scholarly journals The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on China's Macroeconomy: A Perspective of International Trade

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiyi Chen ◽  
Dengke Chen ◽  
Wolfgang K. HHrdle
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 178-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dengke Chen ◽  
Shiyi Chen ◽  
Wolfgang Härdle

This paper is aimed at investigating and understanding the relationship between China’s macro-economy and oil price from a new perspective—the international trade perspective. We find strong evidence to suggest that the increase of China’s price level, resulting from oil price shocks, is statistically less than that of its main trade partners’. This helps us to understand the confused empirical results estimated within the SVAR framework. More specifically, SVAR results suggest that China’s output level is positively correlated with the oil price. Positive correlation between China’s output and oil price shocks presumably results from the drop in China’s relative price induced by oil price shocks, which is inclined to stimulate China’s goods and service exports.


2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.


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