scholarly journals WAVELET ANALYSIS OF THE El NIÑO - LA NIÑA PHENOMENON DYNAMICS AND ITS FORECASTING

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 75-87
Author(s):  
V I Alekseev
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Frequency Content ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Instantaneous Phase ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Phase Differences

Having calculated the frequency content of a solar constant, solar activity from the time series in (1610-2012), the El Niño curve in both (1470-1984) and (1950-2075), it has been found that the frequency content of an El Niño - La Niña curve is induced by frequency contents of solar variables. The frequency contents of the variables have been calculated by developing their wavelet phase-frequency responses. Instantaneous phase differences of the solar variables curves CO2(t), global surface air temperature, El Niño in the two time intervals, in (1891-1950) and (1950-2009), have been calculated; linear approximations with coefficients of instantaneous phase differences between variables in these time intervals have been obtained. Based on relational approximation coefficient analysis of the two time intervals, it has been identified that rising surface air temperature and El Niño alike had been markedly influenced by solar variables variations during the first time interval, with the El Niño rise being affected by that of the surface air temperature amid the global climate change in 1950-2009. The predicted El Niño curves have been obtained from the 2015/16 to 2050 time period by the trained data curve in 1950-2015/16 in two versions as the sum of predicted wavelet approximating and detailing components of the original signal according to the Mallat rule. The accuracy of the predictive El Niño curve values is » 83%. On the obtained curves, coordinates of local maximum and minimum are nearly matching. Wavelet phase-frequency response imaging of one curve reflects an impact on El Niño - La Niña variations of the Earth's solar and climatic variables in the past and the future alike.

scholarly journals Percolation Phase Transition of Surface Air Temperature Networks: A new test bed for El Niño/La Niña simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijuan Hua ◽  
Zhenghui Lu ◽  
Naiming Yuan ◽  
Lin Chen ◽  
Yongqiang Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase Transition ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
La Nina

Testing of the Tropically Excited Arctic Warming Mechanism (TEAM) with Traditional El Niño and La Niña

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 4015-4022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
La Nina

Abstract By analyzing El Niño and La Niña composites with 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data, evidence is presented here that the surface air temperature of the Arctic winter (December–February) is anomalously warm during La Niña and cold during El Niño. Surface and top-of-the-atmosphere energy fluxes were used to calculate the composite zonal-mean poleward moist static energy transport. The result shows that the La Niña warming in the Arctic is associated with an increased poleward energy transport in the extratropics. The opposite characteristics are found for El Niño. Because the total tropical convective heating is more localized during La Niña than El Niño, these findings suggest that the Arctic surface air temperature anomalies associated with ENSO may be attributed to the tropically excited Arctic warming mechanism (TEAM). In the tropics, consistent with previous studies, the anomalous poleward energy transport is positive during El Niño and negative during La Niña. Given the debate over whether a warmer world would take on more El Niño–like or La Niña–like characteristics, the findings of this study underscore the need for further investigation of tropical influence on polar climate.

scholarly journals Network analysis reveals strongly localized impacts of El Niño

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (29) ◽  
pp. 7543-7548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingfang Fan ◽  
Jun Meng ◽  
Yosef Ashkenazy ◽  
Shlomo Havlin ◽  
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Global Impacts

Climatic conditions influence the culture and economy of societies and the performance of economies. Specifically, El Niño as an extreme climate event is known to have notable effects on health, agriculture, industry, and conflict. Here, we construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near-surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that regions that are characterized by higher positive/negative network “in”-weighted links are exhibiting stronger correlations with the El Niño basin and are warmer/cooler during El Niño/La Niña periods. In contrast to non-El Niño periods, these stronger in-weighted activities are found to be concentrated in very localized areas, whereas a large fraction of the globe is not influenced by the events. The regions of localized activity vary from one El Niño (La Niña) event to another; still, some El Niño (La Niña) events are more similar to each other. We quantify this similarity using network community structure. The results and methodology reported here may be used to improve the understanding and prediction of El Niño/La Niña events and also may be applied in the investigation of other climate variables.

Quantifying the Non-Gaussianity of Wintertime Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Southeast

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 838-850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lydia Stefanova ◽  
Philip Sura ◽  
Melissa Griffin
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract In this paper the statistics of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature at weather stations in the southeast United States are examined as a function of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase. A limited number of studies address how the ENSO and/or AO affect U.S. daily—as opposed to monthly or seasonal—temperature averages. The details of the effect of the ENSO or AO on the higher-order statistics for wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures have not been clearly documented. Quality-controlled daily observations collected from 1960 to 2009 from 272 National Weather Service Cooperative Observing Network stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina are used to calculate the first four statistical moments of minimum and maximum daily temperature distributions. It is found that, over the U.S. Southeast, winter minimum temperatures have higher variability than maximum temperatures and La Niña winters have greater variability of both minimum and maximum temperatures. With the exception of the Florida peninsula, minimum temperatures are positively skewed, while maximum temperatures are negatively skewed. Stations in peninsular Florida exhibit negative skewness for both maximum and minimum temperatures. During the relatively warmer winters associated with either a La Niña or AO+, negative skewnesses are exacerbated and positive skewnesses are reduced. To a lesser extent, the converse is true of the El Niño and AO−. The ENSO and AO are also shown to have a statistically significant effect on the change in kurtosis of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain.

scholarly journals Climatologia Urbana da Cidade de Belém-Pará, através das Precipitações e Temperaturas do Ar, das Normais Climatológicas de 1941 a 1970, 1971 a 2000 e da Normal Provisória de 2001 a 2015 (Urban Climatology of the City of Belem-Pará-Brazil, throughout...)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 803
Author(s):  
Maria do Carmo Felipe de Oliveira ◽  
José Augusto De Souza Júnior ◽  
Patrícia Porta Nova da Cruz ◽  
José Danilo Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Urban Climatology ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Weather Events

Este trabalho teve como objetivo estudar a climatologia urbana de Belém-PA, tendo como base as precipitações e as temperaturas do ar, através da comparação entre as Normais Climatológicas de 1941-1970, 1971-2000 e a Normal Provisória de 2001-2015, buscando quantificar possíveis alterações climáticas e identificar a influência de eventos climáticos, de EL Niño e LA Niña, o que certamente contribuirá para um melhor planejamento urbano, visando na melhoria de qualidade de vida do homem. Foram utilizados os dados das precipitações e temperaturas do ar, fornecidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia– INMET, e foram calculados parâmetros estatísticos e as anomalias anuais para identificar a variabilidade nos dados e a influência dos eventos extremos. Os resultados mostraram que, o regime médio mensal da precipitação pluviométrica e das temperaturas do ar, para as Normais, apresenta dois períodos distintos, um mais chuvoso e menos quente, de Janeiro a Maio e um menos chuvoso e mais quente, de Junho a Dezembro. Os totais médios mensais e anuais mostraram aumentos nas chuvas e nos valores de temperaturas do ar, quando comparados entre as Normais, porém, com alternância entre períodos de aumento gradual, com seqüência de queda. As anomalias mostraram a influência dos eventos climáticos extremos, na climatologia da região, tanto no regime pluviométrico, quanto no regime térmico, com redução e/ou aumento nos valores calculados, provocando secas severas e temperaturas mais elevadas, em anos de EL Niño e gerando grandes enchentes com transbordamento de rios e redução nos valores das temperaturas do ar em anos da La Niña.  A B S T R A C T This work aimed to study the urban climatology of Belém-Pará-Brazil, based on precipitation and air temperatures, by comparing the Climatological Standards of 1941-1970, 1971-2000 and provisional standard of 2001-2015, seeking quantify potential climate change and identify the influence of weather events, like El Niño and La Niña events, which will certainly contribute to a better urban planning in order to improve man's quality of life. Precipitation and air temperatures data were used in the research, provided by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), and were calculated statistical parameters and annual anomalies to identify the variability in the data and the influence of extreme events. The results showed that the monthly average pattern of rainfall and air temperatures, for the Climatological Standards, demonstrate two distinct periods, one rainier and less hot, from January to May and a less rainy and warmer, from June to December. Annual and monthly average totals demonstrated increases in rainfall and in air temperature values, when compared between the Standards, however, with alternating periods of gradual increase, with decrease sequence. Anomalies showed the influence of extreme weather events, in the climatology of the region, both in rainfall as thermal patterns, with reduction and/or increase in the calculated values, causing severe drought and higher air temperatures in years of El Niño and causing large floods with overflowing in rivers and reduced values ​​of air temperatures in the La Niña years. Keywords: Precipitation; Air temperature; Climatological Standard and provisional; Extreme climate events; Belém-Pará-Brazil.   

scholarly journals Relationship between the 1997/98 El Niño and 1999/2001 La Niña events and oil palm tree production in Tumaco, Southwestern Colombia

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 195-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Cadena ◽  
A. Devis-Morales ◽  
J. D. Pabón ◽  
I. Málikov ◽  
J. A. Reyna-Moreno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Palm Tree ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Although the relationship between ENSO events and oceanographic and meteorological conditions of Southwestern Colombia is well-known, very little work has been done to assess the related socio-economic impacts. This is the first effort made to determine the effect of such events on local climate and the impact of this variability on oil palm tree (Elaeis guineensis) production in the Tumaco municipality, which is located on Colombia's Pacific coast. First, we studied the correlation between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the various El Niño regions and those observed off Tumaco. Next, we scrutinized the ENSO impact on regional climatic indicators, e.g. active solar radiation (hrs/day), air temperature (°C), and rain (mm). Finally, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO, Tumaco climate variability, and oil palm production (tons/hectare-month). Hours of active radiation increased (decreased) under El Niño (La Niña) conditions, as did average monthly precipitation rates and air temperature. ENSO-related climatic variability also had an important effect on the different developmental stages of the oil palm tree, thereby affecting its production. The worst scenario was found during La Niña, when reduced intensity of the rainy season (second semester) caused severe droughts in the region.

scholarly journals Temperature Surface of Guaíba Lake, RS, from time series of MODIS images

RBRH ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenio Antonio da Luz ◽  
Laurindo Antonio Guasselli ◽  
Daniela Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

ABSTRACT The Guaíba lake is located in an area of complex weather variation and is influenced by many atmospheric circulation systems, bringing about violent occluded fronts, and, sometimes, intense precipitation. In Rio Grande do Sul, during El Niño, air temperatures and the precipitation index are higher, contrary to La Niña. Moreover, the Guaíba Lake receives water from the Guaíba's Hydrographical Region, which corresponds to 1/3 of Rio Grande do Sul State, and is thus an important water body to the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre. Methods that seek to understand the behavior of Guaíba lake surface water temperature (LSWT) may lead to relevant information to identify periods of more or less water warming, as well as the relations between LSWT, water quality deterioration and risks to human health. This paper aims to comprehend the behavior of Guaíba LSWT during periods of climatic anomalies (El Niño/La Niña). Therefore, 418 sea surface temperature (SST) images from the MODIS sensor were processed with SeaDas 7.2 software. The quarterly averages of LSWT were obtained and compared to the climatological anomalies in Equatorial Pacific Ocean. LSWT behavior is more complex in El Niño/La Niña periods. The results show that during climatic abnormality periods there are no direct relationship between the warming/cooling of Guaíba LSWT and the warming/cooling of Equatorial Pacific Ocean’s SST. The precipitation indices were more significant to the behavior of LSWT during El Niño periods, but for all periods (of climatic normality and abnormality), air temperature is what most influences LSWT. This relation occurs with climatic factors of water retention time, water entry and precipitation, and air temperature. There is a major correspondence during La Niña periods with the cooling of Guaíba LSWT only for some years. On the other hand, during El Niño periods there are no correspondences of this phenomenon with the warming of Guaíba LSWT. There are only more intense oscillations in surface temperatures than during regular and La Niña periods, but with a tendency to LSWT warming.

ANALISIS DAERAH RAWAN KEKERINGAN LAHAN JAGUNG BERDASARKAN IKLIM OLDEMAN DAN KETERSEDIAN AIR TANAH DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR SAAT PERIODE EL NINO DAN LA NINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.

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