Modeling Freezing Injury in Alfalfa to Calculate Forage Yield: I. Model Development and Sensitivity Analysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 687-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Rao Kanneganti ◽  
C. Alan Rotz ◽  
Richard P. Walgenbach
2003 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 478-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph R.V. Flora ◽  
Richard A. Hargis ◽  
William J. O’Dowd ◽  
Henry W. Pennline ◽  
Radisav D. Vidic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeyoung Koh ◽  
Hannah Beth Blum

This study presents a machine learning-based approach for sensitivity analysis to examine how parameters affect a given structural response while accounting for uncertainty. Reliability-based sensitivity analysis involves repeated evaluations of the performance function incorporating uncertainties to estimate the influence of a model parameter, which can lead to prohibitive computational costs. This challenge is exacerbated for large-scale engineering problems which often carry a large quantity of uncertain parameters. The proposed approach is based on feature selection algorithms that rank feature importance and remove redundant predictors during model development which improve model generality and training performance by focusing only on the significant features. The approach allows performing sensitivity analysis of structural systems by providing feature rankings with reduced computational effort. The proposed approach is demonstrated with two designs of a two-bay, two-story planar steel frame with different failure modes: inelastic instability of a single member and progressive yielding. The feature variables in the data are uncertainties including material yield strength, Young’s modulus, frame sway imperfection, and residual stress. The Monte Carlo sampling method is utilized to generate random realizations of the frames from published distributions of the feature parameters, and the response variable is the frame ultimate strength obtained from finite element analyses. Decision trees are trained to identify important features. Feature rankings are derived by four feature selection techniques including impurity-based, permutation, SHAP, and Spearman's correlation. Predictive performance of the model including the important features are discussed using the evaluation metric for imbalanced datasets, Matthews correlation coefficient. Finally, the results are compared with those from reliability-based sensitivity analysis on the same example frames to show the validity of the feature selection approach. As the proposed machine learning-based approach produces the same results as the reliability-based sensitivity analysis with improved computational efficiency and accuracy, it could be extended to other structural systems.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin McNally ◽  
Craig Sams ◽  
Alex Hogg ◽  
Annie Lumen ◽  
George Loizou

A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for Di-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (DPHP) was developed to interpret the biokinetics in humans after single oral doses. The model was parameterized with in vitro and in silico derived parameters and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was used during the model development process to assess structure, biological plausibility and behaviour prior to simulation and analysis of human biological monitoring data. To provide possible explanations for some of the counter-intuitive behaviour of the biological monitoring data the model included a simple lymphatic uptake process for DPHP and enterohepatic recirculation (EHR) for DPHP and the mono ester metabolite mono-(2-propylheptyl) phthalate (MPHP). The model was used to simultaneously simulate the concentration-time profiles of blood DPHP, MPHP and the urinary excretion of two metabolites, mono-(2-propyl-6-hydroxyheptyl) phthalate (OH-MPHP) and mono-(2-propyl-6-carboxyhexyl) phthalate (cx-MPHP). The availability of blood and urine measurements permitted a more robust qualitative and quantitative investigation of the importance of EHR and lymphatic uptake. Satisfactory prediction of blood DPHP and urinary metabolites was obtained whereas blood MPHP was less satisfactory. However, the delayed peak of DPHP concentration relative to MPHP in blood and second order metabolites in urine could be explained as a result of three processes: 1) DPHP entering the systemic circulation from the lymph, 2) rapid and very high protein binding and 3) the efficiency of the liver in removing DPHP absorbed via the hepatic route. The use of sensitivity analysis is considered important in the evaluation of uncertainty around in vitro and in silico derived parameters. By quantifying their impact on model output sufficient confidence in the use of a model should be afforded. This approach could expand the use of PBPK models since parameterization with in silico techniques allows for rapid model development. This in turn could assist in reducing the use of animals in toxicological evaluations by enhancing the utility of “read across” techniques.


Author(s):  
N. Marie ◽  
A. Marrel ◽  
K. Herbreteau

Abstract This paper presents a statistical methodology for a quantified validation of the OCARINa simulation tool, which models the unprotected transient overpower (UTOP) accidents. This validation on CABRI experiments is based on a best-estimate plus uncertainties (BEPU) approach. To achieve this, a general methodology based on recent statistical techniques is developed. In particular, a method for the quantification of multivariate data is applied for the visualization of simulator outputs and their comparison with experiments. Still for validation purposes, a probabilistic indicator is proposed to quantify the degree of agreement between the simulator OCARINa and the experiments, taking into account both experimental uncertainties and those on OCARINa inputs. Going beyond a qualitative validation, this work is of great interest for the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification or evaluation model development and assessment process approaches, which leads to the qualification of scientific calculation tools. Finally, for an in-depth analysis of the influence of uncertain parameters, a sensitivity analysis based on recent dependence measures is also performed. The usefulness of the statistical methodology is demonstrated on CABRI-E7 and CABRI-E12 tests. For each case, the BEPU propagation study is carried out performing 1000 Monte Carlo simulations with the OCARINa tool, with nine uncertain input parameters. The validation indicators provide a quantitative conclusion on the validation of the OCARINa tool on both transients and highlight future efforts to strengthen the demonstration of validation of safety tools. The sensitivity analysis improves the understanding of the OCARINa tool and the underlying UTOP scenario.


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