scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Woo Lee ◽  
Suryun Ham ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Kei Yoshimura ◽  
Minsu Joh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussain Alsarraf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period’s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1◦C to 3 ◦C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.</p><p><strong> </strong></p>

scholarly journals Development of Statistically Downscaled Regional Climate Model based on Representative Concentration Pathways for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 945 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Chin Kah Seng ◽  
Tan Kok Weng ◽  
Akihiko Nakayama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Climate change is one of the challenging global issues that our world is facing and it is intensely debated on the international agenda. It is a fact that climate change has brought about many disastrous events on a global scale which affect our livelihoods. Climate models are commonly used by researchers to study the magnitude of the changing climate and to simulate future climate projections. Most climate models are developed based on various interactions among the Earth’s climate components such as the land surface, oceans, atmosphere and sea-ice. In this study, the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was statistically downscaled to develop a regional climate model (RCM) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The RCM will be used to simulate the average minimum and maximum temperatures and average precipitation for Ipoh, Subang and KLIA Sepang in Peninsular Malaysia for the years 2006 to 2100. The simulated data were bias corrected using the historical observation data of monthly average minimum and maximum temperatures and monthly average rainfall retrieved from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD). The different trends of the simulated data for all the three locations based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for future climate projection.

Heat stress projections for major European cities from high-resolution regional climate model simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Schwingshackl ◽  
Anne Sophie Daloz ◽  
Carley Iles ◽  
Nina Schuhen ◽  
Jana Sillmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Stress Indicators ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>Cities are hotspots of human heat stress due to their large number of inhabitants and the urban heat island effect leading to amplified temperatures. Exposure to heat stress in urban areas is projected to further increase in the future, mainly due to climate change and expected increases in the number of people living in cities. The impacts of climate change in cities have been investigated in numerous studies, but rarely using climate models due to their coarse spatial resolution compared to the typical areal extent of cities. Recent advances in regional climate modelling now give access to an ensemble of high-resolution simulations for Europe, allowing for much more detailed analyses of small-scale features, such as city climate.</p><p>Focusing on Europe, we compare the evolution of several heat stress indicators for 36 major European cities, based on regional climate model simulations from EURO-CORDEX. The applied EURO-CORDEX ensemble (Vautard et al., 2020) has a spatial resolution of 0.11° (~11 km; comparable to the extent of large cities) and contains over 60 ensemble members, allowing thus for robust multi-model analyses of climate change on city levels. We analyze changes in heat stress both relative to the climatological heat stress variability in each city during 1981-2010 using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId, Russo et al., 2015) and in absolute terms by counting the yearly number of exceedances of impact-relevant thresholds. Relative and absolute heat stress increase throughout Europe but with distinct patterns. Absolute heat stress increases predominantly in Southern Europe, primarily due to the hotter climate in the South. Relative changes are also highest in Southern Europe but exhibit a secondary maximum in Northern Europe, while being lowest in Central Europe. The main reason for this pattern is that day-to-day variability in heat stress indicators during present climate conditions is highest in Central Europe but lower in Southern and Northern Europe. Large Northern European cities, which are all located at the shore, are further influenced by different heat stress evolutions over land and sea surfaces.</p><p>As human vulnerability does not only depend on the absolute heat stress but also on what people are adapted to (i.e., the climatological range), the results of this study highlight that cities in all parts of Europe – including in Northern Europe – must prepare for higher heat stress in the future.</p><p> </p><p>References:</p><p>Russo, S., et al. (2015). Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades. Environmental Research Letters, 10(12). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003</p><p>Vautard, R., et al. (2020). Evaluation of the large EURO‐CORDEX regional climate model ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. doi:10.1029/2019jd032344</p>

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