Assessment of Climate Change Extremes Over the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Region Using the Hadley Centre PRECIS Regional Climate Model

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

Download Full-text

Impact of climate change on the water resources of the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region: Modeled 21st century changes and implications

Water Resources Research ◽

10.1029/2010wr010269 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (6) ◽

Cited By ~ 102

Author(s):

Jonathan Chenoweth ◽

Panos Hadjinicolaou ◽

Adriana Bruggeman ◽

Jos Lelieveld ◽

Zev Levin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Middle East ◽

21St Century ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

East Region ◽

Middle East Region

Download Full-text

Spatial and temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-1-4425-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 1 (5) ◽

pp. 4425-4444

Author(s):

E. Kostopoulou ◽

C. Giannakopoulos ◽

M. Hatzaki ◽

A. Karali ◽

P. Hadjinicolaou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Area Of Interest ◽

East Region ◽

Middle East Region

Abstract. Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS climate model for the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches 0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, while warming is expected to be strongest in summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the E-Balkans and W-Turkey. The trends in annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and 0.6 °C decade−1. Recent estimates do not indicate statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over the last 30 yr of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the Middle Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming (0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects drying trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days yr−1, while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the high-elevation areas by 15 days yr−1.

Download Full-text

Variations in the Simulation of Climate Change Impact Indices due to Different Land Surface Schemes over the Mediterranean, Middle East and Northern Africa

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10010026 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 26 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Katiana Constantinidou ◽

George Zittis ◽

Panos Hadjinicolaou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

Land Surface ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Climate Model ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Relative Dispersion ◽

Change Impact

The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are projected to be exposed to extreme climatic conditions in the 21st century, which will likely induce adverse impacts in various sectors. Relevant climate change impact assessments utilise data from climate model projections and process-based impact models or simpler, index-based approaches. In this study, we explore the implied uncertainty from variations of climate change impact-related indices as induced by the modelled climate (WRF regional climate model) from different land surface schemes (Noah, NoahMP, CLM and RUC). The three climate change impact-related indicators examined here are the Radiative Index of Dryness (RID), the Fuel Dryness Index (Fd) and the Water-limited Yield (Yw). Our findings indicate that Noah simulates the highest values for both RID and Fd, while CLM gives the highest estimations for winter wheat Yw. The relative dispersion in the three indices derived by the different land schemes is not negligible, amounting, for the overall geographical domain of 25% for RID and Fd, and 10% for Yw. The dispersion is even larger for specific sub-regions.

Download Full-text