scholarly journals Can investors’ collective decision-making evolve? Evidence from Peer-to-Peer lending markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongwoo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Funding Decision ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Peer Lending ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This study tries to identify the accuracy of individual investors' capability to predict a borrower’s creditworthiness in peer-to-peer lending markets and examine whether their ability is likely to evolve over time. The results of this study show that there is no significant difference between the predictive power of investors' ex-ante funding decision model and that of the ex-post repayment model over a borrower’s repayment performance. Furthermore, the predictive power of investors' ex-ante funding decision over a borrower’s repayment performance is shown to improve over time . It is also found that the main reason why investors’ predictive power improve over time is because investors can assess more accurately the information provided by the platform operator and describe the borrower's characteristics. The results of this study are important as they confirm the possibility of optimizing and streamlining the P2P lending market, through the evolution of investors’ decision making.

scholarly journals Going Beyond Panaceas: The Diversity of Land Observatory Forms in Africa

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Grislain ◽  
Jeremy Bourgoin ◽  
Ward Anseeuw ◽  
Perrine Burnod ◽  
Eva Hershaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Video Conferencing ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Information Production ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

In recent decades, mechanisms for observation and information production have proliferated in an attempt to meet the growing needs of stakeholders to access dynamic data for the purposes of informed decision-making. In the land sector, a growing number of land observatories are producing data and ensuring its transparency. We hypothesize that these structures are being developed in response to the need for information and knowledge, a need that is being driven by the scale and diversity of land issues. Based on the results of a study conducted on land observatories in Africa, this paper presents existing and past land observatories on the continent and proposes to assess their diversity through an analysis of core dimensions identified in the literature. The analytical framework was implemented through i) an analysis of existing literature on land observatories, ii) detailed assessments of land observatories based on semi-open interviews conducted via video conferencing, iii) fieldwork and visits to several observatories, and iv) participant observation through direct engagement and work at land observatories. We emphasize that the analytical framework presented here can be used as a tool by land observatories to undertake ex-post self-evaluations that take the observatory’s trajectory into account, or in the case of proposed new land observatories, to undertake ex-ante analyses and design the pathway towards the intended observatory.

DEONTOLOGY, THRESHOLDS, AND EFFICIENCY

Legal Theory ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher T. Wonnell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Rule Following ◽  
Threshold Functions ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Public Decision

This article explores four topics raised by Eyal Zamir and Barak Medina's treatment of constrained deontology. First, it examines whether mathematical threshold functions are the proper way to think about limits on deontology, given the discontinuities of our moral judgments and the desired phenomenology of rule-following. Second, it asks whether constrained deontology is appropriate for public as well as private decision-making, taking issue with the book's conclusion that deontological options are inapplicable to public decision-making, whereas deontological constraints are applicable. Third, it examines the issue of the relationship between deontology and efficiency, asking whether deontological constraints should yield in situations where everyone would expect to benefit from their suspension, either ex ante or ex post. Finally, the article concludes that constrained deontology is susceptible to political abuse because of the many degrees of freedom involved in identifying constrained actions and the point at which those constraints yield to consequentialist benefits.

scholarly journals How should we regulate artificial intelligence?

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2128) ◽  
pp. 20170360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Reed
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Current System ◽  
General System ◽  
Fundamental Rights ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Human Decision

Using artificial intelligence (AI) technology to replace human decision-making will inevitably create new risks whose consequences are unforeseeable. This naturally leads to calls for regulation, but I argue that it is too early to attempt a general system of AI regulation. Instead, we should work incrementally within the existing legal and regulatory schemes which allocate responsibility, and therefore liability, to persons. Where AI clearly creates risks which current law and regulation cannot deal with adequately, then new regulation will be needed. But in most cases, the current system can work effectively if the producers of AI technology can provide sufficient transparency in explaining how AI decisions are made. Transparency ex post can often be achieved through retrospective analysis of the technology's operations, and will be sufficient if the main goal is to compensate victims of incorrect decisions. Ex ante transparency is more challenging, and can limit the use of some AI technologies such as neural networks. It should only be demanded by regulation where the AI presents risks to fundamental rights, or where society needs reassuring that the technology can safely be used. Masterly inactivity in regulation is likely to achieve a better long-term solution than a rush to regulate in ignorance. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The growing ubiquity of algorithms in society: implications, impacts and innovations'.

Competence over Control

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-99
Author(s):  
Alexander Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
International Level ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Over Time

The UN Security Council increasingly authorizes weapons inspections to enforce nonproliferation. These are cases of indirect governance, where the Council (the governor) relies on separate bodies (intermediaries) to conduct inspections in states of concern (targets). Despite the risks, the Council often seems willing to forego control in return for gaining the benefits of a competent intermediary that can address its ambitious policy goals and capability deficits. These cases point to important differences between preexisting intermediaries (such as the IAEA and OPCW) and ad hoc intermediaries created for specific tasks (such as the inspection commissions that operated in Iraq). The latter are far more amendable to control, both ex ante and ex post. Over time, we see increasing goal divergence between the governor and intermediaries, driven mainly by the shifting interests of Security Council members, but we also see the competence of intermediaries increase as they gain on-the-ground experience, making control more difficult. The collective nature of the Security Council further complicates control efforts, creating a temptation for individual members to interfere unilaterally with intermediaries and targets. The analysis suggests that the role of sovereign, strategic targets deserves more attention in the study of indirect governance at the international level.

scholarly journals Screening Stringency in the Disability Insurance Program

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 873-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Johansson ◽  
Lisa Laun ◽  
Tobias Laun
Keyword(s):  
Disability Insurance ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Insurance Program ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Over Time

Abstract We propose a strategy for assessing how the inflow to the disability insurance program has been governed over time. Using ex-post mortality, we analyze the ex-ante health of individuals entering the program, compared to individuals not entering the program in the same year. Applying this strategy to Sweden, we find large variation in the relative health of new beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries over time. Some of the fluctuations correspond well to formal changes to screening stringency. However, we also find large variation in health during periods when no changes to formal eligibility criteria have been pursued.

Evidence on rationality and behavioural biases in investment decision making

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 270-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar ◽  
Nisha Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rational Decision Making ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between rational decision-making and behavioural biases among individual investors in India, as well as to examine the influence of demographic variables on rational decision-making process and how those differences manifest themselves in the form of behavioural biases. Design/methodology/approach Using a structured questionnaire, a total of 386 valid responses have been collected from May to October 2015. Statistical techniques like t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Fisher’s least significant difference (LSD) test have been used in this study. Structural equation modelling (SEM) has been used to analyse the relationship between rational decision-making and behavioural biases. Findings The findings show that the structural path model closely fits the sample data, indicating investors follow a rational decision-making process while investing. However, behavioural biases also arise in different stages of the decision-making process. It further explores that gender and income have a significant difference with respect to rational decision-making process. Male investors are more prone to overconfidence and herding bias in India. Research limitations/implications The findings of the study have significant implication for the individual investors. It is recommended that if individuals are aware about the biases, they may become alert before taking irrational investment decisions. Originality/value To best of the authors’ knowledge, the present study is a first of its kind to investigate the relationship between rational decision-making and behavioural biases among individual investors in India.

scholarly journals Peer-to-peer lending and bias in crowd decision-making

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. e0193007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pramesh Singh ◽  
Jayaram Uparna ◽  
Panagiotis Karampourniotis ◽  
Emoke-Agnes Horvat ◽  
Boleslaw Szymanski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Peer To Peer ◽  
Peer Lending
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