scholarly journals The Informativeness Of Cash Flow Forecasts And The Regulation FD Environment

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Karin A. Petruska
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Regulation Fd ◽  
Mere Existence ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

Prior literature shows that analysts forecast estimates serve as a proxy for the markets and investors beliefs which are unobservable. For decades, analysts have generated forecasts for use in valuation models including future estimates of earnings and growth. Yet, only recently, analysts have begun to voluntarily provide cash flow per share forecasts at the same time they are producing earnings per share forecasts for firms they follow. This study addresses whether the tendency of analysts to issue cash flow per share forecasts, as a result of changes in the regulatory environment, affects forecast properties. By examining the time frame surrounding Regulation FD, the analysis provides evidence that both the mere existence and the relative measure of analysts cash flow per share forecasts differ in explaining analysts earnings forecast accuracy. Specifically, the empirical results demonstrate that the relative value of analysts cash flow forecasts, the implied value of unexpected accruals, and cash flow forecast errors facilitate the reduction in analysts earnings forecast errors subsequent to the passage of Regulation FD. Further, the inverse relation between these analysts inputs and earnings forecast errors appear to be driven by firms with more accurate cash flow forecasts.

scholarly journals A Study on the Relationship between Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Issuance and Accounting Information: Evidence from Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Oh ◽  
Ho young Shin
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Financial Analyst ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
The Relationship

This study analyzes the relationship between the future cash flow forecast information provided by financial analysts and accounting information. We examine whether the joint issuance of financial analyst earnings forecasts and cash flow forecasts from 2011 to 2015 contributes to the information usefulness of Korean listed firms. The empirical results of this study are as follows. First, the issuance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts and earnings forecast accuracy were significant positive values. Cash flow forecast accuracy and earnings forecast accuracy were significant positive values. Second, the issuance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts and buy–sell bid spread are significant negative values. These results show that the information asymmetry between the manager and the investor can be reduced based on the rich information environment. This study suggests that cash flow forecasting information of financial analysts provides important evidence for capital market participants because it provides evidence that capital market participants’ information can be used as useful information for economic decision-making. These results show the sustainability of a firm from the viewpoint of a financial analyst who acts as an intermediary and external supervisor in the capital market. In addition, the analysts’ cash flow forecasting information is expected to reduce the information asymmetry between the company and the investor, thereby increasing the transparency and sustainability of the firm.

Regulation FD and the Financial Information Environment: Early Evidence

2003 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Heflin ◽  
K. R. Subramanyam ◽  
Yuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fair Disclosure ◽  
Regulation Fd

On October 23, 2000, the SEC implemented Regulation FD (Fair Disclosure), which prohibits firms from privately disclosing value-relevant information to select securities markets professionals without simultaneously disclosing the same information to the public. We examine whether Regulation FD's prohibition of selective disclosure impairs the flow of financial information to the capital markets prior to earnings announcements. After implementation of FD, we find (1) improved informational efficiency of stock prices prior to earnings announcements, as evidenced by smaller deviations between pre-and post-announcement stock prices; (2) no reliable evidence of change in analysts' earnings forecast errors or dispersion; and (3) a substantial increase in the volume of firms' voluntary, forward-looking, earnings-related disclosures. Overall, we find no evidence Regulation FD impaired the information available to investors prior to earnings announcements, and some of our evidence is consistent with improvement.

Absolute Forecast Errors of Earnings in Malaysian IPO Prospectuses: The Impact of Ethnic Diversity

2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abdullah Ammer ◽  
Nurwati A. Ahmad-Zaluki
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Boards Of Directors ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Audit Committees ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
The Impact

The main focus of this paper is the earnings forecast, a vital information included in IPO prospectus. Specifically, our paper examined the impact of ethnic diversity groups on the boards of directors and audit committees in terms of earnings forecast accuracy. We are motivated by the lack of prior studies related to investigating IPO earnings forecast. Cross-sectional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) modeling was conducted on 190 Malaysian IPOs from 2002 to 2012. For the evaluation of earnings forecast accuracy, we mathematically used the metric of Absolute Forecast Error (AFER). Moreover, for the test of robustness, we used the metric of Squared Forecast Error (SQFER) as error measurement, as it mostly deals with large errors. The empirical results indicate that the ethnic diversity groups on boards and audit committees have an impact on the accuracy of earnings forecasts. However, the evidence is significant for Chinese and Malay serving on boards but insignificant in terms of Chinese and Malay serving on audit committee. The findings indicate that multi-ethnic groups in Malaysian IPO companies could hinder the capability of IPO companies to achieve accurate earnings forecasts in their prospectuses.

The Effects of Financial Statement and Informational Complexity on Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 83 (4) ◽  
pp. 915-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Hodder ◽  
Patrick E. Hopkins ◽  
David A. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Indirect Approach ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Statement Of Cash Flows ◽  
Mixed Pattern ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

ABSTRACT: We characterize the operating-activities section of the indirect-approach statement of cash flows as backward because it presents reconciling adjustments in a way that is opposite from the intuitively appealing, future-oriented, Conceptual Framework definitions of assets, liabilities, and the accruals process. We propose that the reversed-accruals orientation required in the currently mandated indirect-approach statement of cash flows is unnecessarily complex, causing information-processing problems that result in increased cash flow forecast error and dispersion. We also predict that the mixed pattern (i.e., +/−, −/+) of operating cash flows and operating accruals reported by most companies impedes investors’ ability to learn the time-series properties of cash flows and accruals. We conduct a carefully controlled experiment and find that (1) cash flow forecasts have lower forecast error and dispersion when the indirect-approach statement of cash flows starts with operating cash flows and adds changes in accruals to arrive at net income and (2) cash flow forecasts have lower forecast error and dispersion when the cash flows and accruals are of the same sign (i.e., +/+, −/−); with the sign-based difference attenuated in the forward-oriented statement of cash flows. We also conduct a quasi-experiment to test our mixed-sign versus same-sign hypotheses using archival samples of publicly available I/B/E/S and Value Line cash flow forecasts. We find that the passively observed samples of cash flow forecasts exhibit a similar pattern of mixed-sign versus same-sign forecast error as documented in our experiment.

scholarly journals Alternative Disclosure Methods For Accounting Changes And Analysts Earnings Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Buchman ◽  
C. Patrick Fort
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
The Other ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ◽  
Accounting Principles ◽  
Accounting Changes

<span>Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) require that firms changing accounting principles must report the change in one of three ways: the cumulative effect method, the retroactive restatement method, or a no-adjustment (prospective) method. The method a company should use is determined by the type of change being made. This raises the following question: can it be demonstrated that one of these methods is better, in some sense, than the other methods? A major problem in evaluating alternative methods of accounting of the same economic event and in deciding which one method should be adopted as GAAP is that it is impossible to objectively determine which of the alternatives is best. However, it is possible to rank alternatives on one dimension of interest-which method minimizes the income forecasts in years after the change. We obtained a sample of forms making accounting changes and formed three portfolios of firms based on the method they used to account for the change in accounting principle. We then compared financial analysts earnings forecast errors for the firms in the three portfolios. After controlling for relevant variables, we found that, in the year firms made accounting changes the firms making the changes requiring retroactive restatement had significantly larger forecast errors than the firms making changes requiring the other forms of disclosure, but in years subsequent to the year of change there were no significant differences in forecast errors. This leads us to the conclusion that, from an earnings forecast accuracy perspective, there is no advantage to calculating and presenting the cumulative effect of an accounting change or in preparing restated or pro-forma financial statements.</span>

scholarly journals Does Auditor Industry Specialization Increase Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from the Listed Firms of Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Aditi Shams
Keyword(s):  
Audit Quality ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Industry Specialization ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Auditor Industry Specialization

This paper examines the relation between auditor industry specialization and analysts&rsquo; beginning-of-the-year earnings forecast accuracy. It predicts that the higher industry specialization of the auditors will improve the quality of external financial reports and thus mitigates the analysts&rsquo; forecast error. It also predicts that higher audit quality will have a negative association with analyst forecast dispersion. The empirical test results on Australian listed firms from the year 2003 to 2012 does not find evidence of association between audit firm industry specialization and analysts&rsquo; beginning-of the year earnings forecast error. However, firms with higher analysts forecast error is associated with lower forecast dispersion among analysts, which is consistent with the prediction that analysts are consistent with predicting future earnings and analysts possess similar traits in terms of difference with the actual earnings. Additional analysis also finds that&rsquo;s larger firms have less forecast errors compared to smaller firms. The findings contribute to the growing literature on auditing and financial reporting quality in Australian context.

scholarly journals COMPLIANCE WITH IFRS REQUIRED DISCLOSURE AND ANALYSTS’ FORECAST ERRORS: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edilene Santana Santos ◽  
Flávia Almeida Morato da Silva ◽  
Hsia Hua Sheng ◽  
Mayra Ivanoff Lora
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Ifrs Adoption ◽  
Compliance Level ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

We analyze the relationship between analysts' earnings forecast errors and Brazilian listed firms’ compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) required disclosure. Through analysis of a panel data, we examine whether the variance in the Brazilian firms’ disclosure compliance levels in the Notes to Financial Statements for 2010 and 2012 affects analysts’ earnings forecast errors for 2011 and 2013, respectively, finding a significant negative relationship between these variables. By performing a compliance level analysis per firm, our study considers whether and to what extent firms effectively disclose as required by IFRS (as “IFRS serious adopters”), distinguishing them from firms that mere formally adopt IFRS (as “IFRS label adopters”), without effectively complying with it. Following other studies, we use four alternative models to measure the disclosure compliance level per firm, and we do not find significant improvement in the firms’ disclosure levels from 2010 to 2012, except if we use the most tolerant model.  By this approach, our research contributes to clarify the impact of IFRS adoption on analysts’ forecast accuracy, as other studies that use only binary variables (analysts’ forecasts before and after IFRS adoption) have found contradictory results. Our findings confirm other studies on the international accounting convergence in other countries, emphasizing that compliance is at least as important as the simply formal IFRS adoption. This corroborates the relevance of enforcement mechanisms to induce firms to better comply with IFRS, thus to better attain the economic benefits expected from its adoption.

Analysts’ cash flow forecasts informativeness, financial distress and auditor quality

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Afroditi Papadaki ◽  
Olga-Chara Pavlopoulou-Lelaki
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Auditor Quality ◽  
Distressed Firms ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the sophistication (accuracy, bias, informativeness for changes in accruals) and market pricing of analysts’ cash flow forecasts for Eurozone listed firms and the effects of financial distress and auditor quality. Design/methodology/approach Accuracy/bias is investigated using analysts’ cash flow forecast errors. The naïve extrapolation model is used to examine the forecasts’ informativeness for working capital changes. A total return model is used to examine value-relevance. This study controls for the forecast horizon, using the Altman z-score and a BigN/industry specialization auditor indicator to proxy for distress and auditor quality, respectively. Findings Analysts efficiently adjust earnings forecasts for depreciation during cash flow forecast formation but fail to efficiently incorporate working capital changes. Findings indicate cash flow forecasts’ accuracy improves for distressed firms and firms of high auditor quality, attributed to analyst conservatism and accounting choices and more accurate earnings forecasts, respectively. Cash flow forecasts’ value-relevance increases for distressed firms, particularly those of high auditor quality and timely forecasts. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine analysts’ cash flow forecasts taking into consideration financial distress and auditor quality, controlling for the analyst forecast horizon.

Analyst reaction to non-articulation between the balance sheet and the statement of cash flows

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-184
Author(s):  
Peter Frischmann ◽  
K.C. Lin ◽  
Dilin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Financial Statement ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Analyst Earnings ◽  
Statement Of Cash Flows

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of non-articulation on analyst earnings forecast quality. The authors look for evidence on the relationship between non-articulation and analyst earnings forecast properties: forecast inaccuracy, forecast dispersion and forecast bias. Design/methodology/approach The empirical tests are primarily based analyst earnings and cash flow forecasts covered by Institutional Broker Estimate System and financial statement information obtained from Compustat North America database. Findings The authors hypothesize and find that non-articulation is positively related to analyst forecast dispersion, forecast accuracy and forecast bias for one-year ahead of earnings. The effects of non-articulation on analyst earnings forecast inaccuracy and bias are neutralized when the analyst issues a cash flow forecast and when such forecast provides accurate information regarding the forecasted firm’s operating cash flow. On the other hand, cash flow forecast issuance alone does not mitigate the negative influence of non-articulation. Research limitations/implications The sample selection procedure limits the generalizability of the findings. Practical implications The findings confirm CFA Institute and prior research asserting that non-articulation deteriorates the quality of earnings forecasts by financial statement users (more specifically, the financial analysts). The authors add to the literature by documenting that accurate cash flow forecasts help analysts mitigate the negative influence of non-articulation on earnings forecast quality. Originality/value It remains an empirical question whether non-articulation between the balance sheet and the statement of cash flows has an effect on financial statement users’ ability to assimilate financial information. The paper highlights the detrimental effect of non-articulation by documenting the relationship between the non-articulation and the quality of earnings expectation.

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