scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market and Gold Returns in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 29-46
Author(s):  
Sarika MAHAJAN ◽  
◽  
Priya MAHAJAN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
Asymmetric Garch ◽  
The Impact

The spread of COVID-19 has caused severe damage to human lives and the global economy. The stock markets around the world have plummeted to their lowest levels since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This paper attempts to examine the joint dynamics of gold and stock market returns during unprecedented times of health and financial shock due to COVID-19 between January 2020 and May 2020 using granger test, ARMA model, and symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models to improve the understanding of the microstructure of investment scenario in India. The period considered in the study helps to evaluate the impact of lockdown due to coronavirus on Gold and Nifty index return. Results based on GARCH and E-GARCH models indicate a significant negative impact of gold on nifty returns during the sample period. The results also indicate investors' perception of gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of elevated uncertainty. Thus, the study is expected to enhance the understanding of market asymmetry, the behavior of investors towards these avenues of investments, and information processing.

scholarly journals INVESTIGATING ABNORMAL VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION PATTERNS BETWEEN EMERGING AND DEVELOPED STOCK MARKETS: A CASE STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1561-1592
Author(s):  
Cristi Spulbar ◽  
Jatin Trivedi ◽  
Ramona Birau
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Asymmetric Garch ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
The Impact

The main aim of this paper is to investigate volatility spillover effects, the impact of past volatility on present market movements, the reaction to positive and negative news, among selected financial markets. The sample stock markets are geographically dispersed on different continents, respectively North America, Europe and Asia. We also investigate whether selected emerging stock markets capture the volatility patterns of developed stock markets located in the same region. The empirical analysis is focused on seven developed stock market indices, i.e. IBEX35 (Spain), DJIA (USA), FTSE100 (UK), TSX Composite (Canada), NIKKEI225 (Japan), DAX (Germany), CAC40 (France) and five emerging stock market indices, i.e. BET (Romania), WIG20 (Poland), BSE (India), SSE Composite (China) and BUX (Hungary) from January 2000 to June 2018. The econometric framework includes symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models i.e. EGARCH and GJR which are performed in order to capture asymmetric volatility clustering, interdependence, correlations, financial integration and leptokurtosis. Symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models revealed that all selected financial markets are highly volatile, including the presence of leverage effect. The stock markets in Hungary, USA, Germany, India and Canada exhibit high positive volatility after global financial crisis.

COVID -19 and Indian Financial Markets: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Kamaldeep Kaur Sarna
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 is aptly stated as a Black Swan event that has stifled the global economy. As coronavirus wreaked havoc, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted globally, unemployment rate soared high, and economic recovery still seems a far-fetched dream. Most importantly, the pandemic has set up turbulence in the global financial markets and resulted in heightened risk elements (market risk, credit risk, bank runs etc.) across the globe. Such uncertainty and volatility has not been witnessed since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. The spread of COVID-19 has largely eroded investors’ confidence as the stock markets neared lifetimes lows, bad loans spiked and investment values degraded. Due to this, many turned their backs on the risk-reward trade off and carted their money towards traditionally safer investments like gold. While the banking sector remains particularly vulnerable, central banks have provided extensive loan moratoriums and interest waivers. Overall, COVID-19 resulted in a short term negative impact on the financial markets in India, though it is making a way towards V-shaped recovery. In this context, the present paper attempts to identify and evaluate the impact of the pandemic on the financial markets in India. Relying on rich literature and live illustrations, the influence of COVID-19 is studied on the stock markets, banking and financial institutions, private equities, and debt funds. The paper covers several recommendations so as to bring stability in the financial markets. The suggestions include, but are not limited to, methods to regularly monitor results, establishing a robust mechanism for risk management, strategies to reduce Non-Performing Assets, continuous assessment of stress and crisis readiness of the financial institutions etc. The paper also emphasizes on enhancing the role of technology (Artificial Intelligence and Virtual/Augmented Reality) in the financial services sector to optimize the outcomes and set the path towards recovery.

scholarly journals Stock market liquidity, the great lockdown and the COVID-19 global pandemic nexus in MENA countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anas Alaoui Mdaghri ◽  
Abdessamad Raghibi ◽  
Cuong Nguyen Thanh ◽  
Lahsen Oubdi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Stock Market Liquidity ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on stock market liquidity, while taking into account the depth and tightness dimensions.Design/methodology/approachThe author used a panel data regression on stock market dataset, representing 314 listed firms operating in six Middle East and North African (MENA) countries from February to May 2020.FindingsThe regression results on the overall sample indicate that the liquidity related to the depth measure was positively correlated with the growth in the confirmed number of cases and deaths and stringency index. Moreover, the market depth was positively related to the confirmed cases of COVID-19. The results also indicate that the liquidity of small cap and big cap firms was significantly impacted by the confirmed number of cases, while the stringency index is only significant for the liquidity depth measure. Moreover, the results regarding sectors and country level analysis confirmed that COVID-19 had a significant and negative impact of stock market liquidity.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper confirms that the global coronavirus pandemic has decreased the stock market liquidity in terms of both the depth and the tightness dimensions.Originality/valueWhile most empirical papers focused on the impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic on stock market returns, this paper investigated liquidity chock at firm level in the MENA region using both tightness and depth dimensions.

scholarly journals Are Investors’ Attention and Uncertainty Aversion the Risk Factors for Stock Markets? International Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
Falik Shear ◽  
Badar Nadeem Ashraf ◽  
Mohsin Sadaqat
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
National Culture ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Uncertainty Avoidance ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Google Search ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we examine the impact of investors’ attention to COVID-19 on stock market returns and the moderating effect of national culture on this relationship. Using daily data from 34 countries over the period 23 January to 12 June 2020, and measuring investors’ attention with the Google search volume (GSV) of the word “coronavirus” for each country, we find that investors’ enhanced attention to the COVID-19 pandemic results in negative stock market returns. Further, measuring the national culture with the uncertainty avoidance index (the aspect of national culture which measures the cross-country differences in decision-making under stress and ambiguity), we find that the negative impact of investors’ attention on stock market returns is stronger in countries where investors possess higher uncertainty avoidance cultural values. Our findings imply that uncertainty avoidance cultural values of investors promote financial market instability amid the crisis.

scholarly journals A cause and effect relationship between FIIs, DIIs and stock market returns in India: pre- and post-demonetization analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Parab ◽  
Y. V. Reddy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Institutional Investment ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In one of the most historic decisions in the Indian economy, the Government of India demonetized its two highest currency notes (Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000) on November 8, 2016. The Indian stock market does not only consist of domestic investors; however, it does attract a large pool of foreign investors. The present study, considering the significance of demonetization in Indian economy, attempted to examine the association between foreign institutional investment (FII), domestic institutional investment (DII) and stock market returns taking into account a period of 686 days from June 11, 2015, to March 27, 2018, i.e., 343 days pre- and post-demonetization. The study made use of various statistical techniques such as summary statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation analysis and regression analysis. The results indicate a negative relationship of FIIs and DIIs with Nifty 50 Index Returns prior to demonetization; however, such a relationship was noticed to be positive post-demonetization. The present study did not evidence a significant impact of demonetization on FIIs and DIIs, but a significant negative impact was noticed in the case of Nifty 50 Index and various sectoral indices post-demonetization. Nifty Realty sector was found to be severely affected because of demonetization. The study will help the government in understanding the impact of demonetization on foreign and domestic institutional investors, various sectoral indices and evaluate market sentiment post-demonetization and therefore frame necessary policies. Also, the information provided in present study will help various stock market participants.

scholarly journals Non-Linear Interdependencies between International Stock Markets: The Polish and Spanish Case

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Francisco Jareño ◽  
Ana Escribano ◽  
Monika W. Koczar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

This research analyzes non-linear interdependencies between the Polish (WIG20) and the Spanish (IBEX 35) stock market returns with some other relevant international stock market returns, such as the German (DAX-30), the British (FTSE-100), the American (S&P 500) and the Chinese (SSE Composite) stock markets. In addition, this research focuses on the impact of the stage of the economy on these interdependencies, in concrete, on the influence of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. To that end, we use a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach in the sample period between January 1998 to December 2018. Our results show positive interdependencies between the Polish and the Spanish stock markets with the international reference stock markets analyzed in this research, as well as significant long-run relations between most of the stock markets. Furthermore, the Polish and the Spanish stock market returns may similarly react to positive and negative changes in international stock market returns, evidencing strong short-run asymmetry. In addition, both countries show great persistence in response to both positive and negative changes in stock market returns in the other mayor international markets. Finally, the NARDL model proposed in this research would show good explanatory power, mainly to changes in the international stock market returns, except for the Chinese market.

Convergence of Returns on Chinese and Russian Stock Markets with World Markets: National and Sectoral Perspectives

2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. R16-R34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Babecký ◽  
Luboš Komárek ◽  
Zlatuše Komárková
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
World Markets ◽  
The Impact

Interest in examining the financial linkages of economies has increased in the wake of the 2008/9 global financial crisis. Applying the concepts of beta- and sigma-convergence of stock market returns, we assess changes over time in the degree of stock market integration of Russia and China with each other, as well as with respect to the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan. Our analysis is based on national and sectoral data spanning the period September 1995 to October 2010. Overall, we find evidence for gradually increasing convergence of stock market returns after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Following a major disruption caused by the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the process of stock market return convergence resumes between Russia and China, as well as with world markets. Notably, the episode of sigma-divergence from the 2008/9 crisis is stronger for China than for Russia. We also find that the process of stock market return convergence and the impact of the recent crisis have not been uniform at the sectoral level, suggesting the potential for diversification of risk across sectors.

scholarly journals GARCH (1,1) Models and Analysis of Stock Market Turmoil during COVID-19 Outbreak in an Emerging and Developed Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 576
Author(s):  
Budi Setiawan ◽  
Marwa Ben Abdallah ◽  
Maria Fekete-Farkas ◽  
Robert Jeyakumar Nathan ◽  
Zoltan Zeman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 pandemic has led to uncertainties in the financial markets around the globe. The pandemic has caused volatilities in the financial market at varying magnitudes, in the emerging versus developed economy. To examine this phenomenon, this study investigates the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatility in an emerging economy, i.e., Indonesia, versus developed country, i.e., Hungary, using an event-study approach methodology utilizing GARCH (1,1) model. In this study, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and the b (BUX) data were obtained from Investing and Bloomberg, covering two global events observed within the selected period from 27 September 2006 to 31 August 2021. The data is compared with the stock market volatility data from the global financial crisis in 2007/08. Findings reveal that the recent COVID-19 pandemic had negative stock market returns at a greater magnitude compared to the global financial crisis, in both the emerging and developed economy’s equity market. Stock markets in Indonesia and Hungary have experienced volatility during the crisis. While comparing the result between COVID-19 and the global financial crisis, we found that the volatility on the stock markets is higher in the COVID-19 pandemic than during the global financial crisis. The higher stock market negative returns and volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the lockdown and limited economic activities, which impacted supply and demand shock. The virus’s propagation and mutation are continually evolving, reminding us that the pandemic is far from over. Developed countries with larger fiscal space seem to find it easier to make responsive policies than countries with a tighter financial budget. Fiscal and monetary policies seem to be a quick solution to stabilize the economy and maintain investor confidence in the Indonesian and Hungarian capital markets. Furthermore, the extension of stock market volatility understanding ensures relevant information for investors, which benefits to mitigate the risk and build sustainable investments of the unprecedented events and enables the promotion of Sustainable Development Goal number 8 (SDG8) to communities, with access to financial products including the stock market, especially during economic and financial uncertainties.

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