Aggregate Demand Deficiency, Labor Unions, and Long-run Stagnation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryu-ichiro Murota
2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 868-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryu-ichiro Murota

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 167-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Gyourko ◽  
Christopher Mayer ◽  
Todd Sinai

We document large long-run differences in average house price appreciation across metropolitan areas over the past 50 years, and show they can be explained by an inelastic supply of land in some unique locations combined with an increasing number of highincome households nationally. The resulting high house prices and price-to-rent ratios in those “superstar” areas crowd out lower income households. The same forces generate a similar pattern among municipalities within a metropolitan area. These facts suggest that disparate local house price and income trends can be driven by aggregate demand, not just changes in local factors such as productivity or amenities. (JEL R11, R23, R31, R52)


Author(s):  
Okwan Frank ◽  
Kovacs Peter

The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis formulated by a classical British economist David Ricardo argues that a reduced tax now is a tax increase in the future, the substitution of debt for current taxes has no effect on aggregate demand. The main objective of this paper is to examine empirically the existence of the Ricardian equivalency in Ghana by using time series data running from 1990 to 2017 and ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Model framework developed by Pesaran and Shin (1995,1999). We examined the long run relationship between the dependent variable household final consumption expenditure and independent variables government expenditure, deficit, GDP per capita and gross debt. The long run results showed a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita and household consumption expenditure. The result of analysis supports the Keynesian conventional theory and found strong evidence against the existence of the Ricardian Equivalency Hypothesis in Ghana.


2006 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 549-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
ISABEL SANZ-VILLARROYA

This article analyses the short-run periods that can be derived from the GDP per capita series for Argentina between 1875 and 1990, after extracting its segmented long-run trend using time series techniques and unit root tests. It also studies the economic forces which, from the aggregate demand side, might provide an explanation for this behaviour. This mode of operation makes it possible to identify successive cycles more accurately than in previous studies. A high level of agreement is observed between the results of this study and arguments in the literature regarding the causes shaping these short-run periods: the analysis demonstrates that exports were the key factor until 1932 while after this year consumption and investment came to predominate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 385-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brett Fiebiger

As is well known, the closure of the canonical Neo-Kaleckian model is an endogenous rate of capacity utilisation. To allay concerns of Harrodian instability one response has been to endogenise the normal rate to effective demand pressures. Recent contributions have stressed microfoundations for an adjustment in the normal rate towards the actual rate. The new approach focuses on shiftwork and redefines capacity utilisation as the average workweek of capital. This paper examines whether the new concept of capacity utilisation can provide a firmer basis for endogeneity in the normal rate. It argues that the assumption of variability in the normal shift system cannot be generalised across manufacturing industries, while the potential relevance for non-manufacturing industries is unknown. Another concern is that long-run trends in the average workweek of capital and aggregate demand do not coincide. The paper also finds that the long-run trend in the US Federal Reserve's index of capacity utilisation for the manufacturing sector is not flat as frequently claimed. Instead, there is a downward trend from the mid 1960s, which matches the slowdown in aggregate demand.


Author(s):  
Samuele Bibi

Abstract This paper focuses on the dynamics analysis from the ultra-short to the short period from a Post-Keynesian perspective. It is argued that the construction of both the short-run and the long-run models are based on the critical assumption of an equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Starting from the work by Metzler (1941. The nature and stability of inventory cycles, The Review of Economic Statistics, 113–29), the issue of equilibrium and stability is investigated inside a Keynesian–Kaleckian perspective. The suggested model analyses under which conditions the standard Kaleckian conclusions are still valid considering a disequilibrium situation. Two scenarios are simulated: one with fixed expectations as in Metzler (1941. The nature and stability of inventory cycles, The Review of Economic Statistics, 113–29) and another based on adaptive expectations and asymmetric behaviour of the wages–unemployment relation. The model questions the effective demand labour curve and suggests that an increase in real autonomous expenditures, mainly by the government, might be even more essential than what is generally considered in the Kaleckian literature, to avoid increasing unemployment a world with increasing wages.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ichiro Takahashi ◽  
Isamu Okada

Abstract Economists have investigated how price–wage rigidity influences macroeconomic stability. A widely accepted view asserts that increased rigidity destabilizes an economy by requiring a larger quantity adjustment. In contrast, the Old Keynesian view regards nominal rigidity as a stabilizing factor, because it reduces fluctuations in income and thus aggregate demand. To examine whether price–wage stickiness is stabilizing or destabilizing, we build an agent-based Wicksell–Keynes macroeconomic model, which is completely closed and absolutely free from any external shocks, including policy interventions. In the model, firms setting prices and wages make both employment and investment decisions under demand constraints, while a fractional-reserve banking sector sets the interest rate and provides the firms with investment funds. As investment involves a gestation period, it is conducive to overproduction, thereby causing alternate seller’s and buyer’s markets. In the baseline simulation, a stable economy emerges with short-run business cycles and long-run fluctuations. One unique feature of the economy is its remarkable resilience: When afflicted by persistent deflation, it often manages to reverse the deflationary spiral and get back on a growth track, ultimately achieving full or nearly full employment. The virtual experiments demonstrate that prices and wages must both be moderately rigid to ensure long-run stability. The key stabilizing mechanism is a recurring demand-sufficient economy, in which firms are allowed to increase employment while simultaneously cutting real wages.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 517-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Servaas Storm

Milton Friedman's presidential address to the American Economic Association holds a mythical status as the harbinger of the supply-side counter-revolution in macroeconomics – centred on the rejection of the long-run Phillips-curve inflation–unemployment trade-off. Friedman (seconded by Edmund Phelps) argued that the long run is determined by ‘structural’ forces, not demand, and his view swept the profession and dominated academic economics and macro policymaking for four decades. Friedman, tragically, put macroeconomics on the wrong track which led to disaster: secular stagnation, rising inequality, mounting indebtedness, financial fragility, a banking catastrophe and recession – and no free lunches. This is Friedman's legacy. We have to unlearn the wrong lessons and return macroeconomics to the right track. To do so, this paper shows that Friedman's (and Phelps's) conclusions break down in a general model of the long run in which productivity growth is endogenous – aggregate demand is driving everything again, short and long.


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