Technical Report: Monitoring and Communicating Changes in Disturbance Regimes (Version 1.0)
Shifts in disturbance patterns across the Northeast are of increasing concern as the climate continues to change. In particular, changes in patterns of frequency, severity and extent of disturbance event may have detrimental cascading impacts on forest ecosystems and human communities. To explore how changing disturbance regimes might impact future forest health and management it is necessary to understand the historical trends and impacts of disturbance in the region. Although individual types of disturbance have already been analyzed, there is a need for a consolidated overview of the current state of disturbance in northeastern forests. To address this need, the Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative (FEMC) developed the FEMC: Tracking Shifts in Disturbance Regimes web portal for users to explore changes over time of key disturbance drivers, identify important disturbance responses, and discover where monitoring is happening for both drivers and responses. In collaboration with our advisory committee, we identified key disturbance drivers—flood, high winds, fire, drought, pests—and responses—macroinvertebrates, cold-water fisheries, invasive plants—that are of particular concern in the region. For each of the drivers we identified a suitable regional dataset and analyzed changes over time in frequency, severity, and extent. We also created a structured framework to catalogue programs across the region that are monitoring for these disturbance drivers and responses. Version 1.0 of the FEMC: Tracking Shifts in Disturbance Regimes (https://uvm.edu/femc/disturbance) web portal, first released in October 2021, contains 272 data programs, 11 drivers and three responses. Through the web portal users can browse programs by state, driver type or response type, and explore where monitoring is happening across the region. Driver-specific analyses allow users to quickly see the trends in severity, frequency and extent of selected disturbances and compare the impacts in selected states to regional data. We hope that this collection of programs and the analysis of trends provide researchers and land managers with an easy way to understand the current state of disturbance in northeastern forests that enables them to analyze and plan for future impacts.