scholarly journals International trade with pensions and demographic shocks

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-164
Author(s):  
IGOR FEDOTENKOV ◽  
BAS VAN GROEZEN ◽  
LEX MEIJDAM
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Relative Size ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Central Question ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Intensive

AbstractThe central question of this paper is how international trade and specialization are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialize in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialization will intensify in the long run. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialize in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialization in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase.

Public pensions and international migration: some clarifications and illustrative results

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
SONJA MUNZ ◽  
MARTIN WERDING
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
Public Pensions ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Permanent Migration ◽  
The Uk

Immigration is often thought of as a measure suited to mitigate the fiscal consequences of demographic ageing for unfunded public pension schemes. Building on Sinn (1997), the paper explores in some more detail the conditions under which immigrants are a net fiscal asset for national pension budgets not only on a temporary basis – i.e., as long as they are paying contributions and before they start drawing benefits – but also in the long run. Illustrative simulations are provided for the cases of Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US. It turns out that the value of immigrants depends on the nature of the pension scheme (Bismarck vs Beveridge). Also, it is strongly affected by the immigrants' characteristics in terms of skills and fertility. Furthermore, effects differ substantially for the cases of temporary vs permanent migration.

scholarly journals In Quest of the Craft

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Annual Conference ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
World Conference ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Selection Of

INFORUM is a research project started more than forty five years ago by Clopper Almon. The focus is on the development of dynamic, interindustry, macroeconometric models to forecast the economy in the long run. Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to model building has been shared by economists in many different countries. Researchers have focused much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use similar methods and a common software obtaining comparable results to produce studies of common interest to the group. Inforum partners have shared their research in an annual conference since 1993. The XXII Inforum World Conference was held in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2014 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during the sessions. All these contributions share an empirical and pragmatic orientation that is very useful for policymakers, business, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (productivity, energy, international trade, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to model building and simulations.

scholarly journals A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Hany Fahmy
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

International Trade and Economic Performance in Tanzania: Further Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Ally A. L. Kilindo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Spurious Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reform Period ◽  
Manufactured Goods

Abstract The study investigated the role of international trade in economic performance in Tanzania for the post reform period, from 1980 to 2018. International trade is measured by disaggregated imports and exports while economic performance is measured by GDP growth. Exports are disaggregated into manufactured goods and non-manufactured goods while imports are disaggregated into capital goods and intermediate goods. To obtain robust non-spurious regression results, Dickey-Fuller (D-F) and Phillips-Peron (PP) Unit Root tests were performed. Johansen Co-integration tests were employed to investigate long-run relationships between export, imports and economic growth. The Johansen test suggested a long-run relationship between international trade and its components and economic development. In addition, the Error Correction Model (ECM) results further supported a long-run relationship between international trade and economic growth in Tanzania. This calls for further opening of the economy and further liberalisation of trade restrictions.

scholarly journals The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An application to Turkey

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 447-469
Author(s):  
Senay Acikgoz ◽  
Merter Mert
Keyword(s):  
Capital Stock ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy

The purpose of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of the Turkish economy?s natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth, covering the period 1980-2008. To determine the reason why the natural rate of growth is endogenous, the long-run and the causality relationships between real gross domestic product and each of the production factors (labour force and physical capital stock) are investigated with the bounds test. The natural rate of growth for the Turkish economy is found to be at 4.97 percent and it increases approximately 35.6 percent in the boom periods; indicating endogeneity. However, according to the causality test results, the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth may be attributed to the total factor productivity rather than the labour force and physical capital stock. This result is important and the debate on this subject may lead to further studies.

scholarly journals TRADE AND GROWTH IN A NON‐RECOGNIZED SMALL ISLAND STATE: EVIDENCE FROM THE TURKISH REPUBLIC OF NORTHERN CYPRUS

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-130
Author(s):  
Salih Katircioglu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Island State ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
Small Island State ◽  
Growth Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This paper empirically investigates long‐run equilibrium relationship and causality between international trade and economic growth in North Cyprus, which has a non‐recognized state and suffers from the Cyprus problem for more than 40 years. Results reveal that long‐run equilibrium relationship exists between international trade variables (exports and imports of goods and services) and economic growth in this small island state. The present study also validates the existence of export‐led growth hypothesis in Northern Cyprus while it rejects the validity of import‐led growth hypothesis. Finally, this study has shown that Turkish Cypriots should improve not only services exports but also merchandise exports in to contribute to its economy further. Santrauka Straipsnyje, remiantis empiriniais duomenimis, tyrinejama ilgalaike pusiausvyra bei priežastinis ryšys tarp tarptautines prekybos ir ekonominio augimo Šiaures Kipre, kuris yra nepripažintas ir kenčia del šios politines problemos daugiau negu 40 metu. Empirinio tyrimo rezultatai leidžia teigti, kad tarp tarptautines prekybos rodikliu (prekiu ir paslaugu eksporto bei importo) bei ekonominio augimo šioje mažoje saloje vyrauja ilgalaike pusiausvyra. Tyrimas patvirtina hipoteze apie eksporto kaip ekonominio augimo veiksnio svarba, bet paneigia importo itaka nagrinejamos mažos šalies pletrai. Autorius ragina skatinti ne tik paslaugu, bet ir produkcijos eksporta norint pasiekti spartesni ekonomikos augimo masta Šiaures Kipre.

Pensions and Providence: Dutch Employers and the Creation of Funded Pension Schemes

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-303
Author(s):  
Erik Nijhof
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
The State ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Corporate Pension ◽  
Demographic Shifts

From an international perspective, the Dutch system of old age provisions stands out for its wide coverage, fixed benefits, and an overall actuarial soundness that seem to make this system more shock proof to demographic shifts and economic adversities than those in other “Western” countries. Its actual foundation is a compulsory old age insurance for all citizens, enforced by law and implemented by the state; this insurance is supplemented by fully funded pension schemes for workers and employees, operating under legal control; and finally there is a variety of additional and noncompulsory pension benefits and individual insurance arrangements. The main impetus to the genesis of this system came from employers who, with different agendas, created various pension funds; eventually it was the state, which set a decisive example with a funded pension fund for its civil servants. This became the standard to all corporate pension schemes and provoked innovations like branch funds. These initiatives were supported and regulated by legislation that made these arrangements compulsory and guaranteed their juridical independence and actuarial soundness. Only after this legally promoted maturation of private funds, the state set out to create public arrangements on a “pay-as-you-go” basis for all citizens. This delicate interplay between private and public pension arrangements is highly characteristic of the Dutch variety of capitalism in a broader context. In the polarity between liberal and coordinated market economies, as developed by Soskice and Hall, the Dutch system of old age provisions has played a prominent role in ranking this country more firmly into the latter category. However, within this range of countries the Dutch system of old age provisions is also a bit atypical: private corporate and branch arrangements were encouraged and at the same time embedded in a legal framework. The role of the state was also remarkable: a supervisor of the private funds, a collector and distributor in a universal insurance system, and an employer with an exemplary pension scheme.

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

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