scholarly journals The Contributions of Domestic and External Factors to Latin American Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven B. Kamin ◽  
Oliver D. Babson
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Warning Systems

The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven B. Kamin ◽  
John Schindler ◽  
Shawna Samuel
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Warning Systems

scholarly journals The Contribution of Domestic and External Factors to Emerging Market Devaluation Crises : An Early Warning Systems Approach

2001 ◽  
Vol 2001 (711) ◽  
pp. 1-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Kamin ◽  
◽  
John W. Schindler ◽  
Shawna L. Samuel
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Warning Systems

scholarly journals Modeling Dynamic System for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Maros District

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (E) ◽  
pp. 901-905
Author(s):  
Ilham Salam ◽  
A. Arsunan Arsin ◽  
Atjo Wahyu ◽  
Agus Bintara Birawida ◽  
Aminuddin Syam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
R And D

BACKGROUND: Efforts to control the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have been carried out intensively, however, there is no significant reduction in the number of DHF sufferers. Meanwhile, the predictive model is expected to be an early warning to anticipate the incidence of DHF. AIM: Therefore, this study aims to determine the dynamic model for predicting dengue fever incidence in Maros Regency from 2020 to 2040. METHODS: This study used the research and development (R and D) method with a dynamic systems approach. The study was conducted in Maros Regency and the data on dengue cases in Maros Regency from 2014 to 2018 were used as samples. Meanwhile, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was used to determine policy scenarios in reducing dengue cases while the analysis of the dynamic model of dengue fever was conducted using the Powersim program. RESULTS: The critical elements of DHF prevention in the Maros Regency include the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and outreach. Furthermore, the prediction of the average incidence of dengue fever from 2020 to 2040 has decreased based on dynamic model simulations by applying the Jumantik scenario (46.8%), 3M Plus (61.17%), early warning systems (74.4%), counseling (52.12%), and the combined scenario (97.87%). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of dengue fever in the Maros Regency is prevented and controlled by the combination of the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and counseling.

A systems approach to routing global gridded runoff through local high-resolution stream networks for flood early warning systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 120 ◽  
pp. 104501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Qiao ◽  
E. James Nelson ◽  
Daniel P. Ames ◽  
Zhiyu Li ◽  
Cédric H. David ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Stream Networks

scholarly journals UNA PROPUESTA DE MODELO DE DIFUSIÓN DE ALERTA TEMPRANA PARA DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA EN EL PERÚ USANDO LA TELEVISIÓN DIGITAL TERRESTRE

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Jimmy Rosales H. ◽  
Fredy Campos A. ◽  
Víctor Córdova B. ◽  
Carmen Matos A. ◽  
José Corimanya M. ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Digital Television ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Interactive Services ◽  
Digital Terrestrial Television

Con la implantación de la Televisión Digital Terrestre (TDT) en los países latinoamericanos y su capacidad para desarrollar servicios interactivos, se abre un nuevo camino para mejorar la conectividad existente mediante aplicaciones que permitan la comunicación ubicua. El Perú es un país que se encuentra en el cinturón de fuego del Pacífico y tiene constantemente muchos desastres naturales siendo propenso a los deslizamientos de tierra. Por ello, en el presente trabajo se pretende usar la TDT para ayudar a las personas en caso de un desastre natural, mediante una alerta temprana, en forma de mensaje que aparecerá en el monitor de un televisor en forma de ventana, informando acerca de la situación existente, esta información es importante ya que proporciona la comunicación de alerta en situaciones de emergencia y es vital para reducir el número de víctimas que se podría producir. El propósito de este trabajo es proponer un modelo de alerta temprana en el caso de ocurrencia de un deslizamiento (huayco), el cual podría ser aplicado en el futuro en algunas zonas propensas a estos eventos naturales. Este modelo propone su adecuación a la realidad Peruana y sirve como punto de partida para usar la TDT en el caso de otro tipo de emergencia similar. Palabras clave.- Sistemas de alerta temprana, Huayco, Deslizamiento de tierra, Televisión digital terrestre. ABSTRACTWith the implementation of Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) in Latin American countries and their ability to develop interactive services, it opens a new way to enhance existing applications that allow connectivity using ubiquitous communication. Peru is a country located in the Ring of Fire and has many natural disasters constantly being prone to landslides. Therefore, in the present work it is to use DTT to help people in the event of a natural disaster through early warning, as a message that will appear on a TV monitor as a window informing about the situation, this information is important as it provides communication alert in emergency situations and is vital to reduce the number of victims could be produced. The purpose of this paper is to propose a model of early warning in case of occurrence of a landslide (landslide), which could be applied in the future in some of these natural events prone areas. This model proposes its relevance to the Peruvian reality and serves as a starting point for using DTT in the case of other similar emergency. Keywords.- Early warning systems, Huayco, Landslide, Terrestrial digital television.

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1845) ◽  
pp. 2167-2182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reid Basher
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
The People ◽  
Strong Focus ◽  
Social Vulnerabilities ◽  
Technical Basis

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

scholarly journals Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. e0009686
Author(s):  
Laith Hussain-Alkhateeb ◽  
Tatiana Rivera Ramírez ◽  
Axel Kroeger ◽  
Ernesto Gozzer ◽  
Silvia Runge-Ranzinger
Keyword(s):  
Yellow Fever ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
National Surveillance ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Almost All

Background Early warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users’ perspective of their applications. Methods Data were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area. Findings Through the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users’ perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level. Conclusions In view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.

The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 518-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bensadon ◽  
A. Strauss ◽  
R. Snacken
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Surveillance Networks ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
National Networks ◽  
First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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