scholarly journals System analysis and mathematical modeling of the disease caused by the 2019-nCoV coronavirus strain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S N Kostarev ◽  
N A Tatarnikova ◽  
O V Kochetova ◽  
T G Sereda
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Outer Membrane ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Structural Proteins ◽  
Rna Transcription ◽  
Human Virus ◽  
Membrane Matrix ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Rna Genome

Abstract A particular problem at the beginning of the second millennium is the epidemic caused by coronaviruses. In 2002-2003, new strains of viruses appeared – SARS-CoV SARS, in 2012, MERS-CoV. In 2019-2020, the epidemic caused by the coronavirus strain 2019-nCoV, which belong to the Beta-CoV group, is a threat. Different types of coronaviruses infect humans, cats, birds, dogs, cattle, pigs and hares, bats, camels and other animals. Coronaviruses have a single-stranded RNA genome, which encodes 4–5 structural proteins, including proteins of the outer membrane, matrix and small membrane. The complete 2019-nCoV genome is stored online at GenBank: MN908947.3. Coronaviruses have some unique features in RNA transcription. The RNA minus chain serves as a matrix for the synthesis of both new genomic and subgenomic RNAs. To develop a model of human resistance to the disease caused by the coronavirus family, elements, connections and ways of protecting the Human-Virus-Environment system were identified. The destructive functions of sixteen non-structural and structural proteins of the strain 2019-nCoV are considered. Deterministic and statistical models of the development of the danger of infection of the cells have been developed. A parameterized system for protecting a person from coronavirus damage has been developed.

scholarly journals The system analysis and mathematical modeling road accidents in the metropolis

2019 ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
A. G. Davidovsky ◽  
A. M. Linnik
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Traffic Incidents ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Pedestrian Collisions

The article presents the results of correlation analysis of the causes of road accidents in such a modern metropolis as Minsk. Has been identified the most frequent causes of road accidents, including pedestrian collisions caused by drivers, collisions at intersections, incidents at controlled and unregulated pedestrian crossings, as well as on the roadway. The dependence of transport incidents on the time of day, day of the week and month of the year was investigated. Shows the periods when road traffic incidents occur from 3.00 to 6.00 h, from 15.00 to 18.00 and from 21.00 to 24.00 on Monday, Friday and Sunday in January, March, June, September, October and November. Methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis can be the basis of preventive traffic safety management in a modern metropolis.

System analysis of the assessment of the influence of multiplicative interference on the Conditions signal resolutions based on statistical criteria using mathematical modeling

2020 ◽  
pp. 82-95
Author(s):  
В.И. Воловач
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Frequency Shift ◽  
Delay Time ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Statistical Criterion ◽  
Multiplicative Interference ◽  
Statistical Criteria

Проведен системный анализ влияния мультипликативных помех на условия разрешения сигналов на основе статистического критерия с помощью математического моделирования. Показано, что интервалы разрешения по времени запаздывания и частотному сдвигу при известных статистических характеристиках сигналов, аддитивных и мультипликативных помех однозначно определяются вероятностями правильного и ложного разрешения. A system analysis of the influence of multiplicative interference on the signal resolution conditions based on a statistical criterion using mathematical modeling is performed. It is shown that the resolution intervals for delay time and frequency shift with known statistical characteristics of signals, additive and multiplicative interference are uniquely determined by the probabilities of correct and false resolution.

An exploration of predictive football modelling

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-39
Author(s):  
Mitchell Pearson ◽  
Glen Livingston Jr ◽  
Robert King
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Travel Distance ◽  
Predictive Capability ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Probability Score ◽  
Football Match ◽  
Different Types

AbstractPredictive football modelling has become progressively popular over the last two decades. Due to this, numerous studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predict the outcome of a football match. This study provides a review of three different models published in the academic literature and then implements these on recent match data from the top football leagues in Europe. These models are then compared utilising the rank probability score to assess their predictive capability. Additionally, a modification is proposed which includes the travel distance of the away team. When tested on football leagues from both Australia and Russia, it is shown to improve predictive capability according to the rank probability score.

Predicting matches in international football tournaments with random forests

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 460-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunther Schauberger ◽  
Andreas Groll
Keyword(s):  
Random Forests ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
World Cup ◽  
Fifa World Cup ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Covariate Information ◽  
Different Types

Many approaches that analyse and predict results of international matches in football are based on statistical models incorporating several potentially influential covariates with respect to a national team's success, such as the bookmakers’ ratings or the FIFA ranking. Based on all matches from the four previous FIFA World Cups 2002–2014, we compare the most common regression models that are based on the teams’ covariate information with regard to their predictive performances with an alternative modelling class, the so-called random forests. Random forests can be seen as a mixture between machine learning and statistical modelling and are known for their high predictive power. Here, we consider two different types of random forests depending on the choice of response. One type of random forests predicts the precise numbers of goals, while the other type considers the three match outcomes—win, draw and loss—using special algorithms for ordinal responses. To account for the specific data structure of football matches, in particular at FIFA World Cups, the random forest methods are slightly altered compared to their standard versions and adapted to the specific needs of the application to FIFA World Cup data.

scholarly journals Optimal Control of Virus Spread under Different Conditions of Resources Limitations

Information ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 214
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Cost Function ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Human Virus ◽  
Positive Diagnosis ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
The People ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Instantaneous Control

The paper addresses the problem of human virus spread reduction when the resources for the control actions are somehow limited. This kind of problem can be successfully solved in the framework of the optimal control theory, where the best solution, which minimizes a cost function while satisfying input constraints, can be provided. The problem is formulated in this contest for the case of the HIV/AIDS virus, making use of a model that considers two classes of susceptible subjects, the wise people and the people with incautious behaviours, and three classes of infected, the ones still not aware of their status, the pre-AIDS patients and the AIDS ones; the control actions are represented by an information campaign, to reduce the category of subjects with unwise behaviour, a test campaign, to reduce the number of subjects not aware of having the virus, and the medication on patients with a positive diagnosis. The cost function considered aims at reducing patients with positive diagnosis using as less resources as possible. Four different types of resources bounds are considered, divided into two classes: limitations on the instantaneous control and fixed total budgets. The optimal solutions are numerically computed, and the results of simulations performed are illustrated and compared to put in evidence the different behaviours of the control actions.

scholarly journals BIOCHEMICAL AND ULTRASTRUCTURAL PROPERTIES OF A MITOCHONDRIAL INNER MEMBRANE FRACTION DEFICIENT IN OUTER MEMBRANE AND MATRIX ACTIVITIES

1970 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. Chan ◽  
John W. Greenawalt ◽  
Peter L. Pedersen
Keyword(s):  
Outer Membrane ◽  
Membrane Fraction ◽  
Phosphorylation Site ◽  
Membrane Vesicles ◽  
Rat Liver Mitochondria ◽  
Mitochondrial Activity ◽  
Inner Membrane ◽  
Membrane Matrix ◽  
Matrix Fraction ◽  
Stimulation Of

Treatment of the inner membrane matrix fraction of rat liver mitochondria with the nonionic detergent Lubrol WX solubilized about 70% of the total protein and 90% or more of the following matrix activities: malate dehydrogenase, glutamate dehydrogenase, and isocitrate dehydrogenase (NADP). The Lubrol-insoluble fraction was enriched in cytochromes, phospholipids, and a Mg++-stimulated ATPase activity. Less than 2% of the total mitochondrial activity of monoamine oxidase, an outer membrane marker, or adenylate kinase, an intracristal space marker could be detected in this inner membrane fraction. Electron micrographs of negatively stained preparations showed vesicles (≤0.4 µ diameter) literally saturated on the periphery with the 90 A ATPase particles. These inner membrane vesicles, which appeared for the most part to be inverted with respect to the normal inner membrane configuration in intact mitochondria, retained the succinicoxidase portion of the electron-transport chain, an intact phosphorylation site II with a high affinity for ADP, and the capacity to accumulate Ca++. A number of biochemical properties characteristic of intact mitochondria and the inner membrane matrix fraction, however, were either absent or markedly deficient in the inner membrane vesicles. These included stimulation of respiration by either ADP or 2,4-dinitrophenol, oligomycin-sensitive ADP-ATP exchange activity, atractyloside sensitivity of adenine nucleotide requiring reactions, and a stimulation of the Mg++-ATPase by 2,4-dinitrophenol.

HAEMOPHILUS INFLUENZAE TYPE B STRAINS OF OUTER MEMBRANE SUBTYPES 1 AND 1c CAUSE DIFFERENT TYPES OF INVASIVE DISEASE

The Lancet ◽  
1987 ◽  
Vol 330 (8560) ◽  
pp. 647-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
AinoK. Takala ◽  
Juhani Eskola ◽  
Pieter Bol ◽  
Loek Van Alphen ◽  
Juni Palmgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Haemophilus Influenzae ◽  
Outer Membrane ◽  
Invasive Disease ◽  
Haemophilus Influenzae Type ◽  
Haemophilus Influenzae Type B ◽  
Type B ◽  
Different Types
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