scholarly journals Central bank transparency and exchange rate volatility effects on inflation-output volatility

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Stephanos Papadamou ◽  
Moïse Sidiropoulos ◽  
Eleftherios Spyromitros
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
The Exchange Rate

While the tendency towards more transparent central banks is irrefutable, the effects of more transparent monetary policies mainly on output volatility are not clear-cut. In this note, we estimate our panel for 36 countries over the period 1998-2005 which is characterized by significant changes in central bank transparency levels, using the Prais-Winsten method with PCSEs and controlling for the exchange rate volatility that positively affects inflation and output. We provide evidence in favor of transparency and exchange rate stability policies since they reduce both output and inflation volatility.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY RULES IN MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE AND THAILAND

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 565-596
Author(s):  
Chai-Thing Tan ◽  
Azali Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Reaction Function

This paper investigates whether monetary policies in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are best represented by either the Taylor rule or the augmented Taylor rule. It finds that the augmented Taylor rule, which incorporates the exchange rate and government spending, best represents monetary policies in these countries. The results show that past inflation and the output gap play a role in the monetary policy reaction function in Malaysia and Thailand. The results further show a strong preference towards interest rate smoothing, government spending, and the exchange rate by the central banks.

Does the Information Content of Central Bank Speeches Impact on the Level of Exchange Rate? A Comparative Study of Canadian and Australian Central Bank Communications

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Becksndale Masawi ◽  
Sukanto Bhattacharya ◽  
Terry Boulter
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Traditionally, central banks have used direct intervention in currency markets when the exchange rate has moved away from equilibrium or when the volatility has been excessive and the literature on the effects of indirect intervention is sparse. We examine whether indirect intervention has any impact on the exchange rate levels by examining the central bank verbal communications in Australia and Canada. We find evidence that the Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) speeches reduce the mean exchange rate returns but not the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) speeches. Our results show that the socio-economic similarities between countries do not guarantee a similar impact of indirect intervention.

scholarly journals O que motiva a realização de intervenções cambiais? Análise das atuações do Banco Central do Brasil no mercado BRL/USD

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Felipe Wolk Teixeira ◽  
Roberto Meurer ◽  
André Alves Portela Santos
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Band

In this paper we study what drives buy-side and sell-side probabilities of intervention by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) on the USD/BRL spot market between 1999 and 2010. BCB’s forex interventions seem to be related to the exchange rate returns and volatility as well as to the spread between domestic and foreign interest rates. Lagged interventions also appear to have an effect on current interventions. Our findings suggest that the operation of the policymaker in the forex market may serve as a signaling of a possible coordination between BCB’s foreign and monetary policies along with the possibility of an unofficial adoption of an exchange rate band.

scholarly journals The Exchange Rate Volatility in Indonesia and Policy Response

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferry Syarifuddin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

High fluctuation of exchange rate in short horizon is obviously making economic activity more risky as uncertainty rises. Moreover, volatile exchange rates also make commodity prices, interest rates and a host of other variables more volatile as well. Although changes in long-run exchange rates tend to undergo relatively gradual shifts, in the shorter horizon, the exchange rate might be very volatile. Then there should be a systematic and measured policy to mitigate the foreign exchange fluctuations and to minimize the fluctuations as well as to drive it to its fundamental value. In this part, USD/IDR volatility is investigated using GARCH approach. The results reveal that, USD/IDR volatility in Indonesia is persistent. On the other hand, the following studies also present the outcomes of effectiveness of policy response by the Central Bank. Foreign-exchange sale interventions by the Central Bank lead conditional volatility of the USD/IDR to decrease slightly.

Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets:The Chilean Case

2007 ◽  
pp. 87-100
Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The document conducts an empirical investigation on the volatility of the Chilean exchange rate regime, using a model of Objective Zones. Through the use of the ARCH model, the document tests the volatility of the exchange rate in the presence of different levels of international reserves and other macroeconomic shocks. The results show that domestic credit, domestic debt and external debt have the greatest impact on the volatility of the variables studied, especially when compared with other fundamental variables. The variance of the exchange rate is heterosedastic but it is not persistent, which implies that the exchange rate is stable, probably when it oscillates between two bands. The volatility of the exchange rate fluctuates to a greater extent in the face of changes in internal and external debt, than with the other variables used.

Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatility on the Romanian Exports to the Euro Area

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona Dumitriu ◽  
Razvan Stefanescu ◽  
Costel Nistor
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

scholarly journals What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 705-719
Author(s):  
Gen-Fu Feng ◽  
Hao-Chang Yang ◽  
Qiang Gong ◽  
Chun-Ping Chang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
The Exchange Rate
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