scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Adjusted Mortality Risk in Care Homes for Older Adults in Wales, United Kingdom: A Retrospective Population-Based Cohort Study for Mortality in 2016-2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Jane Lyons ◽  
Richard Fry ◽  
Ashley Akbari ◽  
Mike Gravenor ◽  
...  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Jane Lyons ◽  
Richard Fry ◽  
Ashley Akbari ◽  
Mike Gravenor ◽  
...  

Abstract Background mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Aim to analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4 years. Study Design and Setting we used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020. Methods we calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted HRs for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions. Results survival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1.72 (1.55, 1.90) compared with 2016. Compared with the general population in 2016–2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2.15 (2.11, 2.20) in 2016–2019 to 2.94 (2.81, 3.08) in 2020. Conclusions the survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.


2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 3293-3302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Higueras-Fresnillo ◽  
Verónica Cabanas-Sánchez ◽  
Esther García-Esquinas ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Artalejo ◽  
David Martinez-Gomez

2015 ◽  
Vol 173 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Holland-Bill ◽  
Christian Fynbo Christiansen ◽  
Uffe Heide-Jørgensen ◽  
Sinna Pilgaard Ulrichsen ◽  
Troels Ring ◽  
...  

ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate the impact of hyponatremia severity on mortality risk and assess any evidence of a dose–response relation, utilizing prospectively collected data from population-based registries.DesignCohort study of 279 508 first-time acute admissions to Departments of Internal Medicine in the North and Central Denmark Regions from 2006 to 2011.MethodsWe used the Kaplan–Meier method (1 – survival function) to compute 30-day and 1-year mortality in patients with normonatremia and categories of increasing hyponatremia severity. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs, adjusted for age, gender and previous morbidities, and stratified by clinical subgroups were estimated by the pseudo-value approach. The probability of death was estimated treating serum sodium as a continuous variable.ResultsThe prevalence of admission hyponatremia was 15% (41 803 patients). Thirty-day mortality was 3.6% in normonatremic patients compared to 7.3, 10.0, 10.4 and 9.6% in patients with serum sodium levels of 130–134.9, 125–129.9, 120–124.9 and <120 mmol/l, resulting in adjusted RRs of 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3–1.4), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.6–1.8), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.4–1.9) and 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.5) respectively. Mortality risk was increased across virtually all clinical subgroups, and remained increased by 30–40% 1 year after admission. The probability of death increased when serum sodium decreased from 139 to 132 mmol/l. No clear increase in mortality was observed for lower concentrations.ConclusionsHyponatremia is highly prevalent among patients admitted to Departments of Internal Medicine and is associated with increased 30-day and 1-year mortality risk, regardless of underlying disease. This risk seems independent of hyponatremia severity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonella Potalivo ◽  
Jonathan Montomoli ◽  
Francesca Facondini ◽  
Gianfranco Sanson ◽  
Luigi Arcangelo Lazzari Agli ◽  
...  

Background: Among COVID-19 patients, the decision of which ventilation strategy to adopt is crucial and not guided by existing outcome evidence. We described the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients according to the adopted respiratory strategy. Methods: Population-based cohort study including all COVID-19 patients (26/02/2020-18/04/2020) within Rimini Italian province. Hospitalized patients were classified according to the maximum level of respiratory support: oxygen supplementation (group Oxygen), NIV (group NIV-only), IMV (group IMV-only), and IMV after a NIV trial (group IMV-after-NIV). Sixty-day mortality risk was estimated with a Cox proportional hazard analysis adjusted by age, sex, and administration of steroids, canakinumab, and tocilizumab. Findings: We identified 1,424 symptomatic patients: 520 (36.5%) were hospitalized, the remaining 904 (63.5%) were treated at home with no 60-days death. According to the respiratory support, 408 (78.5%) were assigned to Oxygen, 46 (8.8%) to NIV-only, 25 (4.8%) to IMV-after-NIV, and 41 (7.9%) to IMV-only groups. There was no significant difference in the P/F at IMV inception among IMV-after-NIV and IMV-only groups (p=0.9). Overall 60-day mortality was 24.2% (Oxygen: 23.0%; NIV-only: 19.6%; IMV-after-NIV: 32.0%; IMV-only: 36.6%; p = 0.165). Compared with Oxygen group, the 60-day mortality risk significantly increased for IMV-after-NIV (HR 2.776; p=0.024) and IMV-only group (HR 2.966; p=0.001). Conclusions: This study provides a population-based figure of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. A similar 60-days mortality risk was found for patients undergoing immediate IMV and those intubated after a NIV trial. Many patients had a favorable outcome after prolonged IMV.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Hollinghurst ◽  
Jane Lyons ◽  
Richard Fry ◽  
Ashley Akbari ◽  
Mike Gravenor ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTBackgroundMortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages, and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to infectious diseases.AimTo analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4-years.Study Design and SettingWe used anonymised Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and administrative data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020.MethodsWe calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted hazard ratios for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions.ResultsSurvival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1·72 (1·55, 1·90) compared to 2016. Compared to the general population in 2016-2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2·15 (2·11,2·20) in 2016-2019 to 2·94 (2·81,3·08) in 2020.ConclusionsThe survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Qionggui Zhou ◽  
Xuejiao Liu ◽  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Pei Qin ◽  
Yongcheng Ren ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: The impact of baseline hypertension status on the BMI–mortality association is still unclear. We aimed to examine the moderation effect of hypertension on the BMI–mortality association using a rural Chinese cohort. Design: In this cohort study, we investigated the incident of mortality according to different BMI categories by hypertension status. Setting: Longitudinal population-based cohort Participants: 17,262 adults ≥18 years were recruited from July to August of 2013 and July to August of 2014 from a rural area in China. Results: During a median 6-year follow-up, we recorded 1109 deaths (610 with and 499 without hypertension). In adjusted models, as compared with BMI 22-24 kg/m2, with BMI ≤18, 18-20, 20-22, 24-26, 26-28, 28-30 and >30 kg/m2, the HRs (95% CI) for mortality in normotensive participants were 1.92 (1.23-3.00), 1.44 (1.01-2.05), 1.14 (0.82-1.58), 0.96 (0.70-1.31), 0.96 (0.65-1.43), 1.32 (0.81-2.14), and 1.32 (0.74-2.35) respectively, and in hypertensive participants were 1.85 (1.08-3.17), 1.67 (1.17-2.39), 1.29 (0.95-1.75), 1.20 (0.91-1.58), 1.10 (0.83-1.46), 1.10 (0.80-1.52), and 0.61 (0.40-0.94) respectively. The risk of mortality was lower in individuals with hypertension with overweight or obesity versus normal weight, especially in older hypertensives (≥60 years old). Sensitivity analyses gave consistent results for both normotensive and hypertensive participants. Conclusions: Low BMI was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality regardless of hypertension status in rural Chinese adults, but high BMI decreased the mortality risk among individuals with hypertension, especially in older hypertensives.


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