scholarly journals Real Convergence in the Euro Area: A Long-Term Perspective

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo ◽  
Ettore Dorrucci ◽  
Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz ◽  
Sona Muzikarova
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Real Convergence

scholarly journals The Importance of the Sustainability of the Romanian Convergence Process to the Euro Zone

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 161-170
Author(s):  
Ioana Raluca Sbârcea
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
Euro Adoption ◽  
Real Convergence ◽  
Convergence Process ◽  
The Moment

Abstract Since 2007, Romania has been under the under the glance of experts in the European Union, but also under the strict monitoring of the NBR and also under the pressure of citizens and investors' expectations about the moment of euro adoption. My research concerns have also been channeled to this point of maximum interest, impact and timeliness, which is why I have proposed through this paper to highlight a synthetic situation regarding the fulfillment of the convergence criteria from the moment of accession to the European Union, to the present. The objective of this paper is to reflect, in dynamics and correlation, the degree of fulfillment of the nominal and real convergence criteria, the sustainability of the levels achieved for certain indicators, so necessary for joining the single currency, without shocks. Romania is a country subject to frequent fluctuations at all levels: economic, political, legislative, also reflected in the fluctuations in meeting the convergence criteria. The lack of medium and long-term sustainability of the criteria considered necessary for joining the euro area will make this desiderate ever more remote.

Anchoring of Consumers’ Long-Term Euro Area Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Galati ◽  
Richhild Moessner ◽  
Maarten <!>van Rooij
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflation Expectations

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10276
Author(s):  
María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera ◽  
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Sustainability Controlling ◽  
Aging Societies

Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge in the Euro Area (EA) countries after the sharp rise in public debt-to-GDP ratios in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Using data from 11 EA countries over the period 1980–2019, we apply panel data techniques to examine the effects of population aging on fiscal sustainability, controlling for key macroeconomic variables. Our results suggest that the discretionary fiscal policy is strongly persistent, not being consistent with long-term fiscal solvency. Moreover, our results indicate that the fiscal stance is countercyclical for the countries under study and that population aging poses a major challenge for fiscal sustainability. The findings are robust to a different grouping of countries within the sample (core and peripheral countries, relatively old and young countries, and relatively more and less indebted countries). We consider that our results may have some practical meaning for national policymakers and international organizations responsible for regional and global fiscal surveillance and might shed some light on the possible effects that population aging could have on the effort of EA countries to restore public finances on a sustainable basis.

scholarly journals Which News Moves the Euro Area Bond Market?

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Andersson ◽  
Szabolcs Sebestyén ◽  
Lars Jul Overby
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Market Responses ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
Bond Futures

AbstractThis paper explores a long dataset (1999-2005) of intraday prices on German long-term bond futures and examines market responses to major macroeconomic announcements and ECB monetary policy releases. German bond markets tend to react more strongly to the surprise component in US macro releases compared with aggregated and national euro area and UK releases, and the strength of those reactions to US releases has increased over the period considered. We also document that the numbers of German unemployed workers consistently have been known to investors before official releases.

scholarly journals Revisiting euro area accession terms: fiscal rectitude is not sufficient!

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (s1) ◽  
pp. 73-97
Author(s):  
Daniel Daianu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Real Convergence ◽  
Production Value ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Productivity Gains

This paper argues that there are conditions for successful euro area (EA) accession, apart from fiscal rectitude. One is an ex ante critical mass of real convergence which should enhance lasting nominal convergence. Another condition is an overhaul of EA mechanisms and policies that should make it a properly functioning monetary union, which implies an adequate mix between risk-reduction and risk-sharing. It is argued that risk-sharing cannot be secured by private sector arrangements only. Entering the ERM2 is deemed to be no less demanding than euro area accession per se, especially for countries that use fl exible exchange rate regimes. The paper examines also the infl uence of production (value) chains on the efficacy of autonomous monetary and exchange rate policies when it comes to controlling external imbalances; macro-prudential policies, too, are highlighted in this regard. Steady productivity gains are a must for surmounting the middle income trap and achieving sustainable real convergence.

At a Glance … The world economy

2012 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
World Economy ◽  
List Type ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Depression Era ◽  
The Impact ◽  
India And China

World growth is expected to remain below trend at 3.1 per cent in 2012 and 3.4 per cent in 2013.The Euro Area is forecast to contract by 0.5 per cent this year and grow only marginally next year with unemployment reaching ‘depression-era’ rates in some periphery economies. The US is likely to grow by 2 per cent in each year.Growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China will be below long-term potential next year, although ‘hard-landings’ will be avoided; the impact on advanced economies will be offset by a large gain in competitiveness.Debt to GDP ratios in OECD countries will, on average, be higher in 2014 than at present.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic stability as the condition for Bulgaria to join the euro area

Equilibrium ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-315
Author(s):  
Anna Moździerz
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Convergence ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

Research background: The subject of research is the macroeconomic situation of Bulgaria in the context of the country's preparations for joining the euro area. In 2018, the Bulgarian government approved a plan of preparations covering the period until the end of June 2019, which assumes that the country will join the ERM II mechanism in July 2019, and the euro area on 1 January 2022. Bulgaria meets four nominal convergence criteria regarding inflation, long-term interest rate, budget deficit and public debt. The national currency is pegged to the euro under the currency board arrangement. Despite this, the implementation of this optimistic scenario may be difficult because since the 2007 crisis, the European institutions pay more attention to macroeconomic stability and the sustainability of convergence. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify the factors destabilising macroeconomic equilibrium in Bulgaria, which are a potential obstacle to the adoption of the euro by Bulgaria on schedule. Methods: The research was based on the changes in selected macroeconomic indicators, as well as on the method used by the European Commission to detect macroeconomic imbalances. The observation and analysis covered the 2007–2018 period.  Findings & Value added: The research results indicate that the low level of socio-economic convergence of Bulgaria and macroeconomic imbalances may delay its membership in the monetary union. Therefore, while respecting the country's aspirations to join the euro area, one cannot ignore the risk of another destabilisation of the euro area. 

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