The Challenges of Implementing a National Party Message: A Comparative Analysis of the 2014 and 2018 Midterm US Senate Elections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Conley
2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-633 ◽  
Author(s):  
WOOJIN MOON

Electoral competition is here specified as revolving around both candidate policy positions and non-policy issues.Two candidates spend their resources on non-policy issues to sway citizens' ideological voting decisions but they are constrained by their party activists who provide them with electoral resources. In this setting, a candidate with a resource advantage converges more towards the centre, but a candidate with a resource disadvantage diverges more from the centre. This asymmetry in two candidates' incentives to converge generates the result that the two candidates do not converge towards each other. To test these theoretical results, two-stage estimation is used in this article to solve the reciprocal relationship between policy moderation and campaign resources. This analysis produces strong empirical support for the model in the context of US Senate elections between 1974 and 2000.


2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 705-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
WOOJIN MOON

In this article, the reason why incumbent spending is less effective than challenger spending is explained. The argument is that incumbent spending efficiency depends on the marginality of seats: safe incumbent spending is less effective than marginal incumbent spending, since safe incumbents have to buy fewer extreme voters, whereas marginal incumbents can easily buy a larger number of swing voters. The analysis of the US Senate elections between 1974 and 2000 shows that safe incumbent spending is less effective than challenger spending, but marginal incumbent spending is not. The analysis also shows that the previous finding of less effective incumbent spending is largely due to the fact that the data for marginal and safe incumbents have been aggregated.


2014 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 334-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia V. Roehling ◽  
Mark V. Roehling ◽  
Ashli Brennan ◽  
Ashley R. Drew ◽  
Abbey J. Johnston ◽  
...  

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use data from the 2008 and 2012 US Senate elections to examine the relationship between candidate size (obese, overweight, normal weight) and candidate selection and election outcomes. Design/methodology/approach – Using pictures captured from candidate web sites, participants rated the size of candidates in the primary and general US Senate elections. χ2 analyses, t-tests and hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test for evidence of bias against overweight and obese candidates and whether gender and election information moderate that relationship. Findings – Obese candidates were largely absent from the pool of candidates in both the primary and general elections. Overweight women, but not overweight men, were also underrepresented. Supporting our hypothesis that there is bias against overweight candidates, heavier candidates tended to receive lower vote share than their thinner counterparts, and the larger the size difference between the candidates, the larger the vote share discrepancy. The paper did not find a moderating effect for gender or high-information high vs low-information elections on the relationship between candidate size and vote share. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to understand the process by which obese candidates are culled from the candidate pool and the cognitions underlying the biases against overweight candidates. Social implications – Because of the bias against obese political candidates, as much as one-third of the adult US population are likely to be excluded or being elected to a major political office. Originality value – This study is the first to use election data to examine whether bias based on size extends to the electoral process.


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 64-74
Author(s):  
Leighton Vaughan Williams ◽  
Blake Saville ◽  
Herman Stekler

In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, in forecasting the outcome of the 2010 US Senate elections. Prediction markets are speculative or betting markets created or employed for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions. To do this, we used data from the 2010 US Senate election campaigns, comparing the performance of an established prediction market with opinion polls. Overall we found no significant difference in the forecasting ability of the polls and prediction markets in the Senate races under examination.


2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-350
Author(s):  
Matthew L. Bergbower ◽  
Scott D. McClurg ◽  
Thomas M. Holbrook
Keyword(s):  

KWALON ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Kleinnijenhuis

Veyor® is a trademark of Idea Works, Inc. It is a text analysis program that performs, either by itself or in combination with programs such as Qualrus® and Globalpoint®, not only word category counts, but also sentiment analysis. According to a newspaper article about a recent application to a campaign for the US Senate elections (Reed, 2010), the sentiment towards the candidates in blogs and newspapers as extracted by Globalpoint® predicted the outcome of the elections more accurately than a telephone survey. Candidates received positive or negative points based on what was being said about key issues in the race and were categorized under headings such as 'government,' 'economy,' 'personal' and subsets such as 'free market' and 'tax issues'.


2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 745-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
JENNIFER VAN HEERDE ◽  
MARTIN JOHNSON ◽  
SHAUN BOWLER

Costs associated with voting affect an individual's willingness to turn out for an election as well as aggregate rates of voting across political jurisdictions. Barriers to participation also skew the social and economic composition of electorates. In this Research Note, we suggest that the costs of participation affect candidate behaviour as well – the strategic purposes of their appeals to voters and the media they choose to deliver messages. Why? By making the trip to the ballot box more or less difficult, electoral laws select voters with respectively less or more interest in and thus knowledge of politics. Given the systematic variations in how people with different levels of political knowledge learn during a campaign, we anticipate that election laws ultimately influence the communication tools that candidates use.We propose that the costs of voting have a compositional effect on electorates: as voting becomes increasingly difficult, the average level of political knowledge and interest among voters should decrease. This is not due to a micro-level effect in which registration laws somehow make individual voters smarter or better informed. Institutionally imposed costs simply affect who can and will vote. For a brief example, if one state charged its citizens £50 to vote while another paid its citizens £50 at their polling site, we would expect quite sizeable differences in turnout and composition of the electorate across the two states. The main contribution of this note, however, is our recognition that campaigns adapt to these differences in systematic ways. Real world differences in the cost of voting are not as great as these financial disparities, but the idea is the same: costs borne by individuals will have selection effects that produce different types of electorates and prompt different campaign styles by candidates.


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