scholarly journals Implications of an aging population on pension systems and financial markets

Author(s):  
Nguyen Tristan ◽  
Stützle Ralf

In this paper, we introduce a macroeconomic model of overlapping generations to analyze the impacts of the demographic changes as well as the interactions between pension system, bond and stock markets. Furthermore, we examine how the pension system influences the distribution of wealth, consumption and saving within generations.In the context of this model, we show a drastic decline of capital market returns due to an aging population. Moreover, we examine the impacts demographic changes can have on individuals’ welfare for an existing pay-as-you-go pension scheme. Raising the pensionable age combined with a decrease of the contributions seems to be the best policy. On the other hand, increases in contributions as a result of demographicchanges show the highest welfare losses. Taken into account the recent pension reforms in Germany, raising the retirement age or a faster transition from a pay-as-you-go pension system to a capital funded one would make sense. But it is questionable whether such a policy will be enforceable with an aging electorate.

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishay Wolf ◽  
Jose Maria Caridad y Ocerin

Purpose This paper aims to analytically show that in an over-lapping-generation (OLG) model, low earning cohorts bear unwanted risk and absorb higher economic cost than high earning cohorts do. Design/methodology/approach This paper aims to consider the individual's risk appetite, using a simple utility function, based on consumptions and discount rates in each period. This paper calibrates the model according to teh Israeli pension system as a representative of a small open developed organization for economic cooperation and development country. Israel is considered as unique case study in the pension landscape, as it implements almost pure defined contribution pension scheme with continuous trend of pension market capitalization (Giorno and Jacques, 2016). Hence, this study finds Israel suitable for examining the theoretical mix of pension scheme. That model enables exploring combined solutions for adequate old age benefits, involving the first and the second pension pillars, under fiscal constraints. Findings It comes out that for risk-averse individuals, the optimal degree of funding is negatively correlated to asset returns' volatility and positively correlated to earning decile level. The neglect of risk and individual's current earning level will thus overstate the contribution level and funded percentage from total contributions. Moreover, even in an economy with minimum government intervention, and highly developed private pension fund with high average of rate of return, the authors find it is optimal that the pension system contains a sizeable unfunded pillar. This paper innovates by revealing a socio-economic anomaly in design of mix pension systems in favor of high earning cohorts on the expense of economic loss of low earning cohorts. Practical implications The model presented in this paper could be implemented in countries with mix pension systems, as an alternative to public social transfers or means tested, alleviating poverty and inequality in old age. Additionally, this model could raise the public awareness of the financial sustainability of the unfunded pay-as-you-go pillar to diversify financial risk in pension systems, especially for low earning cohort in society. Social implications One area of research that is particularly relevant in this context concerns the issue of alleviating poverty and income inequality. It is often stressed that the prevention of old age poverty is among the central targets of well-designed pension system (Holzmann and Hinz, 2005). The conceptualization of minimum pension guarantee used in this composition allows to clearly capturing the notion of such a poverty and social targets as an integral part of the pension system rolls. Originality/value This paper innovates by revealing a socio-economic anomaly in design of mix pension systems in favor of high earning cohorts on the expense of economic loss of low earning cohorts. That comes to realize through the level of total contribution rates and funded share that are generally optimal for high earning cohorts but not for low earning cohorts. This paper identifies that the effect of anomaly is most significant in a market characterized with high income-inequality level. This paper finds that imposing intra-generational risk sharing instrument in the form of minimum pension guarantee can re-balance pension design among different earning cohorts. This solution demonstrates balancing effect on the entire economy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 525
Author(s):  
Ishay Wolf

This study introduces multiplayer game in the modern pension market. Particularly, this study claims that low earners and high earners have different interests when playing in funded pension market scheme. This differentiating is enabled by avoiding the entire society as a single earning cohort. This study using financial position, demonstrates a socio-economic anomaly in the funded pension system, which is in favor of high-earning cohorts at the expense of low-earning cohorts. This anomaly is realized by a lack of insurance and exposure to financial and systemic risks. Furthermore, the anomaly could lead to a pension re-reform back to an unfunded scheme system, due mostly to political pressure. This study found that a minimum pension guarantee is a rebalance mechanism for this anomaly, which increases the probability of a sustainable pension scheme. Nowadays when countries try to balance between social expenses and awaking financial markets, one may find this theory highly relevant. It is obviously one of the cases where social targets meat financial equilibrium and here they are in the same side. Specifically, it is argued that implementing the guarantee with an intra-generational, risk-sharing mechanism is the most efficient way to reduce the effect of this abnormality.


2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Jedynak

In recent years, a number of modifications that have a significant impact on the shape of the pension system in Poland are introduced and discussed (e.g. OFE [Open Pension Funds] reform, implementation of the PPK [Employee Capital Plans], introduction of civil pensions, etc.). The result of these changes is that the traditional, three-pillar way of presenting the shape of this system does not reflect its essence any more. On the basis of the typologies of multi-pillar pension systems proposed in the literature, the study propose a new concept for presenting the shape of the general pension system in Poland. It consists of four levels of pension security, distinguished by the criterion of the initiating subject. These levels together form the base and the supplementary part of the pension system.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1(21)) ◽  
pp. 45-61
Author(s):  
Lasha Beridze ◽  
Giorgi Abuselidze

The existence of pension schemes does not count for a long period, but its obligation has been historically proven, as the experience of countries has shown that the countries that have the best practices provide better social protection of the population when retiring. The article discusses the redistribution of pension assets worldwide, pragmatically and theoretically evaluating the pros and cons of retirement plans. The implementation of the pension reform in Georgia has been delayed many times due to the socio-economic situation, accompanied by the psychological attitude of the population towards distrust of the state. Georgia is on the path to European integration, where one of the most important requirements is the proper protection and social equalization of the socially vulnerable, while the existence of pension schemes ensures the accumulation of large amounts of funds, which can play an important role in capital and financial markets. The advantages of the existence of pension schemes may be reflected in the permanent increase of the equalization ratio, but it should be noted that at such times the macroeconomic indicators of the state should be relatively stable, such as inflation, stability of the national currency and others. As of today, the tasks set before the Pension Agency in Georgia are quite ambitious and require effective management, as the pension reform takes only a few years.In the social security system of the population, the pension is a mechanism for maintaining a stable material condition during the period of disability. Following in the footsteps of the development of mankind, pension systems were improved, the main purpose of which was to replace the average income per capita during the working period in a way that would not worsen living conditions. Therefore, the pension replacement rate has become a measure of the evaluation of the pension system of a country. The replacement rate in the pension systems of developed countries is in the range of 60-80%, in developing countries it is 15-30%, which is systematically subject to adjustment. Georgia, despite the normal rate of economic growth in the last decade, is not distinguished by a pension provision mechanism. From the day of independence, the state basic pension was periodically subject to changes. The change, however, was related not so much to the approach to the subsistence level as to the subsequent promises of a change of government. At the present stage, the pension system is in the process of modification, which aims to ensure adequate pension income, fiscal sustainability of pension expenditures and a more effective response to demographic changes in the population. Developing and developing countries are trying to equalize the time of retirement of the population, which is often difficult to achieve and requires both economic and political decisions, because the financing of social security from the state budget requires large expenditures. Which can often be the result of the devaluation of the national currency and high inflation, which in itself can be seen as an impediment to economic development. The increase in social spending is often the subject of controversy among scientists-economists, for example, for the development of the state, what kind of spending will be more effective, financing social or capital projects ?! Often, the increase in capital expenditures, at the expense of the social situation, is not considered a popular political decision, because at this time the dissatisfaction of the socially vulnerable segments of the population increases. One of the goals of the accumulative pension is to achieve social equality and a high replacement rate, but how much it will work in Georgia is also a question, because the unemployment rate and the self-employed are high in terms of labor force, in particular, about 30% of the labor force The amount of monthly salary that is published statistically is also problematic, because the calculation methodology is often disputed and there is no minimum wage at the level of legislation. The main functions of the Pension Agency are to invest the accumulated funds, but investments in investment assets are not defined by the National Bank and are quite narrow, for example, foreign practice allows pension funds to invest funds in both real assets and foreign financial markets. As mentioned, the implementation of such investments by the Pension Agency should be allowed in Georgia and should be used to finance national, strategic projects. Ensuring the stability of inflation and the national currency in Georgia remains a challenge. In the event of inflation approaching double digits, pension savings will lose effectiveness. Also noteworthy is the gender imbalance when receiving a pension, namely in terms of average salary and life expectancy, a man's salary is about 4 times higher than a woman receiving a pension, which should be considered unfair, the state will have to adjust the retirement age in the future. Finally, it should be noted that the pension reform, despite its shortcomings, should be considered a step forward, but it needs to refine certain issues, diversify asset management and economic stability, which will not be easy to achieve.


Author(s):  
Matthias Wrede

SummaryThis paper employs a three-period-overlapping-generations model to discuss intergenerational (in-)efficiency of a PAYG system when labor supply is endogenous. Four main results will be derived.First, a pension system is (constrained) efficient if the existing system itself and reforms are restricted to guarantee that benefits are proportional to contributions in present value terms.Second, the result does not carry over to other pension systems where the benefits of a retiree are proportional to weighted individual contributions.Third, if the actual PAYG scheme is not a second-best-optimum for some generations, a welfare improving reform is possible provided that the government is not restricted to systems with partial equivalence of contributions and benefits in present value terms. A Pareto-improving transition from the PAYG system to a fully funded system might become feasible provided that the change in the pension scheme is accompanied by an adequate compensating redistribution among generations.Fourth, partial equivalence in present value terms, which requires uniform benefit-adjusted taxation of labor income, does not ensure intergenerational efficiency in all circumstances. However, if uniform benefit-adjusted taxation were optimal, a pension system like the German PAYG system would not be intergenerationally efficient since it misses partial equivalence in present value terms.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (14) ◽  
pp. 146-155
Author(s):  
Evija Dundure ◽  
Biruta Sloka

The main objective of the improvements to public pension systems is to create a balanced three-pillar pension structure and increase public accountability for pension capital formation. Most pension systems are based on the first two pension system pillars – mandatory contributions in the state compulsory unfunded pension scheme and the state-funded or accumulated pension scheme in pension funds. However, the pension level adequacy has been reached by adding the third pension system pillar - voluntary investments in private pension funds. Governments are private pension system policymakers by defining a legal framework and providing tax incentives for voluntary investments for retirement. In the Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the third pension pillar is at an early stage of its development, and as such, should be particularly stimulated. This research focuses on the tax incentives utilized by the governments of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and aims to ascertain and compare the effectiveness of the tax incentive policies applied to the third pension pillar by the governments of the three Baltic countries. It questions the effectiveness of the incentive mechanisms the governments of the Baltic countries have chosen, which include involving most of the population in the private pension saving programs. The research methods used are the analysis of scientific publications on the previously conducted research, acts of legislation of Baltic countries, as well as an analytical study of statistical data on the development of voluntary pension fund contributions in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The research results indicate that the tax incentives are the mechanism to motivate the population to create savings in the third pension pillar in all three Baltic countries. However, Latvia being the country with the highest coverage rate of the third pension pillar has the most unfavorable conditions for creating savings. There are no tax incentives on returns on investment and tax-exempt withdrawals in Latvia, while Estonia and Lithuania have all positions tax-exempt. A more detailed analysis of the tax incentives at the contribution stage explains the underdeveloped third pension pillar in Lithuania, as Lithuanian personal income tax reliefs are targeted at low or medium wages or gross income. The research has highlighted the impact of tax incentives on voluntary savings for retirement in the three Baltic countries, opening a discussion about the effectiveness of governments' applied mechanisms.


Funded pension systems around the world have long relied on relatively high and predictable long-term capital market returns. Yet these retirement systems confront a key challenge today, namely, how to deal with what appears to be persistently low returns on bonds and equities. For this reason, it will be prudent, and probably necessary, for insurers, plan sponsors, workers, retirees, and policymakers to take concrete steps to prepare for these lower long-term expected rates of return to retirement wealth. In fact, as we show in this volume, a persistent low-interest-rate economy will compel many to revisit how much they save, how they invest, and how long they can afford to live in retirement. Academics, policymakers, and industry leaders debate alternative strategies to cope with these challenges globally, as economic growth remains slow and low returns become the ‘new normal.’


Author(s):  
С.В. Фрумина

В статье представлена характеристика пенсионной системы Малайзии как одной из развивающихся стран, столкнувшихся с демографическими проблемами. Автор рассматривает устоявшиеся в Малайзии пенсионные схемы: пенсионную схему для государственных служащих, для работников частного сектора, для военнослужащих, для самозанятых граждан и добровольные частные пенсионные схемы. Акцент делается на формировании пенсионных счетов. The article describes the pension system of Malaysia, as one of the developing countries faced with demographic problems. The author considers pension schemes established in Malaysia: a pension scheme for public servants, for private sector employees, for military personnel, for self-employed citizens and voluntary private pension schemes. The emphasis is on the formation of retirement accounts.


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