical curve for each type of day, while Artificial Neural Networks handled the weather sensibility to correct a preliminary forecasting curve obtained in the clustering stage. A statistical analysis was carried out to identify those significant factors in the prediction model of energy demand. The performance of this proposed model was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The experimental results show that the three-stage methodology was able to improve the MAPE, reaching values as good as 2%.

scholarly journals Modelling and Predicting Backstroke Start Performance Using Non-Linear And Linear Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karla de Jesus ◽  
Helon V. H. Ayala ◽  
Kelly de Jesus ◽  
Leandro dos S. Coelho ◽  
Alexandre I.A. Medeiros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Start Time ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Artificial Neural

AbstractOur aim was to compare non-linear and linear mathematical model responses for backstroke start performance prediction. Ten swimmers randomly completed eight 15 m backstroke starts with feet over the wedge, four with hands on the highest horizontal and four on the vertical handgrip. Swimmers were videotaped using a dual media camera set-up, with the starts being performed over an instrumented block with four force plates. Artificial neural networks were applied to predict 5 m start time using kinematic and kinetic variables and to determine the accuracy of the mean absolute percentage error. Artificial neural networks predicted start time more robustly than the linear model with respect to changing training to the validation dataset for the vertical handgrip (3.95 ± 1.67 vs. 5.92 ± 3.27%). Artificial neural networks obtained a smaller mean absolute percentage error than the linear model in the horizontal (0.43 ± 0.19 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19%) and vertical handgrip (0.45 ± 0.19 vs. 1.38 ± 0.30%) using all input data. The best artificial neural network validation revealed a smaller mean absolute error than the linear model for the horizontal (0.007 vs. 0.04 s) and vertical handgrip (0.01 vs. 0.03 s). Artificial neural networks should be used for backstroke 5 m start time prediction due to the quite small differences among the elite level performances.

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