Predictors of progression of atrial fibrillation in patients with congestive
heart failure
An appreciable progress has recently been achieved in the study of the nature of atrial fibrillation (AF), from its early asymptomatic stages to irreversible arrhythmia. There are data on the risk factors of AF in the literature, but predictors of progressive arrhythmia remain to be elucidated. This study was aimed to identify predictors of AF progression in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Material and methods. The study involved 64 patients aged 59-82 (mean 69,4±3,9) followed up prospectively from September 2010 till June 2016 (observations of mean duration 60±3 mo included regular telephone interviews (each 3 mo) and annual general clinical examination with laboratory and instrumental studies. Continuous or persisting AF served as the criterion for progressive arrhythmia. Results. Cardiovascular complications and progressive arrhythmia were documented in 23 (36%) and 38 (59%) patients respectively during the 60±3 mo observation period. The multifactorial analysis revealed the significant influence of a decrease of left ventricular ejection function (EF) to below 40% and a rise in the plasma level of brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) to more than 903 pg/ml on the risk of development of arrhythmia. Conclusion. Independent predictors of arrhythmia in patients with CHF and persistent AF are a decrease in left ventricular ejection function (EF) to below 40% (1,2, 95% CI 0,9-1,5) and a rise in the plasma Nt-proBNP level to more than 903 pg/ml (OR 1,3, 95% , CI+1,1-2,9). Such a rise predicts transition of arrhythmia into continuous form with sensitivity 92,1% and specificity 84,6%.