scholarly journals Prediction of precipitation deficit and excess in Bydgoszcz Region in view of predicted climate change/ Prognoza niedoboru i nadmiaru opadu w rejonie Bydgoszczy w świetle przewidywanej zmiany klimatu

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Bąk ◽  
Leszek Łabędzki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Boundary Values ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Standardised Precipitation Index ◽  
Predicted Values

Abstract The paper presents the prediction of rainfall shortage and excess in Bydgoszcz region in the growing seasons (April-September) in 2011-2050 in the perspective of climate change. Based on the predicted monthly sum of precipitations for the percentile 50%, calculated by the regional climate model RM5.1 for Poland with boundary values taken from global model ARPEGE, a decrease in the amount of rainfall during the growing season by approximately 55 mm is predicted, compared to 1971-2000 taken as a reference period. The qualification of rainfall shortage and excess was made using the standardised precipitation index (SPI). According to the predicted values of SPI, the occurrence of 38 months of rainfall excess and 40 months of rainfall deficit in the period 2011-2050 is predicted. Dry months will constitute 16% of all months, wet months - 13%, and normal months - 71%. The occurrence of 13 several-month long periods of rainfall excess and 14 such periods of drought are predicted. The longest periods of both wet and dry weather will last 5 months. So long wet periods are expected in 2020, 2022 and 2031, and drought periods in 2017-2018, 2023-2024 and from 2046 to 2049.

scholarly journals Thermal conditions in Bydgoszcz Region in growing seasons of 2011–2050 in view of expected climate change/ Warunki termiczne w rejonie Bydgoszczy w okresie wegetacyjnym w latach 2011–2050 w świetle przewidywanej zmiany klimatu

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Bąk ◽  
Leszek Łabędzki
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Boundary Values ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Change In The Mean ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The paper presents an analyse of the scenario of expected changes in monthly mean air temperature of months in the growing season (April-September) and growing seasons of 2011-2050 in Bydgoszcz Region. Prediction of thermal conditions is made using regional climate model RM5.1 with boundary values taken from global model ARPEGE. When compared with the reference period 1971-2000, an increase of mean air temperature should be expected in most months and growing seasons of the years 2011-2050. The biggest positive change in the mean monthly temperature is predicted for July (1.5°C) and August (1.2°C). In 2011-2050 significant increase trends of air temperature change can be expected in April, June and August. According to the thermal classification proposed by Lorenc, normal, slightly warm and slightly cool months and growing periods will dominate. The frequency of normal and slightly cool growing periods will decrease and the frequency of slightly warm growing periods will increase.

On the added value of the regional climate model REMO in the assessment of climate change signal over Central Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3813-3838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo ◽  
Derbetini A. Vondou ◽  
Wilfried M. Pokam ◽  
Zéphirin Yepdo Djomou ◽  
Ismaïla Diallo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Climate Change Signal

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2133-2155
Author(s):  
Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Chain ◽  
Small Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

scholarly journals Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chakrit Chotamonsak ◽  
Eric P. Salathé ◽  
Jiemjai Kreasuwan ◽  
Somporn Chantara ◽  
Kingkeo Siriwitayakorn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate

scholarly journals How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

Atmosphere ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Bastian Eggert ◽  
Alberto Elizalde ◽  
Andreas Haensler ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Signal
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document