An Analysis on the Structural Breaks in Dynamic Conditional Correlations Among Equity Markets Based on the ICSS Algorithm: The Case from 2015-2016 Chinese Stock Market Turmoil

PurposeThis study aims to examine the long memory as well as the effect of structural breaks in the US and the Chinese stock markets. More importantly, it further explores possible causes of the differences in long memory between these two stock markets.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ various methods to estimate the memory parameters, including the modified R/S, averaged periodogram, Lagrange multiplier, local Whittle and exact local Whittle estimations.FindingsChina's two stock markets exhibit long memory, whereas the two US markets do not. Furthermore, long memory is robust in Chinese markets even when we test break-adjusted data. The Chinese stock market does not meet the efficient market hypothesis (EMHs), including the efficiency of information disclosure, regulations and supervision, investors' behavior, and trading mechanisms. Therefore, its stock prices' sluggish response to information leads to momentum effects and long memory.Originality/valueThe authors elaborately illustrate how long memory develops by analyzing not only stock market indices but also typical individual stocks in both the emerging China and the developed US, which diversifies the EMH with wider international stylized facts and findings when compared with previous literature. A couple of tests conducted to analyze structural break effects and spurious long memory demonstrate the reliability of the results. The authors’ findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers worldwide.

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VOLATILITY IN STOCK RETURN SERIES OF VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

Science and Technology Development Journal ◽

10.32508/stdj.v14i3.1975 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 14 (3) ◽

pp. 5-21

Author(s):

Vinh Xuan Vo ◽

Ngan Thi Kim Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Stock Returns ◽

Stock Return ◽

Structural Breaks ◽

Garch Models ◽

Financial Policies ◽

Long Span ◽

Return Variance ◽

Daily Stock Returns ◽

Icss Algorithm

This paper studies the features of the stock return volatility using GARCH models and the presence of structural breaks in return variance of VNIndex in the Vietnam stock market by using the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using a long-span data, GARCH and GARCH in mean (GARCH-M) models seems to be effective in describing daily stock returns’ features. About structural breaks, when applying ICSS to standardized residuals filtered from GARCH (1, 1) model, the number of volatility shifts significantly decreases in comparison with the raw return series. Events corresponding to those breaks and altering the volatility pattern of stock return are found to be country-specific. Not any shifts are found during global crisis period. Further evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, volatility persistence remarkably reduces and that the conditional variance of stock return is much affected by past trend of observed shocks and variance. Our results have important implications regarding advising investors on decisions concerning pricing equity, portfolio investment and management, hedging and forecasting. Moreover, it is also helpful for policy-makers in making and promulgating the financial policies.

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The Australian Stock Market’s Reaction to the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Black Summer Bushfires: A Sectoral Analysis

Journal of Risk and Financial Management ◽

10.3390/jrfm14040175 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 175

Author(s):

Samet Gunay ◽

Walid Bakry ◽

Somar Al-Mohamad

Keyword(s):

Information Technology ◽

Real Estate ◽

Stock Market ◽

Regime Switching ◽

Structural Breaks ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Financial Contagion ◽

Chinese Stock Market ◽

Switching Regression ◽

The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on various sectors of the Australian stock market. Market capitalization and equally weighted indices were formed for eleven Australian sectors to examine the influence of the pandemic on them. First, we examined the financial contagion between the Chinese stock market and Australian sector indices through the dynamic conditional correlation fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-FIGARCH) model. We found high time-varying correlations between the Chinese stock market and most of the Australian sector indices, with the financial, health care, information technology, and utility sectors displaying a decrease in co-movements during the pandemic. The Modified Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (MICSS) analysis results indicated the presence of structural breaks in the volatilities of most of the sector indices around the end of February 2020, but consumer staples, industry, information technology and real estate indices did not display any break. Markov regime-switching regression analysis depicted that the pandemic has mainly affected three sectors: consumer staples, industry, and real estate. When we considered the firm size, we found that smaller companies in the energy sector exhibited gradual deterioration, whereas small firms in the consumer staples sector experienced the largest positive impact from the pandemic.

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