The Impacts of Demographic Changes on Pension Scheme and Capital Market Return

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tristan Nguyen ◽  
Ralf Stuetzle
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Market Return

scholarly journals Implications of an aging population on pension systems and financial markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Tristan ◽  
Stützle Ralf
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Aging Population ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Distribution Of Wealth ◽  
Welfare Losses

In this paper, we introduce a macroeconomic model of overlapping generations to analyze the impacts of the demographic changes as well as the interactions between pension system, bond and stock markets. Furthermore, we examine how the pension system influences the distribution of wealth, consumption and saving within generations.In the context of this model, we show a drastic decline of capital market returns due to an aging population. Moreover, we examine the impacts demographic changes can have on individuals’ welfare for an existing pay-as-you-go pension scheme. Raising the pensionable age combined with a decrease of the contributions seems to be the best policy. On the other hand, increases in contributions as a result of demographicchanges show the highest welfare losses. Taken into account the recent pension reforms in Germany, raising the retirement age or a faster transition from a pay-as-you-go pension system to a capital funded one would make sense. But it is questionable whether such a policy will be enforceable with an aging electorate.

Gains from Integration? An Empirical Hint from the Eurozone

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-512
Author(s):  
Ku-Hsieh Chen ◽  
Jen-Chi Cheng ◽  
Joe-Ming Lee ◽  
Chih-Chun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Productivity Gain ◽  
Group A ◽  
Degree Of Risk

Has the eurozone (EZ) really gained from integration? This study applied two econometric frameworks, mGARCH and gMMPI, to test this hypothesis, using panel data that span 1996–2014, a total of 19 years, involving the EZ, EU, G8, G20 and some emerging economies. The empirical outcomes initially showed that the EZ economies experienced neither superior output growth nor a better capital market return than non-EZ economies or the pre-EZ period. They further suggested that each EZ country had a higher degree of risk bearing and, as a group, a greater risk linkage. Moreover, the results indicated that the EZ had a higher productivity gain if the risk premium was counted as part of productivity. Nonetheless, the EZ did not show a substantial productivity gain when the effect of the risk factor was controlled. The ratio of risk bearing to risk premium gain was shown to be 1 to 0.97. The general conclusion is that, other than the risk premium, there was no extra productivity gain for the EZ from taking the risk.

PENGARUH EKSPOR, IMPOR DAN NILAI KURS TERHADAP INFLASI DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP RETURN PASAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akhmad Sodiqin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Macro Variables

The aim of this research is to analyze influence of macro variables which is expor, import and exchange to inflation partially or siumltanously and its impact to market return in capital market. Data which used to analyze that taken form 2011 untill 2013 of the year. Based on analyze, it concluded that export, import, exchange rate and inflation didn’t influence to inflation partially or simultanously which hapenned from 2011 untill 2013. Based path analyzes conncluded that export, import and exchange rate didn’t influence to market return through inflation.

scholarly journals Type of Traders’ Effect on Risk and Return: The Case of Egyptian Stock Exchange

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 256
Author(s):  
Aly Saad Mohamed Dawood ◽  
Khairy El-Giziry
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Lag Structure ◽  
Egyptian Stock Exchange

<p>This research paper aims to estimate the effect of investor categories (Foreigners, Arab, Egyptian institutions and individuals) trading volume, value and number of transactions on capital market returns and volatility.  </p><p>We depend on data Foreigners, Arabian and Egyptian trading volume, values and number of transaction of buying and selling for institutions and individuals and capital market values for the period from January 1st 2009 to December 31 2013.</p><p>We used descriptive statistics to identify normal distribution of data. Then, performing lead lag structure approach to obtain the optimum lag for the independent variable which has the maximum correlation with the dependent variable. Next, Garch model utilized to estimate the effect of trading volume, value, number of transactions on capital market return and volatility. Finally, the same model utilized to estimate the effect of investor categories on capital market return and volatility for the six periods starting from January 1<sup>st</sup> 2009 to December 31 2013 which represents the whole period and five yearly periods for the same period.</p><p>We found that institutions are the main source of volatility in the Egyptian stock market. Garch models showed weak effect on volatility for all periods. In the light of this study Foreigners and trading value items are the main source of effect on volatility. Finally, consistent with Chou (1988), the findings of GARCH model indicated that volatility persistence is less than unity which revealed that the Egyptian stock market could absorb shocks across time.</p>

scholarly journals International trade with pensions and demographic shocks

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-164
Author(s):  
IGOR FEDOTENKOV ◽  
BAS VAN GROEZEN ◽  
LEX MEIJDAM
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Relative Size ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Central Question ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Intensive

AbstractThe central question of this paper is how international trade and specialization are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialize in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialization will intensify in the long run. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialize in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialization in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase.

Good and Bad News on Capital Market Return Ellipticity

2009 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-210
Author(s):  
Martin Eling ◽  
Luisa Tibiletti
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Market Return

scholarly journals The contributory pension scheme and the financial system development in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Cosmas O. ODO ◽  
Okeke Chinedu
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
System Development ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Domestic Savings

The article examined the influence of the contributory pension scheme on the financial system development in Nigeria. Evidence accumulated from both theoretical and empirical literature point to the power of contributory pension to deepen the financial system. An empirical work earlier done showed that the total domestic savings (TDS) increased during the post- pension period; and that the capital market capitalization rose significantly over the period. It was also observed that its implementation has created an impressive scenario whereby now pension funds account for 30% and 8% bond and stock markets capitalization, respectively. This is beside the increased activities in the life subsector of the insurance industry. Keywords: pension, financial system development, contributory pension, pay-as-you-go. JEL Classification: G230

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF ASSET ACCUMULATION OF THE PROPOSED SLOVENIAN, MANDATORY-FUNDED PENSION PILLAR

2001 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-539
Author(s):  
T. KERLJ ◽  
G. DOLINAR ◽  
D. MRAMOR
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Asset Accumulation ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
Dynamic Simulation Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of a proposed mandatory earnings-related fully-funded pension scheme, named as the second pillar, on the accumulation of pension-funds assets and possibly on the capital market development in Slovenia. First, the dynamic simulation model is developed to estimate the accumulated pension-funds assets as a percentage of GDP in each future time period under the assumption of certainty. It is followed by the assumptions and estimates of the data used for independent variables and the results obtained by implementing the model for the period of 25 years. Relaxing the assumption of certainty, the paper proceeds with estimations of accuracy of the results with three methods. It is concluded, that the estimated level of accumulated pension-funds assets in GDP 25 years after the introduction of the reform will be approximately 40% and comparable to the level in countries with developed capital markets. Also, the accuracy of the estimate is surprisingly good. It is therefore expected that besides other effects, the introduction of this pension scheme would have an important impact on the development of the Slovenian capital market.

scholarly journals The incremental informativeness of sell-side earnings forecasts. Evidence for the Warsaw Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (105 (161)) ◽  
pp. 77-94
Author(s):  
Stephen Jakubowski ◽  
Piotr Wójtowicz
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
The Mean

We investigate whether earnings forecasts issued by sell-side analysts are incrementally informative about the returns of firms listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), a moderately-developed, postcommunist capital market. Our sample covers the fiscal years 2008-2016. The informativeness of earn- ings (and earnings forecasts) is defined as the association between earnings (earnings forecasts) and returns. Our findings indicate that the mean earnings forecasts issued by sell-side analysts are incremen- tally informative about firm returns beyond the earnings reported. This result does not depend on firm size, profitability, or market return. The findings indicate that such forecasts incorporate useful incremen- tal valuation information and that the incremental informativeness of these forecasts serves to protect the interests of analysts’ clients.

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