Explaining Trump’s Support: What We Saw and Heard At His Campaign Rallies

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Dickinson
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Hard Work ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
Economic Anxiety

Abstract More than a year after his surprise victory, scholars continue to debate why Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election. Two explanations – economic anxiety and racial resentment – are commonly cited. Drawing on open-ended interviews with Trump supporters and observations at multiple Trump campaign rallies, we find that both explanations, as commonly presented, do not fully capture the dynamics underlying Trump’s support. Rather than racial animosity or concern over their personal economic status, we believe that Trump’s supporters were primarily focused on what they saw as an increasingly biased political and economic system that no longer rewarded hard work and playing by the rules.

The Tribal Economy: Economic Perceptions, Economic Anxiety and the Prospects for Political Accountability

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-542
Author(s):  
Diana C. Mutz
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Change ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
The Us ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Economic Anxiety ◽  
Incumbent Party

Abstract Whether American citizens hold presidents accountable for changes in the condition of the economy has increasingly been questioned. At the same time, the outcome of the 2016 election has been widely interpreted in economic terms. Press and pundits on both sides of the aisle have endorsed the “left behind” voter thesis suggesting that those who were economically dissatisfied or anxious voted against the incumbent party and thus elected Donald Trump. Likewise, some have argued that Trump would have won again in 2021 if not for the economic downturn caused by the COVID19 pandemic. In this study I use seven waves of nationally-representative panel data to examine change over time in individuals’ perceptions of the economy across the two most recent presidential election periods. I compare the magnitude of change from partisan rationalization of the economy to the magnitude of changes in perceptions due to the record-breaking decline in GDP during the year that COVID19 hit the US. My results provide little to no evidence that changes in perceptions due to real economic change were strong enough to overcome the effects of partisan rationalization. Given that the COVID19 recession was unusually severe, these results provide little reason for optimism that voters can hold leaders accountable for economic change.

Why Did Women Vote for Donald Trump?

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (03) ◽  
pp. 523-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Setzler ◽  
Alixandra B. Yanus
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Social Roles ◽  
White Men ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Important Predictor ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Traditional Values ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Racial Resentment

ABSTRACTPopular accounts of the 2016 presidential election attribute Donald Trump’s victory to the mobilization of angry white men seeking to restore traditional values and social roles. Whereas a majority of Trump voters were male, more than 40% of women who went to the polls on Election Day also supported him. This analysis explores the motivations of these women, asking how partisanship, demographics, and beliefs motivated their vote choice. We found that, although party affiliation was an important predictor of both women’s and men’s vote choice, sexism and racial resentment had a greater influence on voters of both genders. Moreover, the influence of these biases was similar for women and men.

Millennials and Race in the 2016 Election

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Enrique Medenica
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Ethnically Diverse ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Eligible Population ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
2016 Election

AbstractIn addition to being the most racially and ethnically diverse generation, millennials comprised an equal number of the voting-eligible population as baby boomers in 2016 and are projected to become the largest share of the American voting-eligible population by 2018. Drawing from several distinct datasets, this study explores three primary topics: (1) examining how race influenced the vote choice of millennials in the 2016 presidential election; (2) comparing partisanship and vote choice among white millennials to older whites; and (3) identifying differences between white millennials who voted in 2016 to those who did not cast a ballot. The study finds that young whites are the outlier category of their age group; being white is associated with a higher probability of voting for Donald Trump, even when accounting for the effects of racial resentment, partisanship, ideology, and other factors. While white millennials appear conservative relative to their peers of color, however, the preferences of young whites are more Democratic than older whites. Non-voting white millennials are more likely than their voting counterparts to identify as independents and ideological moderates, making them a political swing bloc as white millennials age. While political observers are quick to point to the liberal-leaning preferences of young people as a whole, disaggregating the 18–30 age group by race as this study suggests that the Democratic preferences displayed by millennials in the aggregate are largely driven by the cohort's racial and ethnic diversity.

Religion and the 2020 Presidential Election: The Enduring Divide

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Campbell ◽  
James R. G. Kirk ◽  
Geoffrey C. Layman
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Limited Government ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
Evangelical Protestants ◽  
Voting Decisions

Abstract Religion played a prominent role in the 2020 presidential campaign. Donald Trump overtly courted white evangelical Protestants and Catholics, while Joe Biden emphasized his Catholicism far more than any Catholic candidate in American history. Did religion play as important a role in electoral behavior in 2020? If so, how and why did religion affect Americans’ voting decisions? We take up those questions by analyzing the religious vote in 2020 and the reasons why particular religious and non-religious groups voted as they did. We find that the religious divisions in the 2020 electorate were quite deep, but they were mostly unchanged from those present in 2016. Moreover, some electoral differences between religious groups are based in factors such as racial resentment, support for limited government, and anti-immigration attitudes that are not typically associated with religion. However, a key explanation for religious voting in 2020 was an old standby: the abortion issue. The religion gap in American electoral politics represents an enduring divide. The only changes were at the margins—but where elections are close, margins matter.

Examining false beliefs about voter fraud in the wake of the 2020 Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon Pennycook ◽  
David Gertler Rand
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
False Beliefs ◽  
Wide Spread ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
Voter Fraud ◽  
Election News

The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election saw an unprecedented number of false claims alleging election fraud and arguing that Donald Trump was the actual winner of the election. Here we report a survey exploring belief in these false claims that was conducted three days after Biden was declared the winner. We find that a majority of Trump voters in our sample – particularly those who were more politically knowl-edgeable and more closely following election news – falsely believed that election fraud was wide-spread and that Trump won the election. Thus, false beliefs about the election are not merely a fringe phenomenon. We also find that Trump conceding or losing his legal challenges would likely lead a ma-jority of Trump voters to accept Biden’s victory as legitimate, although 40% said they would continue to view Biden as illegitimate regardless. Finally, we found that levels of partisan spite and endorsement of violence were equivalent between Trump and Biden voters.

Masks and Emasculation: Populist Crisis Rhetoric and the 2020 Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
pp. 000276422110112
Author(s):  
Meredith Neville-Shepard
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rhetorical Analysis ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Preventative Measure ◽  
Litmus Test

This essay illustrates how Donald Trump engaged in what I call “populist crisis rhetoric” throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and coinciding 2020 U.S. presidential campaign cycle. By performing a critical rhetorical analysis of textual fragments surrounding how Trump addressed the preventative measure of mask-wearing, I show how he rejected the role of comforter-in-chief and instead opted for the role of victim-in-chief. Specifically, turning the bare face into a litmus test of Trump loyalism, his rhetoric suggested that masks threatened masculinity and functioned as a form of anti-choice bodily oppression.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

A King Cyrus President

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 502-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Barrett-Fox
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Action ◽  
The United States ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Moral Majority ◽  
Open Coding

Religious right leaders and voters in the United States supported Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election for the same reason that all blocs vote as they do: They believed that the candidate offered them the best opportunity to protect and extend their power and create their preferred government. The puzzle of their support, then, is less why they chose Trump and more how they navigated the process of inserting Trump into their story of themselves as a “moral” majority. This self-understanding promotes and exploits feelings of entitlement, fear, resentment, and the desire to dominate to encourage political action. Because Trump’s speeches affirm these feelings, religious right voters were open to writing a plot twist in their story, casting Trump as a King Cyrus figure, as their champion if not a coreligionist. This article analyzes appeals to and expressions of entitlement, fear, resentment, and the desire to dominate from more than 60 sermons, speeches, and books by religious right authors, Donald Trump, and Trump surrogates. Using open coding, it identifies themes in how these emotions are recognized, affirmed, and invoked by speakers, focusing on Trump’s Cyrus effect.

scholarly journals Presidential campaign of Volodimir Zelensky: Usage of Donald Trump’s experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 698-713
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Kosyakov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Political Leader ◽  
Common Elements ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Counter Culture ◽  
Image Building ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The One ◽  
Presidential Election Campaign

Introduction: the article contains the analysis of the unique features of Volodimir Zelensky’s presidential election campaign, the success of which is based on the image of a political leader deliberately built as totally different from the one traditional for the Ukraine’s political elite. Objectives: studying the main political trends in presidential campaigns of Volodimir Zelensky and Donald Trump, to identify common elements of their image-building strategies. Methods: comparative analysis. Results: the study verifies the effectiveness of building the counter-culture image of a political leader in the conditions of high levels of political cynicism and citizens’ distrust to their government. Conclusions: the tactics used by Donald Trump and Volodimir Zelensky during the 2016 US elections and 2019 Ukrainian elections respectively are similar at their core. The difference manifests itself in the types of political images used, as formed with respect to the candidates’ previous careers.

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