System Dynamics Modeling of Households' Electricity Consumption and Cost-Income Ratio: a Case Study of Latvia

Abstract Increased energy efficiency of the building sector is high on the list of priorities for energy policy since better energy efficiency would help to reduce impact on climate change and increase security of energy supply. One aim of the present study was to find a relative effect of growth of demand for energy services due to changes in income, energy consumption per unit of demand due to technological development, changes in electricity price and household income on household electricity consumption in Latvia. The method applied included system dynamics modeling and data from a household survey regarding the relationship between electricity saving activities and the electricity cost-income ratio. The results revealed that, in direct contrast to the expected, a potential reduction of the electricity consumption is rather insensitive to electricity price and electricity cost-income ratio, and that the efficiency of technologies could be the main drivers for future electricity savings. The results suggest that support to advancement of technologies and faster replacement of inefficient ones rather than influencing the energy price could be effective energy policy measures. The model, developed in the study could be used in similar assessments in other countries.

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System Dynamics Modeling of Lighting Electricity Demand in the Urban Residential Sector of Nepal

Journal of Development and Administrative Studies ◽

10.3126/jodas.v23i1-2.15447 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (1-2) ◽

pp. 33-54 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Iswor Bajracharya ◽

Nawraj Bhattarai

Keyword(s):

System Dynamics ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Electricity Demand ◽

Point Of View ◽

Incandescent Lamp ◽

Reference Scenario ◽

System Dynamics Modeling ◽

Dynamics Modeling ◽

Residential Sector ◽

Expansion Planning

A significant portion of the total electricity is consumed in the residential sector of Nepal, mainly for lighting purpose. In this study, a model has been developed using the concept of system dynamics to analyze the dynamics of the changes in the urban residential lighting electricity demand up to the year 2030. A system dynamics modeling tool, Venism, has been used for this purpose. This study is useful for the utilities of companies for the power capacity expansion planning. Altogether three different scenarios have been developed. They are Reference Scenario (Ref), LED Lamp (LL) Scenario and Incandescent Lamp Remove (ILR) Scenario. The study has shown that lighting electricity consumption has already been in the decreasing trend due to the increasing use of Clear Fluorescent Lamp (CFL) and will be the minimum somewhere in the year between 2021 and 2022. Only a small portion of the total electricity will be consumed for lighting the household in the urban residential sector of Nepal in the coming decade. Therefore, government should focus the urban energy efficiency program for other uses of electricity such as cooking, water heating and water pumping etc. so that a significant amount of electricity can be saved in the urban households of Nepal. This study has also shown that there is no difference between the use of CFL and LED lamps from the energy saving point of view. Therefore, like the case of incandescent lamp and CFL, there is no need to encourage the people to buy LED lamp instead of CFL.The Journal of Development and Administrative Studies (JODAS)Vol. 23(1-2), pp. 33-54

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