Estimating the Life Expectancy and Value of Statistical Life (VSL) Losses from COVID-19 Infections in the United States

Author(s):  
Linus Wilson
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Hoffmann ◽  
Alan Krupnick ◽  
Ping Qin

This study is the eighth in a series of stated-preference studies designed to enhance the basis for international benefits transfer of value of statistical life (VSL) estimates. The series has fielded essentially similar stated-preference surveys in Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan, Mongolia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This Chinese study estimates the willingness to pay for contemporaneous and future mortality risk reductions of residents of Shanghai, Jiujiang, and Nanning, China using a stated-preference payment-card survey. The pooled VSL for a contemporaneous reduction in annual mortality risk reduction of 5 in 10,000 is about 1.47 million 2009 yuan ($614,805 U.S. $2016), with income elasticities of 0.2 to 0.25. This VSL estimate is at the lower end of estimates from the eight countries, between those from Mongolia and Japan, and in the mid-range of estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reductions as a percentage of household income. We find lower discount rates in the Mongolia, Japan, and China studies than in those fielded in North America or Europe. The study also explores the relative performance of dichotomous choice and stated-preference card elicitation methods in a middle income country setting and develops a computerized “payment card” that allows testing for anchoring. Implicit transfer elasticities across countries, calculated using the VSLs we estimate and each country’s income, relative to those of the United States, yields estimates of 0.88–0.95 for the lower income countries. These compare with the default assumption of 1.0 or assumed elasticities of 1.2 for developing countries.


Demography ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arline T. Geronimus ◽  
John Bound ◽  
Timothy Waidmann ◽  
Cynthia G. Colen ◽  
Dianne Steffick

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Basu ◽  
Russell S. Phillips ◽  
Seth A. Berkowitz ◽  
Bruce E. Landon ◽  
Asaf Bitton ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon B. Dahl ◽  
Claus Kreiner ◽  
Torben Heien Nielsen ◽  
Benjamin Ly Serena

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iliya Gutin ◽  
Robert A. Hummer

Despite decades of progress, the future of life expectancy in the United States is uncertain due to widening socioeconomic disparities in mortality, continued disparities in mortality across racial/ethnic groups, and an increase in extrinsic causes of death. These trends prompt us to scrutinize life expectancy in a high-income but enormously unequal society like the United States, where social factors determine who is most able to maximize their biological lifespan. After reviewing evidence for biodemographic perspectives on life expectancy, the uneven diffusion of health-enhancing innovations throughout the population, and the changing nature of threats to population health, we argue that sociology is optimally positioned to lead discourse on the future of life expectancy. Given recent trends, sociologists should emphasize the importance of the social determinants of life expectancy, redirecting research focus away from extending extreme longevity and toward research on social inequality with the goal of improving population health for all. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Sociology, Volume 47 is July 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.


Circulation ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 125 (suppl_10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter T Katzmarzyk ◽  
I-Min Lee

Introduction: Sedentary behaviors such as television viewing are ubiquitous in modern society. Several prospective studies have demonstrated an association between television viewing and incident obesity and type 2 diabetes as well as cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Hypothesis: We tested the null hypothesis that television viewing has no impact on life expectancy in the United States. Methods: A prevalence-based cause-deleted methodology was used to estimate the gains in life expectancy in the population that would be expected under current mortality patterns if television viewing was eliminated as a potential risk factor in the United States. The population attributable fraction (PAF, calculated using adjusted relative risk (RR) = ∑P(RR-1/RR)) was computed from the RR of all-cause mortality associated with television viewing (2–3.9 h and ≥4 h versus < 2 h) obtained from a meta-analysis of available prospective cohort studies, and the estimated case prevalence (P) of television viewing obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005–06) and the prospective cohort studies. The resulting PAF was applied to mortality rates among 18+ year olds living in the United States and an abridged life table analysis was used to estimate the potential gains in life expectancy. Results: Three prospective cohort studies contributed data to the meta-analysis, yielding summary RR estimates for all-cause mortality of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.04 – 1.32) and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.22–1.82) for 2–3.9 h and ≥4 h of television viewing versus <2 h, respectively. The estimated case prevalences of television viewing in the U.S. population were 23.8%, 45.7% and 37.2% for <2 h, 2–3.9 h and ≥4 h of television viewing, respectively. The estimated gain in life expectancy in the US population associated with television viewing was 1.38 years. The lower and upper limits from a sensitivity analysis which involved simultaneously varying the estimates of RR (using the upper and lower bounds of the 95% CI) and the prevalence of television viewing (± 20%) were 0.48 years and 2.50 years. Conclusions: Reducing sedentary behaviors such as television viewing has the potential to increase life expectancy in the United States.


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