Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Wave Climate Along the Western Coast of Sri Lanka

AbstractExtreme waves will undergo changes in the future when exposed to different climate change scenarios. These changes are evaluated through the analysis of significant wave height (Hs) return values and are also compared with annual mean Hs projections. Hourly time series are analyzed through a seven-member ensemble of wave climate simulations and changes are estimated in Hs for return periods from 5 to 100 years by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Despite the underlying uncertainty that characterizes extremes, we obtain robust changes in extreme Hs over more than approximately 25% of the ocean surface. The results obtained conclude that increases cover wider areas and are larger in magnitude than decreases for higher return periods. The Southern Ocean is the region where the most robust increase in extreme Hs is projected, showing local increases of over 2 m regardless the analyzed return period under RCP8.5 scenario. On the contrary, the tropical north Pacific shows the most robust decrease in extreme Hs, with local decreases of over 1.5 m. Relevant divergences are found in several ocean regions between the projected behavior of mean and extreme wave conditions. For example, an increase in Hs return values and a decrease in annual mean Hs is found in the SE Indian, NW Atlantic and NE Pacific. Therefore, an extrapolation of the expected change in mean wave conditions to extremes in regions presenting such divergences should be adopted with caution, since it may lead to misinterpretation when used for the design of marine structures or in the evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion.

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The Impacts of Climate Change on the Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ◽

10.1080/07055900.2015.1103697 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 53 (5) ◽

pp. 491-509 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Lanli Guo ◽

Will Perrie ◽

Zhenxia Long ◽

Bash Toulany ◽

Jinyu Sheng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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EXTREME WAVE CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AT THE END OF 21STCENTURY

Asian And Pacific Coasts 2011 ◽

10.1142/9789814366489_0039 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 341-348 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

TOMOYA SHIMURA ◽

NOBUHITO MORI ◽

SOTA NAKAJO ◽

TOMOHRO YASUDA ◽

HAJIME MASE

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Extreme Wave ◽

Climate Change Projection

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Predicted Wave Climate for the UK: Towards an Integrated Model of Coastal Impacts of Climate Change

Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2007) ◽

10.1061/40990(324)24 ◽

2008 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

James Leake ◽

Judith Wolf ◽

Jason Lowe ◽

Peter Stansby ◽

George Jacoub ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Integrated Model ◽

Coastal Impacts ◽

The Uk ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation of Climate Smart Technology by the Tea Smallholders: A Case Study of Ratnapura District in Sri Lanka

Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension Economics & Sociology ◽

10.9734/ajaees/2019/v36i330244 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-18

Author(s):

N. W. M. G. S. Navaratne ◽

W. A. D. P. Wanigasundera ◽

P. C. B. Alahakoon

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sri Lanka ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Smart Technologies ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change impacts such as rainfall variability, rise in ambient temperature, extreme dry spells and excessive wet periods cause low productivity and quality of tea. Ratnapura District in Sri Lanka, having the largest number of tea smallholders, is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and other negative impacts of climate change. This study was conducted to assess the status of climate change using long term meteorological data, to determine the perception of tea smallholders on short term changes in the climate and to assess the level of adaptation of climate-smart technologies by tea smallholders. Four Divisional Secretariat Divisions were selected for the study. Using multistage sampling, a hundred farmers were selected for the social survey. Meteorological data for 42 years was collected from the Department of Agriculture Sri Lanka. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in the analysis. Results showed that there was a significant (p<.05) increasing trend in daily maximum temperature. A slightly increasing trend in consecutive wet days was also observed. The perception of the majority of smallholders about changes in daytime temperature, number of wet days and rainfall distribution was in line with actual changes. Further, the overall level of adaptation to climate-smart technologies was at a moderate level. Shade management practices were at a higher level while moisture conservation practices were at a lower level. It was pivotal to make people aware of the severity of the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods and introduce climate-smart technologies to manage the consequences of extreme weather events.

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WAVE DYNAMICS AND ITS IMPACT TO WAVE CLIMATE PROJECTION

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v33.management.24 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 1 (33) ◽

pp. 24

Author(s):

Tomoya Shimura ◽

Nobuhito Mori ◽

Tomohiro Yasuda ◽

Hajime Mase

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Wave Model ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Wave Statistics ◽

Ipcc Report ◽

Wave Change ◽

Scenario Uncertainty ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Impacts and adaptations of climate change have been studied in various fields. In order to assess the impacts of climate change on coastal areas, it is necessary to evaluate how wave change due to climate changes. Projections of global wave climate have been carried out by some research groups for next IPCC report. Projection of wave climate contains uncertainties, such as scenario uncertainty, GCM uncertainty and wave model uncertainty. Impacts and adaptations of climate change have been studied in various fields. In order to assess the impacts of climate change on coastal areas, it is necessary to evaluate how wave change due to the climate changes. Projections of global wave climate have been carried out by some research groups for next IPCC report. Projection of wave climate contains uncertainties, such as scenario uncertainty, GCM uncertainty and wave model uncertainty. The uncertainties need to be estimated for reliable projections. In this study, wave model uncertainty was evaluated. Global wave hindcasts were conducted using SWAN with four different models of source terms and the impacts of different wave models on global long-term wave statistics were made clear. Furthermore, the global characteristics of differences in long-term wave statistics due to different models were compared with the result of global wave climate projection (Mori et al., 2010). Global long-term wave statistics are varied depending on choice of formula of Sin and Swc rather than that of Snl4. The uncertainty is larger in eastern lower latitude of ocean especially in the Pacific where swells dominate. On the other hand, the uncertainty of future wave climate change due to wave model is negligibly small in higher latitude where wind-waves dominate.

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VULNERABILITY OF A RIVER DELTA COAST TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36v.management.30 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 30

Author(s):

Cihan Sahin ◽

Mehmet Ozturk ◽

Ahmet Altunsu ◽

H. Anil Ari Guner ◽

Yalcin Yuksel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Wave Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Sediment Runoff ◽

Physical Processes ◽

Coastal Morphology ◽

Sakarya River ◽

Storm Frequency ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The main drivers of coastal morphology evolution related to climate change are wave characteristics, storm frequency/intensity and watershed runoff. Estuaries and deltaic plains, strongly affected by the sea-level change, are highly vulnerable to future climate change impacts. Karasu Beach, located in the southwestern Black Sea, Turkey, is impacted by the Sakarya River plume. River discharge and energetic wind and wave climate are among the major physical processes that control the sediment transport pattern along the shoreline. Due to the decrease of sediment runoff to the coast related to the construction reservoirs and a harbor, significant erosion occurred, with a 7.5 m/year retreat of the coastal line. The erosion problem threatens the coastal area as well as the deep spot.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/DfYQlbOXEh8

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