scholarly journals Predicting machine’s performance data using the stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks

Author(s):  
Jianrong Dai

Abstract Purpose Machine Performance Check (MPC) is a daily quality assurance (QA) tool for Varian machines. The daily QA data based on MPC tests show machine performance patterns and potentially provide warning messages for preventive actions. This study developed a neural network model that could predict the trend of data variations quantitively. Methods and materials: MPC data used were collected daily for 3 years. The stacked long short-term memory (LSTM)model was used to develop the neural work model. To compare the stacked LSTM, the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was developed on the same data set. Cubic interpolation was used to double the amount of data to enhance prediction accuracy. After then, the data were divided into 3 groups: 70% for training, 15% for validation, and 15% for testing. The training set and the validation set were used to train the stacked LSTM with different hyperparameters to find the optimal hyperparameter. Furthermore, a greedy coordinate descent method was employed to combinate different hyperparameter sets. The testing set was used to assess the performance of the model with the optimal hyperparameter combination. The accuracy of the model was quantified by the mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Results A total of 867 data were collected to predict the data for the next 5 days. The mean MAE, RMSE, and \({\text{R}}^{2}\) with all MPC tests was 0.013, 0.020, and 0.853 in LSTM, while 0.021, 0.030, and 0.618 in ARIMA, respectively. The results show that the LSTM outperforms the ARIMA. Conclusions In this study, the stacked LSTM model can accurately predict the daily QA data based on MPC tests. Predicting future performance data based on MPC tests will foresee possible machine failure, allowing early machine maintenance and reducing unscheduled machine downtime.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Xiaofei Zhang ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Qi Xiong ◽  
Yina Guo

Imagery-based brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) aim to decode different neural activities into control signals by identifying and classifying various natural commands from electroencephalogram (EEG) patterns and then control corresponding equipment. However, several traditional BCI recognition algorithms have the “one person, one model” issue, where the convergence of the recognition model’s training process is complicated. In this study, a new BCI model with a Dense long short-term memory (Dense-LSTM) algorithm is proposed, which combines the event-related desynchronization (ERD) and the event-related synchronization (ERS) of the imagery-based BCI; model training and testing were conducted with its own data set. Furthermore, a new experimental platform was built to decode the neural activity of different subjects in a static state. Experimental evaluation of the proposed recognition algorithm presents an accuracy of 91.56%, which resolves the “one person one model” issue along with the difficulty of convergence in the training process.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yueling Ma ◽  
Carsten Montzka ◽  
Bagher Bayat ◽  
Stefan Kollet

The lack of high-quality continental-scale groundwater table depth observations necessitates developing an indirect method to produce reliable estimation for water table depth anomalies (wtda) over Europe to facilitate European groundwater management under drought conditions. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are a deep learning technology to exploit long-short-term dependencies in the input-output relationship, which have been observed in the response of groundwater dynamics to atmospheric and land surface processes. Here, we introduced different input variables including precipitation anomalies (pra), which is the most common proxy of wtda, for the networks to arrive at improved wtda estimates at individual pixels over Europe in various experiments. All input and target data involved in this study were obtained from the simulated TSMP-G2A data set. We performed wavelet coherence analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the contributions of different input variable combinations to wtda estimates. Based on the different experiments, we derived an indirect method utilizing LSTM networks with pra and soil moisture anomaly (θa) as input, which achieved the optimal network performance. The regional medians of test R2 scores and RMSEs obtained by the method in the areas with wtd ≤ 3.0 m were 76–95% and 0.17–0.30, respectively, constituting a 20–66% increase in median R2 and a 0.19–0.30 decrease in median RMSEs compared to the LSTM networks only with pra as input. Our results show that introducing θa significantly improved the performance of the trained networks to predict wtda, indicating the substantial contribution of θa to explain groundwater anomalies. Also, the European wtda map reproduced by the method had good agreement with that derived from the TSMP-G2A data set with respect to drought severity, successfully detecting ~41% of strong drought events (wtda ≥ 1.5) and ~29% of extreme drought events (wtda ≥ 2) in August 2015. The study emphasizes the importance to combine soil moisture information with precipitation information in quantifying or predicting groundwater anomalies. In the future, the indirect method derived in this study can be transferred to real-time monitoring of groundwater drought at the continental scale using remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation observations or respective information from weather prediction models.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Enda Du ◽  
Yuetian Liu ◽  
Ziyan Cheng ◽  
Liang Xue ◽  
Jing Ma ◽  
...  

Summary Accurate production forecasting is an essential task and accompanies the entire process of reservoir development. With the limitation of prediction principles and processes, the traditional approaches are difficult to make rapid predictions. With the development of artificial intelligence, the data-driven model provides an alternative approach for production forecasting. To fully take the impact of interwell interference on production into account, this paper proposes a deep learning-based hybrid model (GCN-LSTM), where graph convolutional network (GCN) is used to capture complicated spatial patterns between each well, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is adopted to extract intricate temporal correlations from historical production data. To implement the proposed model more efficiently, two data preprocessing procedures are performed: Outliers in the data set are removed by using a box plot visualization, and measurement noise is reduced by a wavelet transform. The robustness and applicability of the proposed model are evaluated in two scenarios of different data types with the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the proposed model can effectively capture spatial and temporal correlations to make a rapid and accurate oil production forecast.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 155014772110612
Author(s):  
Zhengqiang Ge ◽  
Xinyu Liu ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Dong Guo

To significantly protect the user’s privacy and prevent the user’s preference disclosure from leading to malicious entrapment, we present a combination of the recommendation algorithm and the privacy protection mechanism. In this article, we present a privacy recommendation algorithm, PrivItem2Vec, and the concept of the recommended-internet of things, which is a privacy recommendation algorithm, consisting of user’s information, devices, and items. Recommended-internet of things uses bidirectional long short-term memory, based on item2vec, which improves algorithm time series and the recommended accuracy. In addition, we reconstructed the data set in conjunction with the Paillier algorithm. The data on the server are encrypted and embedded, which reduces the readability of the data and ensures the data’s security to a certain extent. Experiments show that our algorithm is superior to other works in terms of recommended accuracy and efficiency.


Author(s):  
Dejiang Kong ◽  
Fei Wu

The widely use of positioning technology has made mining the movements of people feasible and plenty of trajectory data have been accumulated. How to efficiently leverage these data for location prediction has become an increasingly popular research topic as it is fundamental to location-based services (LBS). The existing methods often focus either on long time (days or months) visit prediction (i.e., the recommendation of point of interest) or on real time location prediction (i.e., trajectory prediction). In this paper, we are interested in the location prediction problem in a weak real time condition and aim to predict users' movement in next minutes or hours. We propose a Spatial-Temporal Long-Short Term Memory (ST-LSTM) model which naturally combines spatial-temporal influence into LSTM to mitigate the problem of data sparsity. Further, we employ a hierarchical extension of the proposed ST-LSTM (HST-LSTM) in an encoder-decoder manner which models the contextual historic visit information in order to boost the prediction performance. The proposed HST-LSTM is evaluated on a real world trajectory data set and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 155014771988313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Hua ◽  
Erxi Zhu ◽  
Liang Kuang ◽  
Dechang Pi

Accurate prediction of the generation capacity of photovoltaic systems is fundamental to ensuring the stability of the grid and to performing scheduling arrangements correctly. In view of the temporal defect and the local minimum problem of back-propagation neural network, a forecasting method of power generation based on long short-term memory-back-propagation is proposed. On this basis, the traditional prediction data set is improved. According to the three traditional methods listed in this article, we propose a fourth method to improve the traditional photovoltaic power station short-term power generation prediction. Compared with the traditional method, the long short-term memory-back-propagation neural network based on the improved data set has a lower prediction error. At the same time, a horizontal comparison with the multiple linear regression and the support vector machine shows that the long short-term memory-back-propagation method has several advantages. Based on the long short-term memory-back-propagation neural network, the short-term forecasting method proposed in this article for generating capacity of photovoltaic power stations will provide a basis for dispatching plan and optimizing operation of power grid.


Author(s):  
Mingqiang Lin ◽  
Denggao Wu ◽  
Gengfeng Zheng ◽  
Ji Wu

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used as the power source in electric vehicles. The state of health (SOH) diagnosis is very important for the safety and storage capacity of lithium-ion batteries. In order to accurately and robustly estimate lithium-ion battery SOH, a novel long short-term memory network (LSTM) based on the charging curve is proposed for SOH estimation in this work. Firstly, aging features that reflect the battery degradation phenomenon are extracted from the charging curves. Then, considering capture the long-term tendency of battery degradation, some improvements are made in the proposed LSTM model. The connection between the input gate and the output gate is added to better control output information of the memory cell. Meanwhile, the forget gate and input gate are coupled into a single update gate for selectively forgetting before the accumulation of information. To achieve more reliability and robustness of the SOH estimation method, the improved LSTM network is adaptively trained online by using a particle filter. Furthermore, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we compare the proposed method with two data-driven methods on the public battery data set and the commercial battery data set. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed method can obtain the highest SOH accuracy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1499-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueling Wu ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Siyuan He ◽  
Zhongfang Wu

Abstract. Air pollution is a serious problem in China that urgently needs to be addressed. Air pollution has a great impact on the lives of citizens and on urban development. The particulate matter (PM) value is usually used to indicate the degree of air pollution. In addition to that of PM2.5 and PM10, the use of the PM2.5 ∕ PM10 ratio as an indicator and assessor of air pollution has also become more widespread. This ratio reflects the air pollution conditions and pollution sources. In this paper, a better composite prediction system aimed at improving the accuracy and spatiotemporal applicability of PM2.5 ∕ PM10 was proposed. First, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in 2017 in Wuhan was obtained based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, with a 1 km spatial resolution, by using the dense dark vegetation (DDV) method. Second, the AOD was corrected by calculating the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and relative humidity (RH). Third, the coefficient of determination of the optimal subset selection was used to select the factor with the highest correlation with PM2.5 ∕ PM10 from meteorological factors and gaseous pollutants. Then, PM2.5 ∕ PM10 predictions based on time, space, and random patterns were obtained by using nine factors (the corrected AOD, meteorological data, and gaseous pollutant data) with the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network method, which is a dynamic model that remembers historical information and applies it to the current output. Finally, the LSTM model prediction results were compared and analyzed with the results of other intelligent models. The results showed that the LSTM model had significant advantages in the average, maximum, and minimum accuracy and the stability of PM2.5 ∕ PM10 prediction.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueling Wu ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Siyuan He ◽  
Zhongfang Wu

Abstract. Air pollution is a serious and urgent problem in China, and it has a great impact on the lives of residents and urban development. The particulate matter (PM) value is usually used to indicate the degree of air pollution. In addition to PM2.5 and PM10, the use of the PM2.5 / PM10 ratio as an indicator and assessor of air pollution has also become more widespread. This ratio reflects the air pollution conditions and pollution sources. In this paper, a better composite prediction system was proposed that aimed at improving the accuracy and spatio-temporal applicability of PM2.5 / PM10. First, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in 2017 in Wuhan was obtained based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images, with a 1 km spatial resolution, by using the Dense Dark Vegetation method. Second, the AOD was corrected by calculating the planetary boundary layer height and relative humidity. Third, the coefficient of determination of the optimal subset selection was used to select the factor with the highest correlation with PM2.5 / PM10 from meteorological factors and gaseous pollutants. Then, PM2.5 / PM10 predictions based on time, space, and random patterns were obtained by using 9 factors (the corrected AOD, meteorological data and gaseous pollutant data) with the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network method, which is a dynamic model that remembers historical information and applies it to the current output. Finally, the LSTM model prediction results were compared and analysed with the results of other intelligent models. The results showed that the LSTM model had significant advantages in the average, maximum and minimum accuracies and the stability of PM2.5 / PM10 prediction.


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