Tracing climate and land-use instability reveals new insights into the future of Earth’s remaining wilderness

Abstract Accelerated loss of Earth’s wilderness over the last five decades underscores the urgency for efforts to retain the conservation value of these areas. Assessing how wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by the future environmental change is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals. Using scenarios of climate and land-use change during baseline (1970–2005) and future (2015–2050) epochs, we found that climate change within wilderness areas is predicted to increase by ~ 47%, compared to a 19% increase in land-use change. Half (52%) of all wilderness areas may undergo climate change by 2050, limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. More significant changes are especially predicted to occur in the unprotected wilderness that supports unique assemblages of species and are therefore more important for biodiversity persistence. Countries with smaller and disconnected wilderness areas are disproportionately at risk from the combined impacts of climate and land-use change. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these frontiers of biodiversity.

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The future role of agriculture and land use change for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ◽

10.1007/s11027-014-9545-8 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 1289-1304 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Tahsin Jilani ◽

Tomoko Hasegawa ◽

Yuzuru Matsuoka

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Future Role ◽

The Future ◽

Change Mitigation

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11123353 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 3353 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari ◽

Ommolbanin Bazrafshan ◽

Thomas Panagopoulos ◽

Elham Rafiei Sardooi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Loss ◽

Soil Cover ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Future Period ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

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Predicting land-use change for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation and its effect on ecosystem services in a watershed in Japan

Ecosystem Services ◽

10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.02.004 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. 25-34 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

Kikuko Shoyama ◽

Yoshiki Yamagata

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Biodiversity Conservation ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Change Mitigation

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Increased uncertainty in Land-Use change impacts on temperature due to Global Warming in CMIP6-LUMIP experiments

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10313 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Arshdeep Singh ◽

Sanjiv Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Direct Method ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Shortwave Radiation ◽

Near Surface ◽

Historical Climate ◽

The Future

Land-use change (LU) is a major regional climate forcing that affects carbon-water-energy fluxes and, therefore, near-surface air temperature. Although there are uncertainties in LU impacts in the historical climate, there is a growing consensus towards a cooling influence in the mid-latitudes. However, how a drier and warmer land surface condition in the future climate can change the LU impacts are not investigated well.We use a comprehensive set of five coupled climate models from the CMIP6-LUMIP project to assess the changing influence of the LU change. We use two methodologies: (1) direct method &#8211; where LU impacts are estimated by subtracting the &#8216;no-LU&#8217; climate experiment from the control experiment that includes LU, and (2) Kumar et al., 2013 (K13) method where LU impacts are estimated by comparing climate change impacts between LU and no-LU neighboring regions.First, we compared the LU impacts in the historical climate and between the direct method and K13 methods using the multi-model analysis. In the North America LU change region, the direct method shows a cooling impact of (-0.14 &#177; 0.13&#176;C). The K13 methods show a smaller cooling impact (-0.09 &#177; 0.08&#176;C). In terms of energy balance, the direct method shows a reduction of net shortwave radiation (-0.82 &#177; 0.91 watts/m2) the K13 method shows a cleaner result of (-1.25 &#177; 0.60 watts/m2), as expected. We suspect that a more substantial influence of the LU change in the direct method is due to large-scale circulation driven response or due to the internal variability that has been canceled out in the K13 method.Next, we extend the K13 method to assess the LU impacts in the future climate. Direct methods are not available for the future climate experiment in CMIP6-LUMIP datasets. We find that a cooling impact of LU change has become statistically insignificant in the future climate (-0.17 &#177; 0.19&#176;C). A similar influence is also found in the reduction of the net shortwave radiation (-1.92 &#177; 3.34 watts/m2). We also found that climate change impacts on temperature are an order of magnitude greater than LU impact in the future climate. Hence, we hypothesize that higher warming has contributed to the larger uncertainty in LU impacts. We will also discuss LU impacts in Eurasia and Indian subcontinent.<img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/fileStorageProxy.php?f=gnp.967d8b47f50063273001161/sdaolpUECMynit/12UGE&app=m&a=0&c=6fbaa64b9acfb208f665dca0184a6955&ct=x&pn=gnp.elif&d=1" alt="">&#160;&#160;ReferenceKumar, S., Dirmeyer, P. A., Merwade, V., DelSole, T., Adams, J. M., & Niyogi, D. (2013). Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations: A new methodology and 21st century challenges.&#160;Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,&#160;118(12), 6337-6353.

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Modeling Land Use and Biodiversity in Northern Thailand

Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling ◽

10.4018/978-1-60960-619-0.ch010 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 199-218 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yongyut Trisurat ◽

Rob Alkemade ◽

Peter H. Verburg

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Integrated Management ◽

Biodiversity Assessment ◽

Northern Thailand ◽

The Future ◽

The Government ◽

Management And Conservation

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand over the last few decades, and it is expected to continue. Besides deforestation, climate change has become a global threat to biodiversity in recent years and in the future. The government has implemented conservation policies aimed at maintaining a forest cover of 50% or more and has been promoting agribusiness, forestry, and tourism development in the region. The goal of this chapter was to analyze the likely effects of various directions of development on the region. Specific objectives were to: (1) forecast land-use change and land-use patterns across the region based on trend, integrated-management, and conservation-oriented scenarios, (2) analyze the consequences of deforestation and climate change for biodiversity, and (3) identify areas most susceptible to future deforestation and high biodiversity loss. The chapter combined a dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a model for biodiversity assessment (GLOBIO3). The Dyna-CLUE model was used to determine the spatial patterns of land-use change for the three scenarios, viz trend, integrated management, and conservation oriented. The methodology developed for the Global Biodiversity Assessment Model framework (GLOBIO3) was used to estimate biodiversity intactness expressed as the remaining relative mean species abundance (MSA) of the original species relative to their abundance in the primary vegetation. The results revealed that forest cover in 2050 would mainly persist in the West and upper North of the region, which is rugged and not easily accessible. In contrast, the highest deforestation was expected to occur in the lower north. MSA values decreased from 0.52 in 2002 to 0.45, 0.46 and 0.48, respectively, for the three scenarios in 2050. The expected MSA values were lower than the predefined target of 30% at outside protected areas for all land use scenarios. The lowest value is found for the trend scenario (20.8%). The expected MSA for trend scenario is below the predefined target of 70% due to high habitat loss and severe fragmentation from road development in the future. Nevertheless, the MSA values for integrated and conservation-oriented scenarios nearly meet the representation goal. Based on the model outcomes, conservation measures were recommended to minimize the impacts of deforestation on biodiversity. The model results indicated that only establishing a fixed percentage of forest was not efficient in conserving biodiversity. Measures aimed at the conservation of locations with high biodiversity values, limited fragmentation, and careful consideration of road expansion in pristine forest areas may be more efficient to achieve biodiversity conservation.

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Flooding risks change due to land use and precipitation change in Northern Taiwan

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10144 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yi-Chiung Chao ◽

Pei-Ling Liu ◽

Chun-Che Chen ◽

Hsin-Chi Li ◽

Chih-Tsung Hsu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Disaster Impact ◽

The Future ◽

Northern Taiwan ◽

Severe Flooding

According to the records, an average of 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan each year over last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was considered the most severe typhoon, which caused huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualty and roughly NT$ 110 billion ($3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. More and more researches documented that typhoon intensity will increase with climate change in western North Pacific region. It will induce the more severe natural disasters, such as flooding, landslide, and water resources risks in Taiwan in the future. Most research focused on the disaster impact assessment in climate change and was assumed that the land use are unchanged in the future. On the other hand, land use changes is another key reason for increasing the hazard risks. Therefore, this study tries to build a land use change model to simulate the land use spatial distribution, and discuss whether the extreme precipitation or the land use change is the major factor to increase flooding risks in Taoyuan City, northern Taiwan in the future.This study applied that Markov chain to project the land use demand in 2036 and used the binary logits regression to establish the land use change probability model to allocate the land use spatial distribution in the future. Then, there are two different precipitation intensities used and integrated the allocated land use to evaluate the risks of flooding in 2036.We successfully established land use spatial allocation model, and linked the allocated results to disaster impact assessment. Assessment results showed that land use change slightly increases the flooding risks; but extreme precipitation induces more severe flooding risks than land use change. Our results point out that extreme precipitation will induce the more severe flooding risks than land use. In addition, the restricted land development policy could efficiently reduce the flooding risks. If government implement climate change adaptation activities with land use management policies at the same time would possibly reduce the climate change disaster impact in the future.

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Climate Change Projections of Terrestrial Primary Productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan Forests

10.5194/esd-2020-84 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Halima Usman ◽

Thomas A. M. Pugh ◽

Anders Ahlström ◽

Sofia Baig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Planning ◽

Primary Productivity ◽

Climate Models ◽

Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽

Strategic Decision ◽

Hindu Kush ◽

The Future

Abstract. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) database. The modeled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary productivity were compared with observation-based estimates. Furthermore, we also explored the net biome productivity (NBP) and VegC over HKH for the period 1850–2100 under the future climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. A reduction is observed in modeled NBP and VegC from 1951–2005 primarily due to land use change. However, an increase in both NBP and VegC is predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The findings of the study have important implications for management of the HKH region and inform strategic decision making, land use planning and clarify policy concerns.

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Climate change projections of terrestrial primary productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan forests

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-12-857-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 857-870

Author(s):

Halima Usman ◽

Thomas A. M. Pugh ◽

Anders Ahlström ◽

Sofia Baig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Planning ◽

Primary Productivity ◽

Climate Models ◽

Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽

Strategic Decision ◽

Hindu Kush ◽

The Future

Abstract. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] caused by anthropogenic activities has triggered a requirement to predict the future impact of [CO2] on forests. The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region comprises a vast territory including forests, grasslands, farmlands and wetland ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of climate change and land-use change on forest carbon fluxes and vegetation productivity are assessed for HKH using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of three climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) database. The modelled estimates of vegetation carbon (VegC) and terrestrial primary productivity were compared with observation-based estimates. Furthermore, we also explored the net biome productivity (NBP) and its components over HKH for the period 1851–2100 under the future climate scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. A reduced modelled NBP (reduced C sink) is observed from 1986–2015 primarily due to land-use change. However, an increase in NBP is predicted under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The findings of the study have important implications for the management of the HKH region, in addition to informing strategic decision making and land-use planning, and clarifying policy concerns.

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