scholarly journals Forecasting Analysis of Share Price Index in Construction Companies Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-63
Author(s):  
Karnila Ali
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Average Method ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

Stock is one of the investment instruments that many investors choose, both short and long term. Meanwhile, the stock price index is an essential indicator for investors deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This study aims to determine what methods are suitable for predicting the Stock Price Index of Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. By selecting a model that matches the existing time series data, to evaluate the results of the forecasting, the researcher uses a measure of accuracy with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). This type of research is a quantitative study with a research population of 16 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Only four samples were used that fit the specified criteria, and only five years of research were conducted, namely in 2015 to 2019. data can be seen from historical data or actual data and tested using Minitab software version 19. The results showed that Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's) and Double Moving Average Method could be used to forecast the Construction Company Stock Price Index. Obtaining the smallest error value of the four construction companies, namely WSKT company with MAPE = 7.3, MAD = 148.8, and MSD = 40506.0 for the Holt'sand MAPE method = 5.3, MAD = 110.1, and MSD = 22006.9 for the Double Moving Average method.

scholarly journals Effect of Composite Stock Price Index, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Share Price of Mining Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imaduddin Murdifin ◽  
Suriyanti Andi Mangkona
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aimed to examine the effect of Composite Stock Price Index (Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)), the exchange rate, and interest rates on stock prices of mining companies listed in Indonesia stock Exchange. This research is associative with quantitative approach. Data were analyzed using panel data regression. The data used is secondary data such as financial data, and the percentage of monthly interest rates over the last three years. The collection of data taken with documentation techniques derived from published reports of Bank Indonesia and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling was done by purposive sampling with the number nine companies. The results showed that the CSPI and interest rates but not significant positive effect on stock prices. The rupiah exchange rate and significant negative effect on stock prices. Simultaneously the composite stock price index, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

scholarly journals ARIMA Model Selection for Composite Stock Price Index in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. p31
Author(s):  
Zul Amry ◽  
Budi Halomoan Siregar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Stock Price Index

Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) can be used as a reflection of the national economic condition of a country because it is an indicator to know the development the capital market in a country. Therefore, the movement in the future needs to be forecast. This study aims to build a model for the time series forecasting of Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) using the ARIMA model. The data used is the monthly data of ICI in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from January 2000 until December 2017 as many as 216 data. The method used in this research is the Box-Jenkins method. The autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) are used for stationary test and model identification. The maximum estimated likelihood is used to estimate the parameter model. In addition, to select a model then used Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Ljung-Box Q statistics are used for diagnostic tests. In addition, to show the accuracy of the model, we use Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the most appropriate model is ARIMA (0, 1, 1).

scholarly journals Effect of Composite Stock Price Index, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Share Price of Mining Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Imaduddin Murdifin ◽  
Suriyanti Andi Mangkona
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

<p>This study aimed to examine the effect of Composite Stock Price Index (Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)), the exchange rate, and interest rates on stock prices of mining companies listed in Indonesia stock Exchange. This research is associative with quantitative approach. Data were analyzed using panel data regression. The data used is secondary data such as financial data, and the percentage of monthly interest rates over the last three years. The collection of data taken with documentation techniques derived from published reports of Bank Indonesia and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling was done by purposive sampling with the number nine companies.  The results showed that the CSPI and interest rates but not significant positive effect on stock prices. The rupiah exchange rate and significant negative effect on stock prices. Simultaneously the composite stock price index, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. </p>

scholarly journals Analysis The Effect of Trading Volume Activity and External Factors to Composite Stock Price Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-214
Author(s):  
Mega Barokatul Fajri ◽  
Wihandaru Wihandaru ◽  
Adi Lukman Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Volume Activity ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Stock Price Index

This research as a purpose to analyze the effect of trading volume activity and external factors such as exchange rates, BI Rate to composite stock price index listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The object of this research is on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bank Indonesia. In this study, the data used were time-series data and the sampling method used was purposive sampling. The method of analysis used in this study is multiple regression models. Based on the analysis that has been done, it is known that the trading volume activity and BI Rate has no effect on the composite stock price index, while the exchange rate has a negative effect on the composite stock price index.

scholarly journals PEMODELAN DAN PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) MENGGUNAKAN ARIMAX-TARCH

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-604
Author(s):  
Endah Fauziyah ◽  
Dwi Ispriyanti ◽  
Tarno Tarno
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
A Value ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Stock Price Index

The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is a value that describes the combined performance of all shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. JCI serves as a benchmark for investors in investing. The method used to predict future conditions based on past data is forecasting . Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) is amodel time series that can be used for forecasting. Financial data has high volatility which causes the variance of the residual model which is not constant (heteroscedasticity). ARCH / GARCH model is used to solve the heteroscedasticity problem in the model. If the data is heteroscedastic and asymmetric, then the model can be used Threshold Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TARCH). The data used are the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) for the January 2000 - April 2020 period and the dollar exchange rate data for the January 2000 - April 2020 period asvariables independent from the ARIMAX model. The best model used to predict the JCI from the results of this study is the ARIMAX (1,1,0) -TARCH (1,2) model with an AIC value of -0.819074. 

scholarly journals Effect of Composite Stock Price Index, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Share Price of Mining Companies Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imaduddin Murdifin ◽  
Suriyanti Andi Mangkona
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aimed to examine the effect of Composite Stock Price Index (Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)), the exchange rate, and interest rates on stock prices of mining companies listed in Indonesia stock Exchange. This research is associative with quantitative approach. Data were analyzed using panel data regression. The data used is secondary data such as financial data, and the percentage of monthly interest rates over the last three years. The collection of data taken with documentation techniques derived from published reports of Bank Indonesia and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling was done by purposive sampling with the number nine companies. The results showed that the CSPI and interest rates but not significant positive effect on stock prices. The rupiah exchange rate and significant negative effect on stock prices. Simultaneously the composite stock price index, the rupiah exchange rate, and interest rates have a significant effect on stock prices of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR PENENTU INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Yulizar Fikri ◽  
Ali Anis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the analysis of the determinants of the composite stock price index in Indonesia. The independent variables in this study are inflation as X1, foreign exchange reserves as X2, exchange rates as X3, and economic growth as X4, and the dependent variable of the composite stock price index as Y. The data used are secondary data in the formof time series data from 2010Q1 until 2019Q2, with data collection techniques, namely documentation from Bank Indonesia publications, the Central Statistics Agency, investing. comsite and library research. The research methods used are: (1) Multiple Linear Regression, (2) Classical Assumption Test (3) coefficient of determination. The results of this study indicate that:(1) inflation does not significantly influence the composite stock price index. (2) foreign exchange reserves have a significant positive effect on the composite stock price index. (3) the rupiah exchange rate has an influence on the composite stock price index and (4) economic growth hasno significant effect on the composite stock price index.

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI)

KINDAI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-562
Author(s):  
Delila Putri Syarina
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Sampling Techniques ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Stock Price Index

Abstract: This study aims to study both partially and simultaneously, large, Analysis, Analysis, Value, Exchange, Inflation, and the Dow Jones Index Against the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and the dominant dominant variable on the Price Index Joint Stock (CSPI)).The method used in this study is a quantitative method and with a population of 10 (ten) years, samples were taken with census sampling techniques of 10 (ten) years per year-end period, research instruments using classical data assumptions - data used using regression linear multiple.The results of this study indicate that (1) Rupiah Exchange Rates, Inflation and the Dow Jones Index influence simultaneously on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (2) the Dow Jones Index is partially related to the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in The Indonesian Stock Exchange, while the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Inflation are not partially on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (3) The dominant dominant variable on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is the Dow Jones Index..Keywords  : Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Dow Jones Index and Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI)   Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui baik secara parsial dan simultan seberapa besar Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi Dan Indeks Dow Jones Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) serta variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dan dengan populasi sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun, diambil sampel dengan teknik sampling sensus sebanyak 10 (sepuluh) tahun per periode akhir tahun, instrument penelitian uji asumsi klasik data – data diuji dengan menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1) Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi dan Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (2) Indeks Dow Jones berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia, sedangkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi tidak berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (3) Variabel yang berpengaruh dominan terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia adalah Indeks Dow Jones. . Kata kunci :     Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi, Indeks Dow Jones dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG).

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Aktiva Bersih Reksadana Saham Syariah Periode 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 332-348
Author(s):  
Hani Nurrahmawati ◽  
Hasbi Assidiki Mauluddi ◽  
Endang Hatma Juniwati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Asset Value ◽  
Net Asset Value ◽  
Net Assets ◽  
Stock Price Index

The title of this research is Analysis Influence of Macroeconomic to Net Asset Value of Islamic Mutual Fund Equity period 2015-2019. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of partially and simultaneously variables of BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate on Net Asset Value of Sharia Mutual Funds in Indonesia in the period January 2015 - December 2019. The dependent variable is Net Asset Value of Sharia Mutual Funds, while the independent variables are BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate.Types of data used in this study are secondary data sourced from OJK, IHSG-IDX and BI published between 2015-2019. All of the data will be processed panel data which is a combination of time series data and cross section data. The results of this research showed that in the partial just variables of the BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate influenced to Net Assets Value of Islamic Mutual Funds in Indonesia, and simultaneous from variables of the BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate influenced to Net Assets Value of Islamic Mutual Funds in Indonesia and the value of Adjusted R-square coefficient of determination is 0.311175 means in togetherness variables of the BI Rate, Inflation, Composite Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate have a contribution influenced NAV of Islamic Mutual Funds in the amount of 31%, while the rest is 69% influenced by other variables that are not included into this research.

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